Friday, April 30, 2010

Markets to take off in the green zone

Markets will be opening in the positive zone today but watch out for the later session. Markets are trying to shrugg off the bad news and take off on the good news. It is clearly evident from the last 4 months market movement.

May is here and traditional data shows there will huge sell-offs this month. Last year there was a massive rally contradicting the data. Few midcap results have been stunning in India.

Patni reported a 100% rise in net profit to Rs 157 crore for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010, on improved demand for outsourcing services as well as foreign currency gains. IT is definitely a sector to watch especially the second rung pack but one should keep an eye on the forex markets.

Among other sectors Autos are ruling the roast along with Auto ancillaries, Real estate is yet to pick except for bits and pieces of the country. Commodities are seen stretching from last year's pull back. We expect a bigger set back here.

Today's rally might lure many into the bull side brushing off the wednesday's slide, but this might be one trap you would want to miss out on. After all May is coming and that too after a massive pull back

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Volatility to rule, a flat close expected with positive bias

After the massacre on D-Street, bulls might try to recover some of the losses. US Markets closed in the green on Fed comments. In an interesting M&A across the Atlantic IT giant Hewlett Packard acquired smart phone manufacturer Palm Inc.

While European crisis is a reason for the market to correct, one should closely watch the developments in the continent. Spain's rating was cut by S&P yesterday and Soverign debts might just be another leg of crisis.

While US is relatively unimpacted till date, there might be surprises on the road as we move ahead. One should keep in mind the alarming debt levels of US & UK too.

Indian economy is on a revival path that too at a faster pace thanks to domestic spending. The economy is unlikely to take a severe blow irrespective of the crisis. But the impact of global equity meltdown might hit our markets sharply, providing us with an enormous oppurtunity for the medium term.

For not it is worth to the watch the game from the Balcony instead of getting into the ring

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Highly Volatile Session

Trade between levels Nifty below 5200 weakness start , NIfty opens near 5250 levels one can see small rebound , 5327 levels above strong only

15:23:26) STBT: BANKNIFTY Sell@ 9770 Target:9700 sl:9810

15:23:00) STBT: RIL Sell @ 1063 Target:1048 sl:1074

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

"The Stretch" continues, another boring day on cards

Majority Indian retail investors, like any other global equity investors were caught by surprise looking at the ferocity of the current rally. Many are waiting are the sidelines while few jumped in. A correction at this juncture will not only be considered as a life time oppurtunity but also it surely checks the health of the D-Street.

Punters and speculators are all over the street and SMS continue to flood in with messages like "No Questions. No Answers. Just buy this stock". Lot of
pump and dump schemes are running successfully. Don't get caught in the traps. While trading definitely might result in quick bucks. Getting in a illiquid stock might land one in trouble of getting stuck for years.

Indian economy is undoubtedly recovered extremely quick and fast enough but sustaining the growth for a longer period is what should be the major task of the
government. We witnessed a gust of foreign funds which created excess liquidity in the system and still not sucked in by RBI measures. Food inflation is still
at alarming levels.

Stocks to watch today : Rain Commodities, Mic Electronics, NIIT Technologies for 3-5 pct gains

Monday, April 26, 2010

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Friday, April 23, 2010

Another range bound day expected today

It was a roller coaster day in the global equity markets yesterday. Firstly Indian markets jumped big time intraday only to cool off during the fag end of the session. Simillarly US Markets were down 100 points at one point of the day only to close higher.

It is extremely annoying for bears to see the bulls coming out as winners in almost every occasion. From a technical perspective its bad news for bulls, the more this rally stretches with out meaningful correction the more chances of a prolonged correction when it actually starts.

BOA/Merril's upgrade of SBI yesterday at around 10.00 AM pushed the indices higher. It was clearly seen that some amount of short covering added fuel to the fire. We again re-iterate that cheap dollars are propping up the current global equity markets. We are just weeks away from a massive beating. We strictly advice investors to stay away from the equitymarkets.

Interesting block deals were witnessed in stocks like Unitech, Ruch Soya and Axis Bank. While sticking to quality names is relatively better than getting pulled into midcap mania.

Expect huge volatility to dominate this month's F&O expiry.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Get ready for another slide !!!!

Markets closed flat only to start sliding further after hours despite of better numbers from the likes of Ebay, Starbux and Qualcomm. This clearly
indicates tiredness in the rally. Asian markets are trading weak today.

Indian markets continued to trade with a negative bias and we might see 1 or 2 big down sessions coming on the way. Midcap rally continue to
gain momentum with more stocks joining the party. We expect this to burst in 1-2 week time frame.

Realty and banking counters attracted much interest yesterday from punters after the rate hike. Brandhouse Retails gained 18 pct to Rs 56 levels nearing our
target given some time back...We like the space and we have another stock in the sector, getting ready to change gears.

There are two ways to play this midcap rally. One to trade jumping in and out and other way is to sit out. Again we remind May is ahead and
remain extremely cautious.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

D-Street likely to go range bound

Nifty Calls given on sms only for paid memebers

US Markets are trying to settle down from a mini-Goldman Tsunami that tried to threaten the bulls. After hours tech giant Apple Inc hit the market with stunning numbers sending the shares higher.

Asian markets are currently trading higher on positive global cues and higher energy prices. RBI finally hiked interest rates, inline with expectations much to the relief of investing community. But the underlying strength is still missing and this month F&O expiry might be extremely volatile.

While tech sector in India too is showing highly positive momentum for the next 2-3 years, Realty is still not out of woods. Unitech's de-merger might show some interest in the stock. Midcaps continued to run and we attribute majority of it to operator driven moves. One should be extremely catious in dealing with such securities.

A correction is good for the health of global equity markets and it is hard to come. The more this gets pushed up the chances grow high for a mini-bubble. It is better to trade these markets instead of investing for short term. Long term investors can still call the shots

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Stop : 5-Day losing streak

US Markets took a U-turn in the afternoon session after sliding in the first half. Tomorrow is another critical day on wall street as Goldie
declares its numbers. It has been a concept of "selling on news" or discount theory at play on the wall street. Despite of better earnings from
IBM, Citigroup stocks seem to have discounted the same.

Back to domestic markets TCS posted impressive quarterly numbers though revenue growth is not exciting enough. RBI is likely to deliver the much
expected rate hike today. A 50 basis point cut is expected broadly and atleast for a day or two D-Street might try to recover part of the loses incurred
in the last 5 sessions.

As mentioned many times stay away from second rung stocks like HOVS etc which are purely controlled by operators. Realestate, banks are the two major sectors
for the day today. Auto might get the stick.

Stock to watch : Indowind Energy, DS Kulkarni, Gokul Refoils

Monday, April 19, 2010

Government" Sachs gets the stick, equities freak

(4/16/2010 8:43:03 AM): (4/9/2010 2:04:17 PM): guys buy only if ur convient with sl else remain nil coz v r expecting 200 points correction in nifty in coming days MARKET TO TEST 5175

Goldman Sachs popularly called as "Government" sachs by envies in the broking circles was charged on friday by SEC for fradulent dealings in CDOs. The news sent jitters across the globe pushing equities down in all major stock exchanges on the globe.

While the impact of the news ideally is not huge but the stock market is just looking for an excuse to correct and D-Street is already in the midst of a much awaited correction. RBI meeting tomorrow is likely to create high levels of volatility in the Indian market too.

We are uncomfortable with the current rally from the last 4-6 months though we participated in bits and pieces. Bears might have an upper hand in the next
2-3 months...

Friday, April 16, 2010

Talk about interest rate hike causes market jitters

Nifty above 5305 is in BULLS Hands

Stocks on D-Street might trade in a narrow range,after the Sensex lost more than a percent on Thursday due to profit booking. Do not expect a big rally in the indices, as it is clearly evident that there is lack of support at higher levels.

It looks like the market is in a selling mode, as traders expect the central bank to raise rates at its meeting on April 20. The inflation numbers for the month came in at a 17 month high adding fuel to fire. So the momentum is clearly in the favor of bears for now and any up move could be used to book profits or trim your holdings. There is good amount of selling in banking sector and this is likely to continue in the next week or so. Stay away from the Banking stocks.

There were some fire works in select Midcap stocks like Prime Securities, Kamat Hotels and Excel Infoways, which managed to register double digit gains. We recommend Shorting banks like IndusInd and Development Credit Bank for bears, who would like to short the stocks. It is not advisable to take bullish positions in the current market scenario and one could take stocks of the market in the later part of next week after the RBI meeting.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

FOR MEMBERS CHECK UR MESSENGER & SMS

FOR NON-PAID MEMBERS - WE POST OUR NIFTY VIEW EVERYDAY AT 2:45 PM - PAID MEMBER CHECK THEIR EMAIL - !! WE ALL DAY POST HERE THOSE CALL ARE HIT THE TGT OR STOP LOSS

THOSE WHO SUBSCRIBE OUR NEWS LETTER + OTHER PLANS THEY GET NEWS LETTER BY EMAIL AT 8:30 AM. >

Strong Quarterly numbers from JP Morgan and Intel lifted the spirits of investors on Wall Street sending Dow Jones higher by 100 points over the previous close to end at a 19 month high. The bull run started in March 2009, from the debris continues unabated.

While caution is the buzzword everywhere, many of the retail investors were left out in the current rally. Speculator/Operator activity is on a high and is likely to continue for some more time..We recommend investors to remind the popular phrase "Sell in May and go away". Valuations are no doubt stretched and stockmarkets need a cool off.

Given the current strength in cheap dollars driven rally, it is out of one's imagination how and when the correction would hit. While raising interest rates in the US is likely to be one key trigger, Chinese GDP has outperformed expectations and too much growth too early is definitely not what any central bank wants...Watch out for interest rate jitters in the next one month..

Indian economy is growing leaps and bounds but needs a cool off too before the next take off...Raising like a phoenix is dangerous in terms of technicals. V-Shaped economic recoveries ideally lack sustainability.

Stocks to watch today : FSL, Kohinoor Foods

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Follow nifty trend just dont blindly short/long

US Markets managed to close above 11,000 benchmark, its 18 month high. But as usual the rally looks tired and might crack down on any hint of bad news. Asia is trading down with Nikkei sliding 110 points at the time of writing.

For the time being ULIP issue is burried with the Finance Ministry jumping in to broker a deal between SEBI and IRDA.

Infosys results will flag off the earnings season today. While Infosys as a trend decider has lost charm in the previous 2-3 earnings it still commands high respect from the IT group. Expect Infy to post better numbers while guidance may be muted and concerns might be raised in the currency front.

As always in this kind of run in the market we find many junkies moving up. The current rally is no exception and one should exercise caution here.

Keep a tab on hotel stocks Hotel Leela, Royal Orchid Hotels, Indian Hotels etc

Monday, April 12, 2010

IIP numbers todays and Infosys result Tommorrow

FROM 12 APRIL WE UPDATE OUR THIS FREE NEWS LETTER + CALL'S AT 2:45 PM - THOSE WHO SUBSCRIBE OUR NEWS LETTER + OTHER PLANS THEY GET NEWS LETTER BY EMAIL AT 8:30 AM

Nifty strong only above 5405

Reliance Ind might see strong interest after the company agreed to pay $1.7 billion to form a joint venture to buy a stake in a shale project that could hold enough natural gas to satisfy U.S. demand for a decade.Any upmove in Reliance stock from Rs 1,123.00 level might give a big boost to the Nifty.

Ballarpur Ind is one stock that is looking hot after the stock gained more than 18 percent on a volume of over 34 million shares. The stock could consolidate at the current level of Rs 38, before making a further move up to Rs 46- Rs 47 levels. BAG Films, which was recommended by us in our prior reviews is another stock that is looking technically explosive, even at Sr 28 levels.

Brandhouse Retail and Ruchi Soya are other stocks that look interesting. Our recommendation Prime Focus scaled to news highs for the year and gained more than 13 percent to settle at RS 349 level.GATI , Rolta and Essar Oil are some of the stocks to watch out from 1-2 day, trading perspective.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Catious but a green start on cards

After flirting with the negative territory in the last two days, Indian stocks are getting ready for another leg of upmove. US Markets opened red yesterday only to close midly in positive zone.

While the current stretch in the global equities is driven by lower interest rates we believe soon (may be in a month) we will see a outflow of funds from global equities.

Speculators are ruling the roast on D-Street looking at the kind of stocks moving up. The story repeats and we advise investors to be extremely catious in illiquid stocks.

Two bright sectors : Cement && Realty sectors are looking good and we might see a spurt in both the sectors any time. Yesterday's trading action clearly points to an upmove in these 2 counters.

Stocks to watch out for intraday : Indowind Energy, Midday, Action Constructions, Geojit BNP Paribas

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Indian Equities likely to take a back seat

US markets tanked today after a dismal crude oil inventory report. While US stocks continued their extended run except for a 10 day battering in June one should not forget the current rally is not powered by volumes.

Coming to Indian markets the midcap run is likely to continue further given the FII inflows. There are many unknown names that are running, reminding of yesteryear's crash landings. The next leg of rally will turn to stocks below Rs 20 and that signals a temporary halt to the current upward momentum.

Indian economy is undoubdtedly back on track but the current spike in equities do not augur well. Cheap dollars are driving the global equity markets and most of the central bankers know this pretty well. We will witness the rate hikes soon which might curb the inflows.

Stocks to watch intraday : Kingfisher Airlines, IL&FS Transportation, Hotel Leela, Jagran Prakashan, Anant Raj Industries

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Stock market indices facing stiff resistance at current levels

Stock market indices are likely to consolidate at the current levels on Wednesday,as we are witnessing constant supply at higher levels. The mark is looking for fresh triggers to make a move and there are none in the vicinity at this point of time.Expect the Sensex to trade in a band of 0.5 percent

The Sensex has spent most of its time close to the dotted line yesterday, although there were some bright spots like the 'Realty'with help from DLF and Reliance Infra. As expected Midcap and Smallcap excelled even in a lacklustre market. We expect the trend to continue as traders and speculators are flocking to second rung stocks in hopes of making some quick money.

Shares of the new listing Persistent systems closed at Rs 404, which is a premium of more than 30 percent from the issue price. We expect the stock to make a move to Rs 430 level intraday, and traders to should exit at these levels. Our pick Prime Focus jumped 13 percent on huge volumes and we see this stock going places soon. Hold on to tis baby. Essel Propack, Essar shipping and Surya Roshni were other midcaps that attracted active traders.

Our pick HEG which was mentioned couple of days ago at Rs 340 levels reached Rs 363 yesterday and we recommend holding the stock for couple of days for further gains.Indo Asian Fuse Gear and Crest Animation are two stocks that might be worth watching for traders today

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Stocks to hold on to their gains

Stocks in Mumbai are set to hold on to their gains after a big day yesterday. We are witnessing a lot of interest in the Midcap space as investors are getting ready to place risky bets. Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to gain more than 0.5 percent or nearly 100 points for the day

The Sensex has shown a good pattern all day yesterday gaining ground as the day progressed. Realty and Oil stocks stole the limelight with the sectoral indices gaining 2.6 percent and 2 percent respectively.Reliance Infra and DLF were among the notable gainers in the Realty space.

Midcaps are the sweet spot in the market, with lot of stocks showing great strength. Rohit Ferro is one stock that looks good as the stock has broken the Rs 50 mark and is looking explosive at the current market price of Rs 51.50.Our personal favorite Jubilant Food works has reached anew band now and Rs 390 is within the reach for the stock. Omintech Info, Omax Auto ans India Glycols are in strong hands from a short term perspective.AllCargo Logistics, Pipavav Shipyard look good from a short term trading perspective. We stock to the call we gave on HEG as we think that there is some more steam left in this scrip.

Monday, April 5, 2010

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY:

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY:

Nifty is in Overbought position again on weekly Charts But the most Important thing is that 50 Day Simple Moving average crossed 200 Day Simple Moving average, Now it moving further upward direction. This crossover is happen in 2003 when the previous Bull Market started and continued for next 5 years till 2008. So one should hope for good days are ahead.

Weekly Stochastic is in the upper Over-bought zone, but as was the case of last year during the months of April 2009 to June 2009 & again from August 2009 till October 2009 slow Stochastic continued to remain in the upper zone giving mega bull move to the markets. Similarly weekly W%R has entered the upper zone & is likely to remain in the upper zone for many more weeks as was during April to June and August to October 2009. These are extremely bullish indications for next few weeks.
Trend Indicator the Weekly ADX has flat with positive DMI at 26 and negative DMI at 18. Weekly MACD is about to generate a bullish indication as signal line is about to cross MACD line upwards both being above the neutral line.

1. Nifty Resistance – 5307 – 5311 – 5345 – 5362 - 5395
2. Nifty Supports – 5262 – 5245 – 5205 – 5180 - 5160

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY:

The Daily Indicator somehow weak compare to Weekly Indicators, slow Stochastic going downwards from high of 85 now %K and %D both line falling, now %K at 47 and %D at 59. Daily RSI at 66 is giving a bullish signal as it is moving at upper zone. Daily ADX both positive DMI and Negative DMI moved to kiss each others. MACD is about to generate a bearish signal indication as signal line is about to cross MACD line downwards both being above the neutral line.

As far as nifty not breach 5187 till one should stand Bullish in Markets

NOW NIFTY,
iF YOU SEE MONTH BY MONTH THEN LAST 2 MONTHS (FEB & MARCH) WAS MEGHA BULLISH.. IN FEBRUARY NIFTY LOW WAS AT 4675 AND CLOSING WAS AT 4922 WHERE MARCH MONTH LOW WAS 4935 AND CLOSING WAS 5249. ITS A GAIN OF 247 POINTS IN FEBRUARY AND 327 POINTS GAIN IN MARCH.

YOU CAN ALSO NOTICE THAT IN MARCH NIFTY NOT BREACHES FEB MONTH CLOSING, SO ITS A MEGA BULLISH MONTH FROM STARTING.


NIFTY ALREADY FORMED FALLING WEDGES ON CHARTS. SO TAKE OPPORTUNITY OF THIS...

MANY - MANY SHARE ALSO BREACHES THE MAJOR SUPPORTS... WE TRY TO GIVE THOSE SHARE SHORT CALL IN OUR TODAY'S CALLS.

Stocks to open higher on Monday morning

Stocks on D-Street are likely to open higher following positive global cues and better than expected unemployment data from the U.S. We expect the benchmark index or the sensex to gain more than 0.5 percent or neary 85 points for the day

Gains in IT and Consumer Durables stocks helped the benchmark cover decent ground on Thursday. It is worth noting that the attention has suddenly shifted to Smallcap and Midcap stocks with the Midcap and Smallcap stocks gaining 0.9 and 2.4 percent respectively.

We strongly believe that there will be a huge rally in speculative stocks this week, as the complacency factor in the market is too high and this has encouraged speculators to get back in to the market. Traders might have a good time minting money if they are willing to take risk and can bet some money in second and third rung stocks. The key is to get out of these scrips after 10 to 20 percent gains and not be greedy and get stuck for life.

Some of the Midcaps that showed significant strength were BAG Films (mentioned in our Wednesday's review), Man Aluminum, Mudra Life, Vakrangee Software and Jayswal Neco. We like the Jayswal Neco and Vakrangee from a trading perspective, as we see a fresh break out from the current levels. Investors who would like to play it safe could bet on HEG, Unitech and DB Corp, form a short term perspective

Thursday, April 1, 2010

WE STARTED CALL / PUT CALLS

NOW, NIFTY ON CHARTS : NOW THE CLEAR CUT LAXMAN REKHA FOR NIFTY IS AT 5290 - (CLOSING BASIS) ANY ONE CAN BOLDLY SHORT NIFTY ANY NEARER TO 5290 WITH STOP LOSS OF
5282 & 5295


NIFTY ALREADY FORMED FALLING WEDGES ON CHARTS. SO TAKE OPPORTUNITY OF THIS...

MANY - MANY SHARE ALSO BREACHES THE MAJOR SUPPORTS... WE TRY TO GIVE THOSE SHARE SHORT CALL IN OUR TODAY'S CALLS.

TODAY....
TODAY NIFTY AGAIN MOVES IN NARROW RANGE IN BETWEEN 5282 AS MAX AS 5294
(AND MAX TO MAX 5305) TO 5220 – !! ANY BREACH OF 5205 STARTS HAVOC
PANIC SITUATION IN MARKET.

1. NIFTY RESISTANCE: 5265,5282, 5295, 5305, 5317, 5328,
2. NIFTY SUPPORT: 5245, 5233, 5223 AND 5205 ( ANY BELOW OF 5205 CREATE
PANIC SITUATION IN NIFTY THEN SUPPORTS AT 5195, 5180, 5160)

1. SHORT NIFTY 2BOVE 5275 SL 5305 TGT 5245 / 5235 / 5225
OPTION STRETEGY: BUY 5200PUT @80 & 5400CALL@ 46 2 : 1 RATIO
COMINE PREMIUM = 80 X2 = 160 + 46 = 206,
INVESTMENT: 50 NIFTY SHARE: 1 LOT X 206 = 10,300
TGT 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, SL = ZERO
AS TODAY IS 1ST APRIL SO AND THE PREMIUM DOWN AS TIME DECADE!!
SO NEED FASTEST TRADING IN THIS.NEED TO PROFIT 3,000/ – 2500/ EVERY DAY.
THOSE WHO PARTICIPATE IN THIS CALL – CONTACT ME AT YAHOO MESSANGER.

2. SHORT BANK NIFTY CMP 9460 SL 9518 TGT 9400 / 9350 / 9300
OPTION STRETEGY: BUY 9200PUT @ 91 & 9500CALL@ 185
2: 1 RATIO
COMINE PREMIUM = 91 X2 = 182 + 185 = 367,
INVESTMENT: 50 NIFTY SHARE: 1 LOT X 367 = 18,350
TGT 30,000, 40,000 SL = ZERO
AS TODAY IS 1ST APRIL SO AND THE PREMIUM DOWN AS TIME DECADE!!
SO NEED FASTEST TRADING IN THIS.NEED TO PROFIT 5,000/ – 4000/ EVERY
DAY. THOSE WHO PARTICIPATE IN THIS CALL – CONTACT ME AT YAHOO MESSANGER.



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