Friday, December 31, 2010

Year 2010 : Nifty up 18 pct, Sensex up 17 pct

Dalal Street might wrap up the last day of the year with a ranged trade as traders look forward to new year celebrations. Year 2010 delivered excellent returns to investors.

Nikkei and Kospi were closed today on account of holidays.

News Bytes

* iGate to control Patni with 60% stake buy

* Citi, Goldman plan to buy 5% in Reliance Broadcast

* Manganese Ore in talks with Gabon: source

* SBI to raise Rs 12,000 cr from bonds by Mar 2012

* K S Oils to allot 1.64 cr shares to promoters

* SSWL commences Wheels Rims supply to Tata Motors

* Food inflation accelerates to 10-week high

* PNB seeks partners for insurance business

Market Outlook

Nifty delivered a surprise visit to 6100 levels, hitting all call writers till 6000 levels. We believe Markets might see new highs soon. With fresh inflows expect in January this time it might be unstoppable for Markets to hit new highs.

Stay invested.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Nifty eyes 6100

Dalal Street is likely to head north after excellent gains yesterday with Nifty eyeing 6100, causing pain to 6000 strike call writers. On the wall street stocks indexes finish with small gains and remain on pace for their best December in nearly 20 years.

The Standard and Poor's 500-stock index is up 6.7 percent for the month. If it closes Friday at this level or higher, it will be the index's best December return since 1991. Japanese stocks declined as auto shares decline on a strengthening yen and concern about Chinese moves to curb car-buying.

News Bytes

* Suzlon sees revival, needs more cash just to survive

* PNB still interested in insurance sector, seeks JV

* NTPC likely to float Rs 18,000-cr tender

* SAIL FPO in Jan, ONGC in March, IOC deferred

* Godrej Properties signs development pact with Addison & Co

* Unity Infra to launch three Nagpur malls by mid-2012

* India Inc raises Rs2 trillion in decade via IPOs

Markets - Expiry moves, volumes low

FIIs were busy seen buying Index Futures and Index options as if it was a regular trading day. Volumes were on the higher side in the F&O segment. Major players appear to be active in the F&O segment. Speculative bets are back in the reckoning but we advice investors to stay cautious with these counters. Choose stocks with good fundamentals.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Another choppy session on cards

Dalal Street is likely to extend the choppy ride with another lacklustre session thanks to simillar cues from global equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up to hit a fresh 2010 closing high in thin trading on Tuesday.

Asian Markets are trading flat on Wednesday.

News Bytes

* Gitanjali in talks to raise $100 mn

* HPCL, Mittal plan IPO for Bathinda refinery in 2011

* M&M faces $290 millon lawsuit by Reva ally in New York

* Indiabulls renews partnership with RSA

* Gayatri Projects bags order worth Rs 113 cr

* MFIs seek freeze on repayment to Banks

* MOIL invites bids to form JVs for acquisition.

* US firm buys 60% stake in Nitin Cylinders

Markets - Flat but exciting times ahead

The current boredom on Dalal Street has not been witnessed from the past two years with majority of the investors taking a break from trading. We write time and again that exciting times are ahead of us. It is time to accumulate good stocks and we advice investors to avoid this year's top two sectors Banking and Automobile

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Street's subdued saga likely to extend

Dalal Street is likely to trade in a band yet again on flattish global cues as majority of the retail investors and FIIs are holidaying. China's central bank could raise interest rates to alleviate negative real interest rates in the first half of next year while inflation pressures are large, the central bank-backed Financial News reported Tuesday. Asian markets are currently trading mixed today.

News Bytes

* Tata Steel may cut debt in Riversdale sale

* PFC & REC set sights on bank foray, to hire consultants

* Ramky mulls hiving off road, industrial park business

* CIL's overseas acquisitions in 2011-12

* RBI cuts SLR for RRBs to 24% to inject liquidity

* KEC Intl wins orders worth Rs 1,018 cr

* iGate, Apax close to buying 63% of Patni Computer

Markets - All roads point to new highs next month

We expect markets to hit new highs before the budget. One can see pre-budget rally from the second week. IT stocks look promising, so are Oil related stocks. Infrastructure and Realty are the two dark horse sectors while Banking and Auto are most likely to underperform going forward

Monday, December 27, 2010

Subdued start on cards, China hikes interest rates

Dalal Street is likely to open flat on Monday morning on mixed Asian markets and flattish US cues. Crude Oil is likely to witness a sharp rally as Arctic weather invades US East Coast, threatening to snarl air and ground transportation as holiday travelers scramble to find ways to get home.

Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday morning.

News Bytes

* RCF scanning price asked for Russian mine stake

* Yes Bank asks MFIs to return Rs 100 cr loans

* Manufacturing sector posts high growth in April-Dec: CII

* NMDC likely to hike iron ore prices by 3%

Markets - Look forward to underperforming sectors next year

We believe Infrastructure helped with Realty sectors are likely to lead the rally on the street. With major FIIs turning their heads to these underperforming sectors, we expect Banks and Autos to hand on the baton. Banking sector is unlikely to shine in the next year on account of lower margins.

Nifty should close above 6020 for a bull run. Given the low volume trade, we expect Nifty to again fall back below 6000 levels before expiry.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Another subdued session in the offing on Dalal Street

Indian equities might continue to languish near the current levels in the next 4-5 trading sessions on flattish global cues. On Wall Street stocks finished mixed but were little moved by Thursday's deluge of economic data as volumes thinned on the last trading day before the three-day Christmas holiday. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday morning.

News Bytes

* Strides to up stake in Australian pharma to 94%

* Titan to double Sonata sales over 3-4 yrs

* Temasek buys 3% pie in Max India

* GPI, ITC resume cigarette production

* Sugar hits fresh 30-year high, supply tight

* Adani Power awaits environ min nod for Bhadreshwar plant

* Glenmark receives USFDA nod for three drugs

* IOC's Rs 19,000-cr FPO hits subsidy block

Markets - Hanging on

While we expected a band of 5800-6000 for Nifty for this monthe expiry, it appears breaking 5900 on Nifty is also getting tougher on each passig day. Sugar stocks spiked up in the last hour of trade. Keep an eye on the same.

Stocks to watch for in today's trade include Ballarpur Indutries, OBC, Kingfisher Air, DCB

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Crude gets rude, trading at 2-year high

Dalal Street is likely to open flat yet again and might trade in a narrow band with a positive bias as Asian markets are trading in green. Overnight Wall Street finished off with marginal gains. Year end activity is taking a toll on volumes in all global markets.

U.S. crude oil futures prices extended gains and rose to a 26-month peak above $90 on Wednesday in choppy trading after government data showed crude stockpiles fell more than expected last week, a day after industry data showed a similar drop by inventories.

News Bytes

* Acquired Griffin for A$750 million: Lanco

* RBI sees liquidity easing in Jan

* 2 killed in Dr Reddy's nitrogen gas leak

* RBI bans FII purchases in IndusInd Bank

* Fortis Global to buy 30% in Aussie firm for Rs 450 cr

* M&M, Gulf Oil launch co-branded diesel engine oil

* Radico in advanced tie-up talks with 3 intl firms

* PTC India''s arm files draft prospectus with SEBI

Market Outlook - Choppy

We expect the Markets to display same kind of volatility we have witnessed yesterday but with in a band. There is no point in panicking and instead pick stocks good fundamental stories.

Few stocks to watch in today's trade include Indiabulls Financial, Kingfisher Airlines, Hind Motors and Navneet

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Nifty to face resistance at 6020

Dalal Street is likely to witness a volatile session today with Bull pointing guns towards 6020 level for Nifty, considered as a key resistance level. Overnight US Markets closed in the green. We expect a good rally in the US stocks in the next three months.

News Bytes

* Coal India close to buying 15% stake in Oz mine

* Satyam minority investors oppose merger with TechM

* Moser Baer commissions India's largest solar plant

* Dr Reddy’s inks pact with Russian pharma firm

* Patel Engg-led consortium bags Rs 300-cr order

* Dr Reddy's inks pact with Russian firm R-Pharm

* Essar bids for Shell's Stanlow refinery

Outlook

For today broking stocks might attract interest in conjunction with Japanese broking stocks. Essar Oil might witness some action after reports of UK acquisition is doing rounds. Overall we believe this market is for investors with a little patience and one can witness a big action in the next three months especially in the small and midcap stocks.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Second rung IT to be the hot favourite

Indian equities might gap up marginally on Tuesday morning as Asian markets are trading in green with Nikkei leading the charge. Wall Street closed mixed on Monday.

News Bytes

* Jindal Power IPO likely in next calendar year: JSPL

* Ranbaxy’s South African JV bags Rs 603 cr order

* Tata Chemicals to buy British Salt for Rs 660 cr

* Reliance Industries plans to shut 200,000 bpd FCC

* Lanco Infra ties up funding for Maharashtra power project

* Diamond Power eyes turnkey to double order book by March

Markets : Not much to talk about

While markets continue to trade ranged, we believe second rung IT stocks are ready for a take-off. Yesterday's trade pointed towards a big move soon in this space. We expect more consolidation in this space going into year 2011.

Place your bets on second rung IT in the short term

Monday, December 20, 2010

Expect subdued activity in the coming weeks

Dalal Street is likely to open flat, inline with the global markets on account of listless trading due to "December" factor. From Wall Stret to Dalal Street there is not much to expect in the coming two weeks unless there is a major global event. Asian Markets are trading flat today.

News Bytes

* Patni Computer bid in last stage, new owner likely this week

* Moser Baer Solar plans up to $600 mn capex

* Gold jewellery sales increase 20% in last fortnight

* Ranbaxy to recall batches of anti-cholesterol drug from UK

* PTC finance arm to float, parent’s stake to reduce

Market Outlook

We expect markets to trade in the range of 5800-6000, taking the pain to option traders. This month's expiry has another ten days to go. We advice investors to start picking up stocks as New year is most likely to rock. We are expecting massive inflows in the second week of Janunary

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Spain fails to impact Wall Street

Wall Street closed marginally in the red despite of warning from Moody's that it would downgrade Spain. Meanwhile "all is not well" at Dalal Street which might witness further selling pressure today.

News Bytes


* RIL, Tata Steel among top advance tax payers

* BoB inks Spanish JV to ride credit card boom

* Lanco Infratech to acquire Australian coal mine

* Essar, Kobe join hands to develop auto steel

Markets - Choppy but not much downside


We expect markets to trade with a negative bas. Having said that we do not expect major downsides from current levels. Investors should start picking stocks at these levels as come January we will believe renewed FII selling will take markets to higher levels.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

All eyes on RBI policy meeting tomorrow

Indian Equities might open flat on Wednesday morning on no major news flow but all eye would be set on RBI policy meet tomorrow.

Fed statement re-iterated job market weakness and low inflation, the Fed characterized the U.S. expansion as "continuing," a modest upgrade from its November description of the recovery as "slow."

Wall Street closed marginally in the green. Asian Indices are trading flat on Wednesday morning.

News Bytes :

* LIC Housing Finance approves 1:5 stock split

* Mallya stake in Kingfisher to drop below 50%

* TCS bags $100mn tech deal from Deutsche Bank

* Eveready hikes prices of batteries by up to 9%

* BPCL increases petrol prices by Rs 2.95 a litre

* Neyveli in search for JV partner for overseas acquisitions

Markets - Caution Today

After three consecutive days of rally, Markets are likely to take a pause before the next move. On the contrary it is advisable to stick to strong midcaps for now. Do not over trade and choppy sessions are expected for rest of the december.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

D-Street to open flat, Midcaps to extend pullback

Indian equities are likely to open near the touchline on Tuesday on the back of flattish global markets and lack of news flow. Wall Street closed mixed but again near to the the previous close though Nasdaq snapped nine-day winning streak. Asian markets are trading flat on Tuesday.

News Bytes

* DB Corp launches Dainik Bhaskar in Jamshedpur

* GVK bid process for Mumbai airport hospitality zone soon

* Lincoln Pharma ties up with US based Human Biosciences Inc

* Hinduja’s flagship Ashok Leyland has bagged an order for 600 vehicles from VRL Logistics of Hubli

* DoT rejects Liberty bid for ITI takeover

Markets - Flat but volatile

We believe Markets are likely to trade flat atleast for the first half of the trade with the focus shifting to mid and smallcap stocks. These stocks will see consolidation after this pull back rally. Rest of the month we expect a ranged trade with volatility in the next one week to ten days. Investors should get ready for the January rally by accumulating stocks with solid fundamentals.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Hesitant start on cards, Asia trades in green

Dalal Street might open marginally in the red on Monday morning as follow up buying might not be evident after Friday's decent pull back. Wall Street closed in the green on Friday, hitting a 2 year highs might see some profits off the table in the next couple of weeks due to window dressing.

Asian Markets lead by Shangai are trading positively.

News Bytes

* Coal India, NPC mull JV for nuclear power

* Redington India Promoters' Sell 14% Stake

* Fortis Healthcare Acquires UP-Based Vivekanand Hospital

* Sequoia Bought 7% Stake In Hindustan Glass

* SEBI tightens promoter norms

* K Sera Sera on buying spree, acquires coal mine in Indonesia

* L&T, Russian firm in Nuclear Power JV

Markets - Ranged trade with volatility

Markets are likely to shed some weight today. FIIs were short in Index futures on Friday. While volumes were low during Friday's rally, Nifty at 5600-5700 might provide the much needed support. Indian investors might not see major moves above 6000 levels for Nifty before this year end.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Dubai debt concerns mounting, Dead Cat bounce on cards

November has created ripples among Indian investment community especially the second half of the month was night marish on massive profit booking by FII's. Nifty lost nearly 9 pct from the top.

While Wall Street is closed on Thursday on account of Thanks Giving, Asian markets opened marginally in the green on Friday.

Dubai - Debt concerns

Last November Dubai World, the conglomerate with emirate’s government as one of the shareholder, startled global markets by delaying payments on its debt. In September, Dubai World struck a deal with its creditors to restructure about $24.9 billion of liabilities. While Dubai World’s agreement with lenders helped improve sentiment, concerns over debt loads in the emirate have not gone away.

In recent weeks, Dubai Group has reportedly missed loan payments. We do not expect Dubai debt concerns to raise alarms.

Dalal Street - Oversold?

No doubt Nifty and Sensex are oversold, we believe there will be a surprise rally soon. Nifty might lose another 100-150 points from the current levels. We see this sell-off as the final oppurtunity for investors to get on board. Except for IIP data none of the concerns expressed in the recent days including scams, war tensions, FII year end selling has any role to play in the growth of the economy.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Investors likely to panic on Housing loan Scam, Govt. plays it down

Indian equities are going through a rough phase with negative news flow hitting the street, resulting in a big underperformance when compared to global peers. Wall Street finished in green yesterday with gains of above one percent.

Asian markets are trading marginally in the green today.

Negative news flow

It all started with weak IIP Data, followed by 2G-Scam, Korean tensions and the latest being housing loan scam. Government yesterday announced this is a case of bribery and has nothing to do with the system. The quantum of scam is reported to be nearly Rs 2,000 Crore.

Which started as a correction is likely to extend as a slide. The housing loan scam is no big deal in countries like India and is well known to the investing community. But the timing of the news is a concern. We are witnessing a massive sell-off almost every day by the FIIs.

While for today Nifty might inch towards 5900 levels, where the second Max pain is located. Overall it is advisable for investors to start cherry picking at a very slow pace and continue the job on all further downsides

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

F&O Expiry to add fuel to Korean fire

Dalal Street is likely to open marginally in the green and might hit the roller coaster again, thanks to the Futures & Options expiry slated for tomorrow.

US Markets sank Tuesday as a clash in the Korea peninsula was added to the list of uncertainties weighing on investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell

142.21, or 1.27%, to 11, 036.37 and the S&P 500 lost 16.81, or 1.40%, to 1,181.03. The Nasdaq dropped 37.07, or 1.46%, to 2,494.95.

Asia developed cold feet on Wednesday morning with Nikkei sliding 1.18 pct while Shangai is trading in the green.

DII Buying

It is interesting to see the Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) picking stocks during the panic session on Wednesday. The next rally we believe will be triggered by DIIs and FIIs who are selling now to cash their chips for the year end may have to pay premium for buying Indian equities.

Coal India

Coal India Ltd. is open to acquiring U.S.-based Massey Energy Co , the Business Standard reported on its website Tuesday, citing the Indian company's chairman, Partha Bhattacharyya.

Market Outlook

Though Indian Markets are not out of woods, Investors can start cherry picking with the expectation of another 4-5 pct downside in the Indices. Only bravehearts can trade in this market.

It would be interesting to see if Nifty closes around 6000 or 5900 levels for the expiry.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Mumbai realty stocks likely to witness further interest

Dalal Street is likely to open in the red on Tuesday morning on negative global cues with consolidation the name of the game after a big move yesterday. Wall Street recovered from a 100 point loss on Dow Jones. After hours Hewlett-Packard posted strong quarterly results.

Nikkei is closed today on account of a holiday while rest of the Asian markets are trading in the red Tuesday morning.

Stocks in News :


* The Dainik Jagran group, publishers of India’s third-largest Hindi daily, has bought a stake in Chennai-based EdServ, an education and placement company.

* RPG group-owned Zensar Technologies acquired US-based infrastructure management company PSI Holding , which operates under the name Akibia, in an allcash deal of $66 million, the Indian software exporter said at a conference on Monday.

Markets - Next move critical

The next move of the Market is critical. With expiry on Thursday, major slide in the indices can be ruled out. volatility is likely to stay there but do not expect major moves in the market for the next three trading sessions.

Mumbai realty stocks are likely to be in limelight after Navi Mumbai airport news yesterday. Also stocks like GVK, GMR might see some interest too.

Monday, November 22, 2010

China ups Reserve Ratio, Asian Markets trade in green

Irish government said Sunday that it will start formal negotiations with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund over a financial rescue package, pushing speculators to look forward to other European countries like Portugal and Spain.

Portugal is seen as the next domino likely to fall once Ireland’s debt crisis is resolved, but the true showdown will pit bond-market vigilantes against Spain. We believe if Spain goes down, that would be the end of the bull run across the globe.

On Friday US Markets closed in the green after China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced the year’s fifth hike in the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points effective November 29.

Asian Markets are trading in the green today with the exception of China.

Dalal Street : Whats happening ?

Indian Markets are in no mood to take any positive global cues and ready to slide on the slightest negatives cues. Key technical levels were breached and we might see more sell-off in the coming days. Year FII selling is blamed to be one of the reasons for the current slide, there is no buying support for the markets on every slide.

While a target of 5600 is doing rounds, it is too early to come out with targets. Investors should stay cautious and pick good stocks at lower levels. We continued our Wait and Watch mode and believe the current volatility gives no room for traders.

Friday, November 19, 2010

While global markets go ga ga, Dalal Street sees a soft opening

US Markets had a field day on Thursday as worries about Ireland's debt situation eased and better than expected jobless claims data.

Asian markets are trading higher on Friday on global cues. Barring Dalal Street rest of the global markets clocked decent gains on Thursday. Looking at Singapore Nifty at 07:00 AM IST today, the cues suggest another volatile day and traders are cautious to take positions to the upside.

Yesterday's rocky session caught traders on the wrong foot and we advice investors to stay put and cherry pick stocks at lower levels. While the current sell-off is not driven by any fundamental reasons, the year-end profit booking seems to have advanced and Chinese rate hike fears is just an excuse.

Midcaps to stay weak

During the current conditions Midcaps and Smallcaps will be out of favour and action will be more focussed on Largecap stocks. It is indeed a good time to add quality midcap stocks.

Inflation data is softening and thats good news for investors. The data will relieve RBI from considering another rate hike in the near term. FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures, Index Options and in Cash segment.

We expect market to open flat despite amazing global cues and staying short at these oversold levels might be a little tricky but certainly momentum is not showing any bullish moves.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Nikkei, the only Asian market weathering the storm

Bears are likely to dictate terms in the early session when Dalal Street opens for trade on Thursday morning on weak Asian cues.

Except for Japanese market Nikkei, rest of the Asian markets were hit really hard in the past one week. Wall Street closed the day flat on good retail sales numbers.

Traders eyeing technicals

While Nifty has huge support at 5970 level the next major support stands at 5840, we still believe that Bulls have an out and out chance in today's trade to protect the major support level today.

Traders should keep an eye on next week's F&O expiry. For now the "Max Pain" for Nifty stands at 6000 levels and it is worth noticing that FIIs were net buyers in Index options and Index Futures on Wednesday.

Chinese rate hike fears are overblown and we expect things to settle down soon. Investors are adviced to start adding stocks to their kitty but avoid buying at a single price inorder to tackle market corrections

Monday, November 15, 2010

Calm after storm, Dalal Street to open flat

Mumbai stocks are most likely to open marginally in the green after Asian markets are trading positively on Ireland bail out news. Japan's gross domestic product grew 0.9% in the July-September quarter, picking up from 0.4% growth in the previous three months, pushing Japanese stocks higher.

Irish Bailout

While till yesterday Irish officials were denying EU bailout, Germany pushed to accept a bailout and help reverse a bond sell-off across the euro-region’s periphery.

Dalal Street - Subdued open on cards

We expect Indian markets to open in the green after severe battering in the last two trading sessions. It is not advisable to go short at higher levels atleast for today. One should be cautious with commodity stocks along with Banking stocks.

While Finance minister's comments about 9 pct growth might not bring too much cheer from the market, dead cat bounce might bring in some gains to the market. We believe the trend would be clear only after Wednesday and one should be cautious in the next three trading sessions.

We do not have a second thought in saying this correction is just a passing cloud and Indian markets will be back on track soon

Friday, November 12, 2010

GMR might sell Intergen stake to China's Huaneng Power

Dalal Street might be heading for another gap down open despite of flattish global cues on the the last trading day for the weak, thanks to hectic selling in Index futures by the FIIs.

Wall Street received a jolt in the form of Cisco's weak estimates but recovered from the lows of the day. Asian markets are trading down marginally.

GMR to sell Intergen stake

Chinese utility company Huaneng Power emerged the highest bidder for the purchase of 50 per cent stake in InterGen, which was put on the block by GMR. Investment banking sources say Huaneng one of the largest power companies in China is known to have put in a bid for as much as $1.5 billion.

GMR bought the stake for $1.1 billion in October 2008.

Intensive Selling

Yesterday's afternoon session reminded the days of Euro crisis and we witnessed a big round of basket selling. We believe the selling is something related to domestic factors and nothing to do with global crisis or Kospi's slide in yesterday's trade. Year end profit booking is one thing we can think of and slow down of inflows due to holiday season might added weight to the selling.

Current selling should be treated as a good oppurtunity for adding fundamentally sound counter

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Diwali boosts October car sales, US Dollar loses steam

Wall Street closed marginally higher on wednesday as the US Dollar slipped from one month highs against other major global currencies. The Fed’s plan to buy U.S. bonds in a bid to push interest rates down to spur spending and bank lending has had the dollar weakening against other currencies, making U.S. exports less expensive to holders of other currencies.

Asian markets are trading in the green with Nikkei leading the way on weaker Yen. Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rises to 5.4%, a little above estimates.

October car sales surge

October sales increased 38% to 182,992 vehicles from 132,615 a year earlier, according to data issued Wednesday by the SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers), an industry lobby group. October was the fifth-straight month of record car sales, outpacing the previous high of 169,082 sales in September.

In other news IT giant Infosys Technologies Ltd , India's second-largest outsourcing firm, said on Wednesday it was looking for acquisitions in Japan.

Nifty - News highs a teaser

Markets are finding it tough to spike from the last three trading sessions. We believe the cheap dollars will continue to flow into Dalal Street and it is just a matter of time we see new highs. A strong Realty and Infrastructure stock rally is round the corner. Place your bets here.

Expect Indian markets to trade positively today and volatility might die down

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Tata Motors stellar Q2 likely to push Indices higher

Dalal Street is likely to open in the green today and make an attempt to conquer new highs after Tata Motors announced excellent Q2.

Wall Street suffered a rare pullback on Tuesday as bank stocks dropped and worries about Europe's debt mess continue to resurface, sparking heavy selling of the closely-watched euro.

Asian markets are trading in the green and is likely to boost Dalal Street.

Tata Motors - Superb Q2

Tata Motors reported its highest-ever quarterly profit, boosted by a 43% jump in revenue at the Jaguar Land Rover unit in the UK, topping analysts forecasts. Shares zoomed nearly 3% to a record high of Rs 1,271 on the BSE. The company announced the results after market hours.

Tata Motors saw its total revenue increase 37% to Rs 28, 782 crore in the quarter. Tata Motors CFO C Ramakrishnan attributed the increase in earnings to strong volume growth across trucks, buses and cars, price increases and continued cost reduction efforts.

Hindaclo's Q2 - Inline with expectations

India’s largest aluminum producer Hindalco Industries posted a 26% increase in standalone net profit due to higher realisations from aluminum during the second quarter. The company’s net profit jumped to Rs434 crore in the July-September quarter as against Rs344 crore a year earlier.

Stock might witness a cool-off in today's trade.

Markets - All time highs ?

Markets are all set to conquer all time highs and might even shoot up further in the coming days. After the final hour push into the positive territory, Nifty looks strong for an upmove. Realty and Infrastructure are the two dark horse sectors on the street. Keep an eye

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

SBI Q2 below estimates, Bank stocks might witness pressure

Dalal Street is likely to open marginally in the negative territory on account of flattish global cues and below par Q2 numbers from the banking giant State Bank of India.

Wall Street closed flat on Monday as US Dollar rose sharply against a basket of currencies.

Officials from several countries have criticized the Fed's bond-buying program amid concerns that it will spark asset bubbles in emerging economies. Representatives in Germany, Brazil, South Africa and China have voiced objections to the plan and argued that it could lead to a surge in commodity prices.

Asian markets are trading in marginally the red on Tuesday morning.

State Bank of India disappoints

State Bank of India's Q2 net profit turned was at Rs 2,501.37 crore, up from Rs 2,490.04 crore a year earlier. The poor show was due to meeting higher provisioning norms. Both the treasury and corporate banking faired poorly.

The dismal show might hit the banking sector badly and one should wait and see how the street takes the numbers.

All time highs in question ?

With poor results from SBI, it would be a herculean task for the markets to cross the highs now. We believe only one stock should make the difference and it is none other than Reliance Industtries which is looking terrific on charts. Other stock that grabbed our attention yesterday was Unitech on the positive side.

We believe it is only a matter of time before the Markets conquer new highs. Stay invested

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Coal India listing today, PSU stocks might hog limelight

On expected lines US Ferderal Reserve promised new $600 billion bond-buying spree to rescue US economy from further slide.

This is the second time the Fed has engaged in quantitative easing, as it snapped up $1.7 trillion in mostly housing-related assets between December 2008 and March 2010.

While the US Economy is growing at snail's pace, high 9.6% rate of unemployment might push the economy into deflation.

Asian Markets spurt

Japan's Nikkei is trading up 180 points (2 pct) on weaker Yen while Australia jumped half percent. In a surprising move Canadian government late Wednesday rejected Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton’s $38.6-billion bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan.

All eyes on Coal India

Coal India is likely to list around Rs 280 levels (current grey market price) against the offer price of Rs 245. After initial selling pressure, the stock might take off but do not expect move beyond Rs 320 levels.

While QE2 had a positive impact on global markets, Nifty is looking bullish at these levels except for it has to close above this level one more time.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

QE2 policy minutes to decide global market direction

Dalal Street might open marginally in the green, discounting the 25 bps Repo and Reverse Repo rate hike from RBI.

Wall Street closed up on Tuesday on anticipation of the stimulus that has helped fuel a rally of nearly 12% in the Dow since the end of August as well as a swoon in the dollar. The dollar continued to slump on Tuesday.

Asian markets are trading flat to positive on Wednesday morning.

Soverign Debt - Staging a come back ?

The debt crisis that shook the world six months back seems to be back in the reckoning. On Tuesday, Irish credit costs surged to a record high and bond prices tumbled. Credit-default spreads, popularly called as CDS for Irish sovereign debt jumped 22 basis points to 5.20 percentage points, and hit 5.30 percentage points, a record high.

Lets get our heads turned towards Europe in the coming days.

RBI delivers, Will US Fed deliver ?

All eyes will be eagerly watching Ben Bernanke's policy decision after 02:15 PM EST. Fed is expected to announce a new program of bond buying, known as quantitative easing (W'Street is referring to this policy as QE2), because they are worried the economy could slip into deflation.

DStreet US Analyst Satish Bhogadi says "We expect the Fed to lend helping hand for one last time i.e using QE2. Stock markets might see another rally. Though interest rate futures suggest US might not raise rates till 2012, we believe there is a surprise in store in the first half of 2011."

Expect a positive session today

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

All roads lead to Reserve Bank policy meeting

Wall Street closed flat despite of higher ISM data, on concerns that Fed might not adopt aggressive quantitative easing. Asian stocks are mixed, waiting for a response from US Federal Reserve, expected on Wednesday 03rd November.

RBI policy meeting

India's central bank RBI will unveil credit policy on back of higher inflation, gush of liquidity. We expect RBI to let go with a minor hike of 25 basis points this time. But RBI might talk tough on inflows which will daunt the markets.

DStreet experts are extremely bullish, the way RBI is handling the situation and all roads are leading to a golden era for Indian equities. We have a long and strong target of 35000 for Sensex by 2014 based on earnings growth and higher valuation India might command. But we are afraid we might hit the levels much earlier.

Stay invested but before pumping new funds we advice investors to wait till Diwali which might give us crystal clear picture of the impact of Fed QE2 (Quantitative Easing).

Friday, October 29, 2010

Markets clock record turnover of Rs 2.82 lakh crore on the expiry day

Dalal Street underperformed the global equity markets this week, thanks to F&O expiry on thursday, only to see Asian peers sliding on Friday. Wall Street closed flat after Dow lost more than 100 points at one point of time.

Nikkei is trading down on Friday morning due to continued strength in the yen while Australia is trading marginally down.

Q2 Numbers - No major impact

While Q2 numbers were inline with market expectations, stocks started feeling the heat after announcement of numbers. We believe markets have discounted the current Q2 numbers way before. Except for fund inflows we do not see any other major reason for the markets to go up. Refunds will hit the market anytime and there is an absolute reason to be bullish.

Textile Stocks

Despite of strong raw material costs in the form of rising cotton price, textile stocks are buzzing on the street as retail business is picking up and partly due to monetizing their land banks.

We expect this sector to extend the current rally and might see a multi-year rally with intermediate corrections

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Dalal Street likely to witness ranged trade

Indian equity markets are expected to trade in a tight range on the F&O expiry day after moving voilently in the past three trading sessions.

U.S. stocks on Wednesday pared their losses in late trading Wednesday as investors recalibrated their expectations for a major bout of easing by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy. Expectations are now increasing for the Fed to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases of a few hundred billion dollars over several months, an approach in contrast to the central bank's purchases of nearly $2 trillion of bonds during the financial crisis.

Asia mixed on thursday

While Australian stocks shot up one percent as bank stocks spiked up, Japan's Nikkei is down marginally.

F&O Expiry today

It is funny but surprising that the last three days market moves are exactly resembling last month's trading pattern before expiry. We expect extremely ranged trade and neither expect volatility nor big moves.

While 10 pct correction in the markets buzz is again doing rounds, we do not see there is a valid point for correction at this given time. Fresh Inflows are on the cards and Coal India refunds will certainly boost the markets. Orchestrated market moves during F&O do not given momentum or trend indicators. Infact one should not even consider the market mood or trend in the F&O week for trying to analyse short, medium term trends.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Indian Stocks to see a positive opening

Stocks on Dalal Street might see a gap up open today but thursday's F&O expiry might weigh on the street. It will be an interesting fight between the inflows to the street from Coal India IPO and F&O market makers who might want to inflict "Max Pain" to traders.

Wall Street closed the day pretty flat with no major cues. Japan's Nikkei and Australian markets are trading in the green on Wednesday morning.

Q2 Inline with expectations

Second Quarter numbers declared by majority of the companies are inline with expectations and we find many stocks taking a hit (in terms of stock price) as markets have discounted current performance.

Except for couple of companies like TCS, IB Financials, Guj Amb Exports rest of the crowd appeared to have met the expectations with the exception of Wipro.

Nifty to trade in a band

While hitting new highs might be a no brainer before Diwali, it is tough to expect Nifty to make big moves in the next two days. F&O expiry slated for thursday is likely to weigh on the markets. While "Max Pain" is showing a Nifty close around 6000 levels again tomorrow, one need to see if the concept works this month also.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Asia trading marginally in the red, Dalal Street to see subdued opening

Wall Street extended three weeks of gains Monday on weaker US dollar and expectations of another round of stimulus helped stocks move higher. While the above two factors are helping US stocks right now,longer-term effects of the Fed’s expected resumption of bond purchasing need to be seen.

Asian markets are trading weak on Tuesday on flattish global cues. We expect a range bound trading sessions across the globe today, on absence of major news flow.

Dalal Street - Still in a band ?

Despite of all the bullish momentum, for now we expect the street to trade in a band with upside capped at 6170. We believe the level will be washed off after FII refund money from Coal India flows into Dalal Street.

Power Ancillaries, Sugar as sectors look better than the rest while stock specific action based on Q2 numbers is the current theme. Hindustan Unilever declared very good Q2 and same did TCS among the large cap stocks.

Real-time Portfolios, started on August 16 are delivering pretty good results and we expect much more to come in the immd future

Monday, October 25, 2010

Bajaj Auto to join Sensex while ACC moves out

Dalal Street opens to flattish global cues though Singapore Nifty is pointing to a mini gap upmove in the early trades. Wall Street closed flat on Friday while Asian stocks are trading in a boring fashion Monday morning.

Australian shares shot up after Singapore SGX confirmed it is buying Australia ASX for about 8.4 billion Australian dollars ($8.3 billion). Watch out for Financial Technologies on Dalal Street which owns multiple exchanges.

Bajaj Auto Ltd will again be among India's top 30 companies that form the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, after getting excluded from the benchmark on March 14, 2008.

Also GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Zee Entertainment,Rural Electrification and Yes Bank Ltd. were included in the BSE-100 Index.

Refunds from Coal India IPO to push markets higher

FII refunds from Coal India IPO are expected later in this week and part of the money might find its way to Dalal Street. We believe new highs before Diwali cannot be ruled out and investors should stay invested. ET reports that the finance ministry could move a bill in the winter session that will make Nabard regulator of all non-profit microfinance institutions. If this turns true SKS Micro might move down hill

Friday, October 22, 2010

Stocks set to open higher,

Dalal Street is all set to open higher on Friday thanks to positive Asian markets and renewed buying momentum after yesterday's big rally. Wall Street closed in the green while Asia opened strong today. Nikkei is up 0.4 pct while Kospi is trading 0.9 pct

TCS - Strong numbers

TCS posted a 32% increase in net profit to Rs 2169 crore in the second quarter ended September 2010, boosted by increased outsourcing orders from overseas clients.

TCS was the first IT company to clock $2bn revenue. Current workforce utilization is 83.8 per cent, the highest ever recorded by the company
All in all the stock will get a rousing reception today.

ACC - Q2 disappoints

ACC reported a 77% drop in its quarterly standalone net profit at Rs 100.04 crore. Total income dipped 15.8% to Rs 1,688 crore.

Q2 numbers today

Biocon, Indian Bank, NIIT, SKS Micro, Sobha Developers, Thomas Cook, Vijaya Bank and Wipro reports today.

Nifty looks strong

Thumping response to Coal India and reports that part of the money refunded from Coal India IPO might find its way back to the secondary market is definitely a reason to cheer for Bulls. Q2 numbers were inline with expectations and companies like TCS have outperformed too.

We would stick to our Technical level of 6170-6180 band, a break above which Nifty will see a rocket like move.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Dalal Street might rebound today, TCS reports Q2

Indian markets are likely to marginally gap up today after a series of bloody afternoons from the past five trading sessions with the exception of Monday. Wall Street closed on a firm footing on Wednesday and recouped most of the Tuesday's losses.

Asia trading flat

Asian markets failed to take the advantage of overseas cues and are trading mixed on Thursday. Nikkei is down 54 points while Australian markets are trading marginally up.

Dalal Street - To witness volatility

Coal India IPO Thursday is the last day of bidding for retail and other noninstitutional investors including HNIs, while yesterday was the last day of bidding for institutional investors, that is foreign funds, local insurance companies and mutual funds. Among the global financial majors, Janus Capital , Blackstone, Temasek, Fidelity, T Rowe Price and Putnam have put in bids of $200 million each, quotes Times of India .Even the retail portion was almost fully subscribed with a day to go.

Nifty has hit our magic 5970 level in the final hour yesterday only to bounce back. We expect Nifty to trade above 6000 levels and it is extremely confusing to pick up direction in Nifty. Again we advice to play the market with technicals

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Bears go hysteric, Asia tanks

Wall Street's witnessed the worst day in two months on Tuesday with bears all over the place on different local and global factors. US Dollar surges to two-week highs while China unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007 ahead of data that may show inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost two years. Stocks and commodities fell.

Asian stocks sink

Wednesday morning witnessed carnage in Asian markets, thanks to global cues. Chinese rake hike might take toll on India metal stocks too.

Dalal Street - Nifty likely to test supports

Dalal Street which is trading with a negative bias from the past 5 trading sessions is likely to gap down with Nifty attempting another breach of support level at 5970. Below 5970 one might witness a big slide in the benchmark indices.

For now stay invested though correction cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Bulls out in force, Asia in green

Dalal Street will see a gap up opening today on positive global cues and Nifty after taking support at expected levels might see a bullish run in the next few days. Wall Street closed with decent gains while IPod/Ipad manufacterer Apple declared good numbers but pressure on margins which sent the futures down.

Asian markets in green

Taking a cue from the US markets Japanese bank shares pushed Nikkei to higher levels while Hangseng too is trading with good gains.

Dalal Street might start the upward journey

After a quick slide in the last three days with a big recovery yesterday, Dalal Street is all set to resume its upward journey. But we do not expect a run away rally for today. Bank stocks might get a cue from Asian peers.

Technically Nifty should close above 6200 for a big move. Reports of IOC planning to raise about Rs 19,000 crore might not gel well with the market but for now things look positive

Monday, October 18, 2010

Asia trading mixed, Dalal Street to open flat

Coal India IPO opens, pre-market session at BSE & NSE from today

Dalal Street opens to a mixed bag on Monday morning after volatile trading last week with global markets trading flat. Wall Street closed mixed with technology stocks moving up and Dow Jones closing in the red.

Asian Markets

Japanese Nikkei is trading flat with a marginal gain of 30 points while Australia is trading in the red.

Coal India IPO opens today

Coal India, the biggest IPO so far in the history of corporate India, will open on Monday to mop up Rs 15,000 crore to beat the Rs 11,700-crore offering from Anil Ambani's Reliance Power in January 2008.

The country is short of approximately 60 million tonnes of coal as rise in demand outpaces growth in domestic production. While production by CIL — which accounts for nearly 80-90 % of supplies — is rising at 7%, demand is increasing by about 10%.

We expect secondary markets to stay lacklustre due to the IPO as investors might withdraw from Dalal Street to apply for this IPO.

Stock specific action

Stock specific action is seen on the street today. Markets got the stick in the last two trading sessions as investors pulled out for the IPO. We expect markets to remain subdued but with volatility.

Friday, October 15, 2010

All eyes on Infosys Q2 results today, stock looking expensive

Infosys shares hit a all-time high yesterday on expectations of robust second quarter earnings, to be announced pre-market today. Analyst expectations are pegged at around 9 pct jump in sales growth and EBIDTA growth of 33 pct QoQ.

Wall Street closed flat after a slide during the noon session. After hours tech giant Google's shares soared 10 pct on excellent quarterly results. Banks got the stick though.

Asia trades in the red

Bank stocks lead Japan lower Friday morning while other Asian markets too are trading in the red.

Infosys might disappoint

While the street is looking forward to guidance, we believe FY12 growth is already priced in the stock. Currency jitters might make the outlook less exciting and attention will be on growing attrition. Yesterday's numbers from Axis Bank were stunning but the stock has run up a lot ahead of the numbers.

Results Today

Following companies will declare Q2 numbers today.

DCB, Karnataka Bank, Manappuram, Venus Remedies, Infosys Technologies

Expect another rocky session today

All indicators are pointing to a gap down open, marginally though. We expect a volatile session and might end the day flat. Infosys might decide the short term direction but we re-iterate that gone are those days when Indian markets used to completely rely on one company (be it Infy or Reliance) before judging the economic growth. Markets are getting matured and for good.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Dalal Street ready to play 'touch and go' with new highs

Wall Street closed Wednesday in green after positive numbers from biggies JP Morgan and Intel boosted investor spirits. But actual action started after-hours after WSJ reported that AOL might be planning to take over Yahoo Inc.

AOL is in talks with firms including Silver Lake Partners and Blackstone Group LP, about a possibile offer, the report said citing unnamed sources.

Asia spikes up

The buyout rumour along with strength in gold and oil prices, Nikkei shot up 1.82 pct while rest of the Asian markets are trading in the green.

New highs this week ?

It is a tough one to answer with two more trading sessions to go. The new highs are at a stone throw distance and it is highly likely we might see new highs before Coal India IPO itself. But for today chances are more of a flattish to ranged trade after a gap up open. We see broad based participation from now on.Stay invested though the road gets little bumpy when we traverse past the old highs

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Coal India's IPO band set at Rs 225-245, Issue opens on 18th October

US Stocks recovered from early losses after Federal Reserve commented that quantitative easing may be needed for a longer period than anticipated.

Asia starts the day stronger

Nikkei climbed Wednesday morning as a surprise jump in the Japan's August core machinery orders provided a lift to technology and auto shares. Else where in the region Korea's Kospi and Austrailian markets are trading decently up.

Coal India IPO

Stage has been set for the blockbuster IPO of the year. Price band for Coal India IPO was set at Rs 225-245 price band which will help it raise as much as Rs 15,200 crore, surpassing the Rs 11,600-crore record set by Reliance Power in 2008. Coal India staff and retail investors will get a 5% discount to the final price.

At the top end of the band, Coal India would be trading at 12 times the forward-year earnings forecast. Coal India would be the world’s biggest listed coal producer.

Pricing of the IPO will lure both domestic, retail and foreign investors to the Issue. But the impact might be felt on the secondary market.

IIP data overhang, Coal India IPO and Infy to dictate terms

While IIP data overhang still exists, Infosys numbers on Friday might dictate short term movement in the market. No doubt Coal India IPO will take the sheen out of secondary market as investors might sell their holdings to subscribe for the IPO. We see a subdued movement for the next 1-2 weeks with a negative bias. For today market is expected to trade in the green, marginally though.

Stick to quality midcap and smallcap stocks.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

All eyes on Industrial Production data

Dalal Street will see another subdued opening on Tuesday morning with flattish global cues hitting the shores of Mumbai. Wall Street closed the day flat with no economic news flow, while Asian markets are trading in the red marginally.

Good news to emerging markets

Japan's public pension fund plans to include emerging-market stocks next summer, in a bid to increase returns, according to a report published Tuesday. That is music to the ears of emerging markets which are already attracting massive fund flows.

IIP Data - Cynosure of traders and investors

Industrial output data for the month of August will be released Tuesday, and the headline number is expected to slow to a single-digit growth rate, hurt by an expected slowdown in capital-goods output that had reached unsustainably high levels in the month prior. After showing a robust growth of 13.8 percent in July, we expect industrial production for August to come around 10 percent.

Nifty might not be able to crack 6200 levels and midcaps will extend the run along with smallcap stocks

Monday, October 11, 2010

Positive start to the week

After two trading sessions full of volatility and confusion, Investors are likely to return to Dalal Street which is all set to make a positive start on account of global cues.

Wall Street closed in the green on Friday with Dow Jones crossing the much awaited 11,000 levels.

RBI warns of intevention

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped a record $21.3 billion into Indian equities so far this year, helping push the rupee to a 25-month high last week.

“If the inflows are lumpy and volatile or if they disrupt the macroeconomic situation, we will do so,” RBI governor said of intervention.

We expect RBI intervention at a later stage and for now do not see any issue with the inflows.

Fortis Healthcare - Hongkong acquisition

Fortis Global Healthcare Holdings Pte., controlled by billionaires Malvinder Mohan Singh and Shivinder Mohan Singh, agreed to buy units of Hong Kong-based Quality HealthCare Asia Ltd. for HK$1.5 billion ($193 million).

The purchase will give Fortis Global a network of more than 60 medical centers, at least 500 affiliated clinics and more than 40 dental and physiotherapy centers, the closely held company said in an e-mailed statement today.

Market today

We expect the market to show positive momentum but do not expect miracles. Also focus on midcap and smallcap stocks instead of index stocks. Many of our stocks are ripe for an upmove especially our Paid Technical Check picks.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Calm after the storm

Market open 15 min delay from 18 October

Indian equities are most likely to see a soft opening on Friday morning, after getting smashed in the final hour of trade yesterday. Wall Street closed flat on Thursday, nervous ahead of September jobs report on Friday. World's largest Aluminium manufacturere Alcoa (AA) beats expectations though Q3 net slipped 21 pct. Watch for hindalco in today's trade.

Japan approves stimulus worth 5.05 trillion yen

Japan's cabinet Friday approved compilation of an extra budget of 5.05 trillion yen ($61.3 billion) to stimulate the economy, larger than the 4.8 trillion yen initially planned. The government says the measures will add 0.6 percentage point to gross domestic product growth.

Nikkei is currently trading down 34 points or 0.35 percent.

Dalal Street - Jittery moves ahead?

Markets sold off in the final hour of trade yesterday. We believe the selling is a result of overheating in the market and there are no indications of any slowdown in the foreign inflows. But we expect the inflows to slow in the coming weeks resulting in choppy markets. Mutual funds might pull the plug after January 2011. We might be in for a feast in the next 6 months but sharp sell-offs are part of the game. Traders are advised to discount the volatility.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Flattish cues flirt with Dalal Street

A quiet day awaits Indian Equities when they open for trade on Thursday morning, thanks to flattish global cues. Wall Street closed mixed, near to the touchline despite of weak jobless data. We expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to move sideways and stay range bound for most of the day. Most of the action will be stock specific and story based.

Asia trading flat

Taking a leaf out of Wall Street's close on Wednesday, Asian stocks started the day in a flattish manner. Japan and Australia is trading near the previous days close. We do not expect major movements for the rest of the day in the global equity markets unless there is some substantial news flow.

Career Point - Where is the stock pointing to ?

New listing kept investors busy on Wednesday with Career Point and EROS Enetertainment making their debut on Dalal Street.Career point which raised 115 crore selling 35.5 lakh shares at Rs 310 has more than doubled in value on the first day to finish at Rs 632 and we think that it is a good idea to take profits at Rs 650 levels.

Noted buyers in the counter yesterday include HDFC and Reliance Mutual funds. We advise invetors to book profits in today's upmove for the short term.

Will Nifty break 6200 ?

That might be a tough one atleast for the first half of the trade today. But Nifty to continue the steam should confidently break the 6200 level which is becoming a tough nut to crack.

Realty and Metal space looks hot from a sectoral stand point while Healthcare and Banking are currently flat for the time being. The midcap space is likley to be in demand today and stocks like JM Financials, NOCIl Ltd, SREI Infra, Shipping Corp and Binani Cement might look to extend their gains from yesterday.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Bulls climb 'Wall' Street, looking towards Dalal Street

Wall Street soared to a five month high on Tuesday after Japan's surprise move to lower interest rates and inject cash into the economy raised hopes for similar move by US authorities.

Other key data indicator - The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its service-sector index increased last month to 53.2 from 51.5 in August.

Japanese Stocks jump

Bank stocks lead the bull charge in Japan after the regulator surprised with a rate cut. Australia too is trading comfortably higher, up nearly 1.5 pct

Dalal Street to gap up

With positive global cues, Dalal Street will gap up but sustaining at higher levels is still a question. After ADAG we mgiht see Jaiprakash or Tata group stocks spike up, if not today in the next couple of trading sessions.

Other global markets performing well might not augur for Indian markets as flows might hold on. It is very important to monitor global markets and commodities. Copper is at 26 month high while Gold is trading at life time high. Crude Oil is looking up.This is one of those strange situation where all asset classes are attracting interest. We know where this will lead to...

Careerpoint and Eros will be listing on the street today

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Red blanket covers Asian markets

Indian stocks are likely to gap down marginally on Tuesday morning when they open for trade on account of negative global cues.

WallStreet closed lower on Monday as traders' confidence remained shaky ahead of key employment data and corporate earnings later this week and as two key stocks took a hard beating.

Asia in red

Japanese markets are trading down nearly half percent due to uncertainty ahead of a Bank of Japan decision on interest rates. Australia too is trading down more than one percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia was slated to announce its policy decision later in the day, with economists split over whether it will hike its policy interest rate.

Dalal Street - Sluggish morning session

Sluggish trade with bearish bias is expected atleast in the first couple of hours of trade. Not a bad idea to pick up stocks for short term trading. As expected broking, Realty, Cap Goods and metal counters are driving while surprisingly few bank counters moved up. DCB witnessed fund buying from Blackstone Asia (picked 11 lakh shares at Rs 58.88)

Watch out for stocks like JMC Projects, Sadhbav Engineering today and tomorrow. While pullback is not ruled out from lower levels, midcap and smallcap stocks might shine today

Monday, October 4, 2010

Rajini, Commonwealth Games steal the show

While Robot mania swept South India, Commonwealth Games kicked off in style on Sunday evening much to the relief of Indian government. Global equities are trading marginally in the positive with wall street closing up on Friday. Dow closed up 45 points while Nasdaq gained 2 points.

Asia mixed on Monday morning

Nikkei slipped into red after financial services stocks suffered steep declines. Korean Kospi index is up 0.3 pct

SUN TV - Rakes in a big moolah

Sun Pictures, the subsidary of Sun TV has tasted tremendous success over the weekend after the most costliest Indian film Robo was declared an allround hit. Reports say SUN TV is likely to recover the cost of the film in the first week itself. We believe Sun TV stock is in for a ride and we expected the same in our recent analysis.

Dalal Street - The show continues

Bull show on Dalal Street is likely to extend this week too. While there will be volatile sessions and intermediate cool-offs, we at DStreet believe the flows will only continue resulting in some more upside. Five IPOs will be listing this week end.

Tata Steel on Sunday increased prices of its products by up to Rs 1,500 per tonne, mainly on account of rising demand.

Year to date, the BSE Capital Goods Index is up 70%, the BSE Bankex is up 42%, the BSE FMCG Index is up nearly 33%, and the BSE Auto Index is up over 31%, while the benchmark Sensex has risen only 17% in the same period.

Sectorally Realty is the best bet followed by Capital goods, Metals and Fertilizer stocks

Friday, October 1, 2010

Stocks : A Positive Start to October

Dalal Street is all set to open in the green, a day after Ayodhya verdict and F&O expiry.

US Economy expanding

The United States economy grew only slightly in the second quarter, the Department of Commerce said yesterday, confirming that the pace of the economic recovery had slowed.

Gross domestic product (G.D.P) rose at an annual rate of 1.7 per cent in the quarter, marking a sharp decline from the first quarter, when growth hit 3.7 per cent.

Wall Street failed to capitalize of better than expected jobless numbers and GDP, only to close in the red.

Asian Markets

China's official purchasing mangers' index (PMI) jumped to 53.8 in September from 51.7 the previous month, giving a boost to Asian markets. Nikkei is currently trading up half percent

Dalal Street - Positive Start

Ayodhya verdict as expected had no impact thanks to a booming economy. We expect Dalal Street to greet the peaceful situation with a positive start and most likely a positive end. Investors are advised to look for sector rotation. BHEL is threatening for a breakout among largecaps.

If a financial newspaper's starts are believed to be correct, 35 pct of the FII's are yet to comply with SEBI's new regulation which comes into force today. There were reports that few FII's might leave the country due to the regulation which we believe is impossible, given the "Hot Indian" brand among global investment community.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

F&O Expiry Hangover to end today

&O expiry for the month of September, which was dictating terms from the last 3-4 trading sessions will finally come to an end today. Allahabad High court will announce the Ayodhya verdict at 03:30 PM.

Global markets : US & Asia flat

US markets closed flat while Asia is currently is trading the same. European woes have started increasing but none of the markets reacted voilently. Buzz about European crisis might not tamper market euphoria but a new crisis can.


Mahindra Satyam : On the right track

Mahindra Satyam says it saw revenues at a higher-than-expected Rs 8,800 crore and a net loss of Rs 8,176 crore. The management says the company has not fully recovered yet and a full recovery will take up to two more years.

We believe the stock is only a long term hold and given the merger proposal in the next 6 to 8 months, we expect a raw deal for Mahindra Satyam shareholders in case the merger happens.

FIIs with single client will not be allowed to trade in India from October 01 says regulator SEBI. Lot of IPOs sucked in money from the secondary market and the big one is yet to come. Coal India is coming out with a huge IPO, halfway through this month and is expected to absorb more liquidity.

We expect a flat trading day today with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to close around 6,000 levels

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

All eyes on Mahindra Satyam's audited numbers today

Dalal Street

Mahindra Satyam, the cynosure of traders is all set to disclose revenue and profit figures for 2008-09 and 2009-10 later in the day today. Last week Mahindra Satyam Ltd announced that it would de-list from the New York Stock Exchange as it would not be able to meet the October 15 deadline for preparing financial statements under US accounting standards. A financial newspaper reported that Mahindra Satyam might settle with Raju's family over the latter's claim for Rs 1250 crore investment in Satyam.

Indian markets might take a few more days of breather before the upmove. Atleast from a short term we do not see major issue with the market. Retail participation is reportedly on an uptrend.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Markets likely to witness subdued opening

Airline stocks to see interest on Southwest's Airtran acquisition

Indian equity markets are likely to open flat Tuesday morning after weak global markets and inability to sustain at higher levels in Monday's trade.

US Markets closed in the red despite of M&A deals. Low-cost carrier Southwest bought AirTran for $1.4b, a premium of 60 pct. Indian airline stocks are likely to see some interest backed by this news.

Asian markets in red

Nikkei is trading nearly 68 points down while Australia is trading flat. The Bank of Japan will discuss further easing of its monetary policy at its upcoming board meeting, according to a report published Tuesday.

Dalal Street - Flows continue

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped nearly $18 billion (Rs 81,880 crore) in Indian stocks so far this year, their highest investment in dollar terms in a calendar year.

In September alone FIIs have net-bought shares worth nearly $5 billion (Rs 22,700 crore). While India continues to be a hot destination for FIIs, we expect minor hiccups in the form of swift corrections to hit the market time and again.

Dalal Street might take on new highs next month. With US economy struggling, Euro crisis end not in sight and market factoring part of these concerns, the situation is favouring the bulls in the medium term. Coal India IPO is a small trigger for bears but given the kind of inflows the issue might not have an impact on D-Street.

F&O expiry (30th September) will see markets trading in a extremely volatile fashion.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Dalal Street to see Dhamaka opening

Bull breeze is blowing in Mumbai on Monday morning with investors excited enough to see D-Street closing in on the new highs. US Markets shot up Friday on better economic indicators.

Asia jumps on US cues

Nikkei is trading up one percent, despite of Japanese trade surplus coming below expectations while Australia jumped 1.25 pct.

Big Bull - Cautious on the market

Speaking to a private business channel Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said "Investors need to be cautious as the gain in equities has been “very rapid in the last 15 to 20 days,". He also acknowledged that "the Indian economy and the Indian growth story is on a continuous uphill climb.” in the longer term.

High put-call ratio

NSE's Open Interest Volume Put Call Ratio climbed to 1.93 on Sept. 22, the highest since March 26, 2009. This shows traders are trying to hedge their positions by buying put options. While F&O expiry slated for coming Thursday will be a road block for the Indices to crack new highs soon. Volatility will only increase in the next few trading sessions.

Sector is a must and sitting in Banking and Auto will ensure investors miss the next bus. Realty as expected will be one of the sectors driving the market and Reliance is another big one which has the potential to keep the momentum running.

Given the kind of inflows India Inc is witnessing it is really tough to think of correction at this point of time. But when it comes it will be wild enough to drive investors crazy

Friday, September 24, 2010

Dalal Street likely to open in the red, only to bounce back

Dalal Street : Watch for a bounce

Stocks on dalal street will open negatively to the global cues but might see a sharp bounce today. Bank stocks are likely to be under pressure today also. We advise subscribers to slowly get out of bank and auto sectors for the next six months except one or two stocks which still look under valued. We had a coverage today on a smallcap steel stock that is ready to deliver approx 70 pct gains in the next six to eight months.

Focus on Infrastructure stocks, second rung IT & metal stocks and Realty might see a surprise upmove in the coming days

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Another volatile day on cards, Asia trending lower

Indian markets will open to mildly negative cues from the global markets with US deflation worries causing nervourness among investeor community. Wall Street ended marginally in the red with Dow losing 22 points and Nasdaq down by 15 points.

Nikkei is trading down by 0.3 pct while Australia is down by 0.2 pct. Australian dollar hits new 26-month high against the US dollar on thursday while New Zealand second-quarter GDP went up by 0.2 pct, below economists expectation.

Dalal Street : Waiting for more inflows or cues ?

After a mamouth rally Dalal Street is waiting for the next step. While F&O expiry slated for next week might add more volatility to the indices, Markets still look good for another upswing with Nifty support level pegged at 5800.

Infrastructure stocks are showing some life in yesterday's trade. Watch out for offbeat sectors like Ceramics to buzz on the street. While power sector started participating, there are many sectors that missed the rally. While Banking, Auto sectors are likely to be the laggards in the next 6 months to one year time frame, we expect Realty, Infra to pick up pace in the coming months

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Indian market to extend the rally, caution warranted

Dalal Street is likely to open in the positive zone on Wednesday morning with sectoral rotation pushing the markets up. IT pack lead the index gainers while Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. extended the dream run, gaining 14 pct in the last one month.

Tata Power Company Ltd. joined the winners league with an upmove of nearly 3 pct. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. is another interesting stock in this space. Infra stocks are showing signs of life with IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd. inching up thanks to the new IPO's from the same sector.

Asia trading flat, Bernanke keeps rates steady

The US Federal Reserve for the first time raised direct concern that the nation's economy may be headed into a deflation trap and expressed new readiness to take more action to avert a serious turn for the worse.

Wall Street closed flat pushing the Asian markets to trade in a narrow band.

Avoid midcaps and smallcap stocks

Midcap and Smallcap stocks are going through a silent correction as index stocks extend the rally. We advice investors to avoid the second run stocks and wait for a decent correction before accumulating quality stocks.

BHEL is likely to grab index fund interest as the stock has underperformed in the last one month. Keep an eye

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Wall Street in top gear, S&P breaks out

8 IPO's hitting the market

Dalal Street is unperturbed by the new IPO's. Ideally when big ticket IPO's arrive on the street, liquidity issues will hit the secondary markets. But given the current Euphoric situation we do not see this as a worthy discussion point. The companies, which are hitting the primary market this week include, Orient Green Power (Rs 900 crore), VA Tech Wabag (Rs 500 crore), Electrosteel (Rs 285 crore), Tecpro Systems (Rs 268 crore), Ashoka Buildcon (Rs 225 crore) and Gallant Ispat (Rs 40.50 crore),Ramky Infrastructure (Rs 530 crore) and Cantabil Retail (Rs 105 crore).

All eyes are on Nifty breaking 6,000 levels today and with out much fan fare Nifty is likely to gap up above 6000 but there might be a small shakeout once the levels are taken out. Trade with caution till the 6000 levels are digested

Following stocks might see intraday movement (to the upside) today.
Zicom Electronic Security Systems Ltd.

Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd.

Triveni Engineering & Inds. Ltd.

Varun Industries Ltd

PTC India Ltd

Monday, September 20, 2010

FII flows to extend the momentum,watch out for realty midcaps

Dalal Street opens to a positive optimism on Monday with FII inflows ready to smack this market to higher levels. US Markets are exactly at the resistance level and for now, is unable to crack the resistance despite of good news.

Asia trading weak

After a great trading week,Australia opened weak on Monday morning with Japan's Nikkei closing on account of a holiday. We expect a dull day for global markets today.

Mining Policy :

Ministerial panel apporved a mining law that seeks to cut the time taken to allocate mines and simplify a process that currently requires companies to pass through a maze of approvals from federal and state governments. The new law also proposes sharing profits between miners and local residents in an effort to reduce opposition to projects.

Industry is against the profit sharing while rest of the aspects seem to be 'OK' with them.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. has reportedly signed a deal to buy aircraft parts-making machinery from Boeing Co.'s plant in Melbourne, Australia. Stock is likely to be in action in today's trade.

WSJ reports that Reliance MediaWorks Ltd. is planning to open another 60 screens in India and 20 in the U.S. this fiscal year through March 2011, quoting a senior executive.

VIX on the rise

Volatility Index (VIX) of Nifty has been rising along with Nifty. It closed at a 20-day high of 19.4. This signals caution, as fear has crept into the market.

But underlying sentiment is quite bullish and we do see any suddent surprises to the downside now. While experts are of the opinion that a 3-6 month rally is in the offing and retail investors are likely to jump in soon.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Dalal Street to see a subdued opening, Bank stocks might witness selling pressure

Banks not inclined to raise rates

Reports indicate that banks are unwilling to pass on the rate hike to the customer. RBI yesterday raised repo rates by 25 basis points. Stocks from the sector might see some pressure on this news.

It would be interesting to see what sector might take charge in case of a renewed upmove today. But Banks and Autos will lead the correction in case yesterday's slide extends.

Today's trade is very important from a short term direction perspective. For investors this market is too confusing to invest in. But there are many stocks that have not participated in the rally with better fundamentals. We see these stocks performing well in the next one month irrespective of a correction

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Can Mr.Subbarao take the bull by the horns?

Global markets extended the recent rally with minor gains on Wednesday as Wall Street closed half percent. With no major news flow, equity markets across the globe are subdued with a positive bias. Japanese markets are exceptional due to Yen driven news. Indian markets are a different story alltogether.

Asia up on thursday

Asian markets are trading up thursday morning as Yen extends wednesday's slide on fears of further intervention by BOJ. Nikkei is up 0.7 pct while Australia is down 0.3 pct

RBI Policy meet

In what can be termed as the most significant event in the last 2 months, given the current euphoric situation RBI will be announcing the changes to the monetary policy (if any) in a mid-quarter review. Pranab's recent comments indicate that a rate hike is surely in the offing.

In case RBI gives the hike a miss, we are in for a bigger bubble. Bulls will go on a rampage if RBI fails to arrest the inflation. A 25 basis points hike would take its repo rate(the rate at which it lends to banks) to 6 per cent and the reverse repo rate(at which it borrows from banks) to 4.75 per cent.

Finally the D-day has arrived and it is ideal to stay mum for today instead of taking any positions with out proper interpretation. Risky traders can play the volatility. The positive buzz is getting too strong these days. We are still not clear on the direction of the market but continue to believe our old version of correction though the chances have slimmed down a lot.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Bulls hell-bent to step back, side counters to gain

Wall Street investors cheered Basel norms, resulting in a positive close for Dow Jones and Nasdaq on Monday. Basel-III, as it is popularly called will require banks to hold more capital than they did before the crisis. Banks will have time till 2019 to comply to these norms.

Bank stocks on Dalal Street had a feast yesterday partly due to Basel-III though India's banks see no significant impact at this point of time.

Asia trading mixed

After big gains yesterday, Asian markets are trading in red with Japan's Nikkei losing half percent. Meanwhile Australian shares moved up half percent.

More positive talk on the street

This is how things change overnight as far as equity markets are concerned. Analysts who are extremely bearish till yesterday started turning bullish. While Analysts at DStreet stick to the same analysis, momentum seems to be on the bullish side for the time being.

Dalal Street's valuations are getting expensive at least from FY 11 earnings perspective. The current up move will be more dangerous without meaningful correction. Having said this we are still invested 30-35 pct in our real-time portfolios.

Expect a choppy session today after a positive open. We expect the side counters to gain after missing out on yesterday's rally

Stocks look good for an intraday upmove in the descending order of priority

Tarapur Transformers
Arvind Ltd.
Balaji Telefilms Ltd.
Arvind Ltd.
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd

Monday, September 13, 2010

Positive cues every where, D-Street to gap up

Strong IIP data and higher inflation makes a strong case for rate hike

Come 16th September, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chairman Subbarao will be under severe pressure to announce a rate hike. While the feelers from the Finance ministry clearly indicates that hike is imminent, the extent of the hike is unknown.

Market sources are undecided while we expect a 25 basis rate hike and anything above that will be a big negative. We do not see a case for more than 25 basis point rate cut though.

Global positives


US Markets closed the last 2 trading sessions in green on better than expected economic data. But overall the situation is very sketchy as far as global markets are concerned. On the other hand china's economy is showing flamboyance but inflation concerns still remain.

Asian markets are trading strong on Monday morning with Japan's Nikkei inching up 1 pct and South Korea's Kospi, up half percent.

Strong IIP data

India’s industrial output surged 13.76% in July from a year ago, a good 6 percentage points above the median analyst forecast and far higher than the June figure, downwardly revised to 5.76%. Capital goods stocks might be in the limelight today.

Economists expect IIP to come down to single digits in the next two to three months, also because of a “strong base effect”.

Inflation

Inflation data is due on September 14 might set another case for RBI. Inflation numbers above 10 pct might propel the central bank to go for a rate hike. Food inflation rose to 11.47 per cent during the last week of August.

According to Mr.Montek Singh, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission the inflation numbers will come down drastically to the range of 5-6 percent. We believe this is tough to achieve given the macro economic conditions.

Markets ahead


We expect markets to trade positively today but as we approach the 16th deadline we remain extremely cautious as market might not take the news to heart. If correction gives this week a miss then we are in for a feast for the rest of the month

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Nifty to have positive open

All eyes on RBI Policy

While the current momentum is driven by rush of funds from across the globe, there is an increasing voice on valuation theory.Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India dipped for the second consecutive month, by 49 per cent to $ 1.78 billion in July and FII Inflows in August too indicate a slow down.

Timing the correction is the toughest part and lets examine the probable events that might well trigger the correction. We expect RBI's policy meet on 16th September as the biggest trigger for correction in the extreme short term. The other possible event we can think of is European crisis which is showing legs in the last one week.

For today we expect markets to trade in a range with a positive bias with small stocks extending their run

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Dalal Street to see a subdued start

We might not see any major reaction to global events today, just like the street responded over the last two months. But one should clearly note the current rally is purely
driven by cheap dollars. The depth of European crisis is not known while US economic data is mixed and clearly indicates a slide. Next week's RBI policy (16th Sept) meeting is the final hope for bears or this rally might have legs to run. Better safe than sorry.

Cement counters have witnessed huge momentum in yesterday's trade. Keep an eye on power and second run IT space to receive the baton from cement counters.

For today we do not see a major down move in Nifty with side counters doing well

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Indian markets to consolidate

Indian markets are most likely to start the day flat after a big rally on Monday. Investors flocked to stocks and pressed the panic button but this time for buying

On Monday, 118 stocks breached their 52 week highs on Bombay Stock Exchange. Midcap and smallcap stocks are having the best of the times. With large caps leading the way with Reliance Industries Ltd. yet to participate in the rally, one can expect a big rally if Reliance participates.

Is cheap money leading India's rally?

Thanks to central banks around the world holding on the low interest regime, cheap dollars are finding their way to Indian markets. There is a gush of liquidity flowing into the markets at present. We believe this mad rush for participating in India's economic growth in the next 2 years will only spike up. But what makes us jittery is present day global economic situation coupled with the high momentum in speculative stocks. Inflation is alarming despite of RBI is taking right steps with intermittent rate hikes.

While investors tend to get carried away by moves like yesterday, we advice them to hold their nerve as the quality of stocks that are moving up was never good from the last one month. Investment positions are not to be disturbed but we would avoid long trading positions for the next 1-3 months. We stick to our short term bearish view though technicals predict a big move above 5600 (on a closing basis) for Nifty

Monday, September 6, 2010

Buying rush to continue in small and midcaps

Dalal Street is all set to open higher on positive global markets and better than expected jobs data in the US. Asian markets opened the day in green and are expected to close the day flat

Global markets are expected to trade the first half of the week in a range bound fashion. US Markets are closed for labour day week end on Monday. Global equity investors are on sticky turf whether to hang on with their investments or withdraw the same.

Indian Economy - Tough times ahead

Indian economy after witnessing best of the times courtesy government stimulus, increased consumer spending, is ready to hit a road block soon in the form of another rate hike, global market correction.

Weak economic data indicators are pointing to a slide in the US economy. DStreet US market analyst Satish Bhogadi adds "We do not expect a double dip but there will be a considerable correction in the US equity markets. There will be no betterment in the current situation for the next 4 months"

Indian equity markets have done reasonably well outperforming rest of the crowd in the last 6 months. But dissecting the FII data reveals that the inflows have started slowing and might see some outflows in the coming day too. Having said that there is no second thought about the state of Indian markets from a medium and longer term perspective.

We expect this to continue for a shorter phase (1-3 months) and this kind of short corrections will augur well for the long term health of the market.

We see another range bound session with minor volatilitly with small fish jumping in the pond

Friday, September 3, 2010

Buying frenzy to continue in smallcap stocks

Dalal Street will open to a flat to positive global cues on Friday morning with smallcap stocks likely to outperform the benchmark indices.

Smallcap Frenzy

Smallcap stocks are most likely to continue the buying frenzy for some more time. Investors are adviced to hold their nerve before getting into these companies. Many stories will be doing rounds, trying to promote a stock

Also Read : Stocks in news : Zylog, Tata Power, Petronet LNG, GVK Power

"We expect this buying frenzy to continue till mid-next week. Investors are adviced to book profits at regular intervals."

Suzlon Energy Ltd. stock is likely to be in the limelight today also after a surprising short squeeze yesterday.

A subdued trading day with action in smallcap space.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dow scores double ton, Indian smallcaps on the run

Indian markets - The bull is back ?

Yesterday's buying frenzy is likely to continue today also especially in the midcap and smallcap space. Indices will gap up during the initial trades only to cool-off and trade in a band. The action will be shifted to the speculative counters. We do not expect any negative fireworks today also. But at the same time gains will be muted.

This upmove is an oppurtunity for investors and traders to trim their positions. Underlying stregth of the global economy is very weak except for few of the emerging economies like India, China and Brazil

Fortis Healthcare Ltd. is planning to list its shares on Singapore stock exchange and the shares of its pathology arm, Super Religare Laboratories, in India, accoerding to the chairman of the company Malvinder Singh.

Reliance Industries Ltd., through its investment arm,has picked up an additional 0.68% in EIH Ltd on August 31 through a single offmarket deal, pushing it close to the open offer threshold.

State-owned National Aluminium Company Ltd. today said it was considering selling stake in its $3.9-billion (over Rs 18,000 crore) aluminium project in Indonesia in lieu of acquiring equity in coal mines in the island country. - BS

State-owned Indian Bank plans to sell assets worth Rs 900 crore to an asset reconstruction company (ARC).

AstraZeneca Laboratories AB, the London-headquartered pharma giant, is set to ink a deal with Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. for supply of generic finasteride, which is used in the treatment of prostate issues and male pattern baldness.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. bought Diligenta, a Unisys insurance unit and along with it picked up a £250m deal


Clutch Auto : Stock in top gear

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Finally, green ticks are coming

Dalal Street will open to positive global cues today and is likely to trade up for the entire session. We expect markets to shake out one more time before going down. From an investor perspective sitting near the fence and watching the game is the best strategy.

Q1 GDP numbers failed to cheer the investor crowd as they appeared to be on the expected lines. Expect midcap and smallcap stocks to outperform the indices today.

DStreet market analyst Venkata Srikanth says "We advise our clients to press the 'Cashout' button when ever they get a chance in the intermediate upmoves. We expect the market to undergo a severe correction in September

Stocks in news today : Kingfisher Air, NMDC, Natco Pharma

Kolkatta based Uttam Galva Steels Ltd. which was in limielight last year when Mittal acquired 50 pct stake in the company.

From the last one year stock was trading in a narrow band of Rs 100 - Rs 140. The stock showed great strength in yesterday's shaky market. While it is too early to come to a conclusion about a medium term bull trend, one should clearly wait and watch for Rs 140 levels to be taken off with volumes.

A two times close above Rs 140 level will place this stock in the bull zone.
One Year - Weekly chart of Uttam Galva

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Bearish clouds cover Dalal Street

US Markets resumed the slide yesterday after one day of pull back rally on Friday despite economic data falling in line with expectations. Indian market strength is weak, presumed from the last 2 sessions.

Reliance grabs EIH stake

Reliance Industries Ltd. paid Rs 1,021 crore, which is a 22 per cent premium on the company’s current market price of Rs 151 a share, valuing EIH at Rs 7,200 crore. RIL bought 14.2% stake from EIH Ltd. promoter P R S Oberoi and two other promoter entities, Oberoi Hotels Pvt Ltd and Aravali Polymers LLP. Reliance will not participate in the management activities and is treating this investment as a diversifying act.

Hotel & Entertainment stocks are likely to witness strong action in today's trade following this news.

Q1 GDP

The official GDP, a measure of a country's overall official economic output, figures for first fiscal quarter ended June will be released on today. While economists expect 8.6% to 9.2 % growth rate for the Q1 ending June, we at DStreet believe consolidation in economic growth will be witnessed in the coming quarters.

Market momentum will be impacted by Q1 GDP numbers.

Lackluster trading

Markets lack conviction and rightly so the retail investor participation is at a low. We believe this time the retail investor is correct in his own terms and any decent correction will see him taking a plunge into the market.

Lot of cash on sidelines will provide a cushion to the slide in the market. We are in for a long term bull market but yes not with out a meaningful correction

Monday, August 30, 2010

Asia Bulls on a honeymoon,Indian stocks to gap up

Japanese benchmark index Nikkei spiked up considerably today on the back of short covering and BOJ meet. Japanese currency Yen is on a song in the last few weeks, hitting the country's exporters hard. BOJ(Bank of Japan) is most likely to take measures to curb the currency's dream run.

Dalal Street to gap up

D-Street is set to open higher today on the back of positive global cues. US Markets closed with a good gain on Friday and today Asian opens strong enough for Dalal Street bulls to prepare for a decent open.

Here is the catch while many of the global markets are in the midst of a correction, India just started the same. While for today's trade we are cautiously optimistic and bearish for the coming weeks. September might turn out deadly for Indian markets for various reasons.

Analysts expect India's GDP to top out for Apr-June quarter, we at DStreet agree on the same. Indian economy will go soft for next couple of quarters. But softening economy is definitely a good sign after a year and half period's dramatic rise. The softening economy will not deter foreign investments and in fact we believe every major sector in India will get re-rated in the next one year as we gear up for a multi-year bull run but not with out another correction creating confusion among investors

Stocks that are likely to witness action on Monday morning

DNA reports that DB Realty Ltd. is in talks with private equity firms for selling 20% stake in its Bandra Government Colony project

Sesa Goa Ltd. is planning to diversify into steelmaking with an investment of Rs 6,000-9,000 crore, in Orissa and Jharkand - BS

Public sector mining firms NMDC Ltd and Coal India are forming a joint venture with West Bengal Mineral Development and Trading Company to acquire one of the largest coal blocks in the country having reserves of around 19 billion tonnes - ET

Tech Mahindra Ltd. CEO Sanjay Kalra has resigned from the firm after spending around six years in its management.

Jay Shree Tea & Inds. Ltd. (JTIL), a BK Birla Group company, is eyeing tea estates in Rwanda.

PSU Oil India Ltd (OIL) is likely to form a joint venture (JV) with a US-based shale gas company to acquire shale gas assets globally, a top official said


Many stock specific stories are planted in the media and investors are advised to check the depth of fundamentals before taking a stab. We expect markets to gap up and lose some of its gains but close in the green today.

Read : 5 Notable stocks that resisted Friday's carnage

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Kamat Hotels (India) Ltd.
DB Realty Ltd.
Spice Mobility Ltd.
Aarti Industries Ltd.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Stocks on Wall Street tumble again, Dow loses 658 points in 11 sessions

Dalal Street open might open marginally in the red on negative cues from the overseas markets.

Global Market - Snapshot

US stocks tumbled Thursday, with the Dow index closing below the sensitive 10,000 level for the first time in nearly two months, as traders braced for a sharp revision of US economic growth. Medium term outlook remains bearish according to our US based analyst Satish Bhogadi.

Nikkei, the Japanese benchmark index is trading down 1 pct today at 8823 levels, while Australian Index shaved off 0.29 pct.

New F&O series - New hopes

September's series will kick in with out much fan fare. We do expect fireworks to the downside in the markets next month. For now we believe Indian markets are decently valued and only fresh inflows can change the valuations. Indian markets trade near to 18X forward earnings and we will see a multiple of 23-25 in the coming years. Domestic consumption matra is getting stronger and longer and that should be considered as of the major de-coupling theory for Indian market from rest of the globe.

For today expect few midcaps and smallcaps to make some noise while largecaps extend their vacation

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Nifty eyes 5500 levels, global metal stocks weak

Indian markets will go through a volatile session today as F&O expiry is likely to weigh on traders.

Global Markets

US Market fared better on wednesday despite of weak durable goods orders. Asian markets started flat today with Japenese market slipping into red after Yen made another move towards the highs. Austrailia stocks are trading flat with mining stocks trading weak.

Indian Markets - Expiry hangover

F&O expiry is always tricky and with Nifty hovering between 5400 and 5500 levels it is a tough day ahead. Ideally Nifty is expected to close near to the strike price on the last day causing max pain to traders. Metals, realty and auto pushed the markets lower yesterday. We expect realty sector to show some resilience today after back to back loses.

Speculative stocks - Hop on

Investors should be careful with stocks like Prakash Steelage, Usha Martin Education. While many of us have seen the new listing movies lot of times, it is ideal to sit back and watch the show instead of participating.

DStreet market analyst Venkata Srikanth says "We still believe markets have some more steam left before the carnage. We expect underperforming sectors like Hotels, Power to participate in the midcap rally. From an investor perspective we are advicing our clients to wait till September for a better entry point

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

US Markets slide, D-Street gear up for selling tide

US Markets extended their nightmarish run after pending Home sales dropped a record 27.2% in July.

Global news

Japanese currency Yen hit a 15-month high against the Greenback (USD) on investors shunning equities and commodities. Japanese central bank might intervene soon. In another interesting development which might ignite memories of recent Euro crisis, S&P downgraded Ireland's rating to 'AA-'. Global economy along with the equity markets face tough times ahead

How long will India be resilient ?

Indian economy fortunately was driven by local factors along with FII inflows. While India has been the hottest destination for FIIs in the last 18 months, domestic consumption story might keep Indian market alive. But there are many ifs and buts attached to the market upmove. If global markets continue to slide and India stays on the sidelines there is a fear that citing cheaper valuations else where FIIs might exit Indian markets in favour of better returns.

With F&O expiry slated for tomorrow we do not expect a massive downside to the market. Having said that we are confident of a quick but major correction unwinding sometime next month.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Dalal Street to open flat

Mixed global cues greet Dalal Street when it opens for trade on Monday. Asian markets are largely in the red except one or two markets. Australia after opening in the red moved swiftly into green after the country's general election is headed towards a hung. Expectations are building up on new government to abolish the mining tax. US markets recovered from the lows of the day but still ended in red on Friday.

Global M&A deals are on the rise. Reports suggest world's No. 2 beer maker SABMiller PLC is interested in Foster's Group Ltd., the largest brewer in Australia with the approximate deal value pegged at USD 10.9 billion

What is the next theme ?

DStreet Analysts still feel there is some more steam in the sector rotation theme and there are two possible themes after sector rotation, while one is the group theme and then the small cap theme. We have seen the group theme kicked out on Friday with Jindal group stocks jumping from no where. Other major groups include Birla, Tata, Ambani and few more. And finally the small cap theme which might mark the end of the current bull run at least for the short term.

Under performing Sectors

Sectors that are under performing the market include Shipping, Power, Infrastructure, Hotels, Metals etc. We acknowledge that the pep-talk among the FII community is turning bearish on India or Overbought. Investors are advised to stay cautious but medium term outlook remains bullish

Friday, August 20, 2010

Stocks Set For Shaky Start

US Markets tumbled thanks to dismal regional manufacturing data and after US jobless claims jumped to a nine month high. Indian markets might receive a jolt in the form of overseas cues when they open for trading on Friday morning.

Overseas markets

Taking a cue from US markets, Asia tumbled in the early morning trades. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4% to 9,232.6 while Australian market was down by 1.14 pct at 4,428.10DStreet US based analyst Satish Bhogadi commenting on yesterday's trade in the US markets said "US economy is deteriorating gradually. We stick to our ealier S&P SELL target of 950. We see more pain in the second quarter as US Manufacturing slowdown will continue."

In another intersting M&A (Merger & Acquisition) deal world's largest computer chip maker Intel paid $48 per share to acquire antivirus company McAfee.The deal is valued at $7.68 billion.

Inflation worries ease

Food inflation eased to to 10.35 pct from 11.4 pct much to the relief of regulators. RBI went on a rate hiking spree to curb inflation. The reserve bank also hinted of another hike in September. Inflation is expected to further ease in the coming days.

“We may raise inflation forecast for India in our next Economic Outlook slated for September 28. It may depend on how Monsoon plays out,” said cheif economist of Asian Development Bank (ADB) Jong-Wha Lee.

Markets gung-ho

Indian markets are gung-ho on upbeat economic outlook. But troubles in the form of global economic situation, another round of rate hike from RBI await. We will see a gap down open today on the back of global cues but the intrinsic strength in the market is still bullish and it is highly unlikely we might end deep in the red.

Sector rotation continues it was Cement, Airlines and midcap pharma that shined on the street. Watch out for untouched sectors like Power, Infra, Paper, Metals, Telecom, Engineering and Sugar.