Thursday, September 16, 2010

Can Mr.Subbarao take the bull by the horns?

Global markets extended the recent rally with minor gains on Wednesday as Wall Street closed half percent. With no major news flow, equity markets across the globe are subdued with a positive bias. Japanese markets are exceptional due to Yen driven news. Indian markets are a different story alltogether.

Asia up on thursday

Asian markets are trading up thursday morning as Yen extends wednesday's slide on fears of further intervention by BOJ. Nikkei is up 0.7 pct while Australia is down 0.3 pct

RBI Policy meet

In what can be termed as the most significant event in the last 2 months, given the current euphoric situation RBI will be announcing the changes to the monetary policy (if any) in a mid-quarter review. Pranab's recent comments indicate that a rate hike is surely in the offing.

In case RBI gives the hike a miss, we are in for a bigger bubble. Bulls will go on a rampage if RBI fails to arrest the inflation. A 25 basis points hike would take its repo rate(the rate at which it lends to banks) to 6 per cent and the reverse repo rate(at which it borrows from banks) to 4.75 per cent.

Finally the D-day has arrived and it is ideal to stay mum for today instead of taking any positions with out proper interpretation. Risky traders can play the volatility. The positive buzz is getting too strong these days. We are still not clear on the direction of the market but continue to believe our old version of correction though the chances have slimmed down a lot.