Stocks are likely to trade in a narrow band as investors are undecided about the direction of the markets. Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to trade in a band of 80 points or nearly 0.5 percent for the day. The volumes might be really low considering the holiday season, which has kept the FII's away from the market.
There is no immediate solution in sight to the lack of clear direction in the market. The fact is we will remain at the mercy of global cues and foreign money. Any domestic booster is usually intra-day in nature like the Friday's reversal post the IIP report. Don’t press the panic button in case of any fresh bad news. Stay alert and stick to a stock centric approach. This week’s trend will hinge on what the Fed says at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday. Till then, we expect the key indices to remain sideways. The Nifty will continue to trade in a 5000-5200 range. It remains to be seen whether the Nifty manages to decisively close above 5180 in the remaining days of the year.
There will surely be few more speed bumps ahead in some form or the other. The recovery in several parts of the world will be a ‘stop-and-go’ affair, especially in the developed world. It is taking different shapes across the globe, with emerging economies such as China and India better placed. Even within the industrialized world and developing markets, the recovery trend is a mixed one. The crucial event to watch will be the Fed’s ‘exit’ strategy. This will then decide the fate of the dollar, whose weakness has been driving up the risk appetite. How various governments execute their ‘exit’ plans and its fallout on their respective economies is another matter of concern.
What is noteworthy however is that though the market has been stuck in a ‘no-man’s land’ for some time now there hasn’t been a major breakdown in sentiment. Every time there has been a big fall, the key indices have rebounded smartly. The case in point is the Dubai debt fiasco. Even last week, amidst more sovereign debt concerns the market held its nerves. The reaction to the lower than forecast IIP data was exaggerated. So, there is still hope that the bulls will regain their hold unless we are hit by another steroid from the external world. Don't pare your equity exposure substantially. At the same time, wait for some clarity on direction before adding fresh positions. Keep some cash handy as there will be opportunities you can capitalise on in the near term.
Stocks that could be in action today include the likes of Godrej Consumer, DLF, Den Networks, AB Nuvo and PSL.
Banking and Realty stocks weighed on the indices on Friday and these sectors are likely to be subdued. Metal stocks will be in a bright spot today, especially Aluminum stocks like Hindalco and NALCO might show strength this morning. Stay away from Realty counters like Unitech and DLF for now. Suzlon Energy is another stock that might outperform the rest of the stocks in the index.
Travel and leisure company Cox & Kings (India) Ltd closed 29% higher at Rs 430 ,the strongest opening day gains amongst maiden public issues so far this year. The stock is likely to touch Rs 450 level in the short term. We see the stock cooling off later in the week. So fresh buying is not advised above Rs 450 level.Midcap stocks like Raj Oil, Pritish Nandy Communications and Praksh Ind were active and show good strength on the charts from an intra-day perspective.
A positive close on Wall Street and subsiding debt concerns are positives to the market, while a great deal of uncertainty about the current direction of the market and lack of positive triggers is a big hurdle for the bulls in the market. Overall, a sluggish day of trade is on the cards with Midcaps and SmallCap stocks spicing up the screen.
News Roundup - Dec 14 2009
Vodafone Group plans to offload its 4.39% indirect holding in Bharti Airtel.
ONGC has sought levy of windfall tax on any crude oil price of over US$60 per barrel to pay for fuel subsidies.
BHEL is in talks with L&T and Pipavav Shipyard to jointly build off-shore oil rigs.
Reliance Infra bags Rs10bn Kandla-Mundra road project in Gujarat.
Government has initiated the process of divesting a further 8.4% stake in NMDC through a fresh public offering.
Tata Steel is in talks with international investors to raise at least Rs50bn through equity and an equivalent amount through debt.
ONGC lost a bid to acquire a large oilfield in Iraq to a consortium of Chinese, Malaysian and French energy firms.
Taro Pharmaceutical asked its shareholders to reject a takeover bid by Sun Pharmaceuticals ahead of its AGM on December 31.
ACC plans to review its decision of scaling down the company's ready-mix concrete business and recommence the expansion plan by the middle of 2010.
GAIL (India) is looking at the D6 block and re-gasified LNG as probable sources of gas for its ongoing Dabhol-Bengaluru and Kochi-Kanjirkkod-Bengaluru-Mangalore pipeline projects
Tata Power to commission first unit of Dagachhu in 2013.
DLF is set to merge the real estate investment trust DLF Assets into itself.
SAIL and Tata Steel have submitted to the government a joint proposal asking to be allocated Coal India long-neglected coking coal mines.
DLF, which was in talks with Brussels-based GDF Suez Energy International and Akuo Energy International for selling its wind mill business, is set to seal the deal by the month-end.
Aditya Birla Group to hive off financial services business.
Procter & Gamble agreed to buy Sara Lee’s air-care brands, including Ambi Pur, for about US$700m.
Apollo Tyres plans to increase tyre prices by up to 10% by this month end.
Parsvnath Developers has raised Rs750mn by selling 50% stake in a housing project to US-based PE firm Sun Apollo.
Jindal Power plans to invest Rs650bn in new power projects and part of the financing for these would be done through its up to Rs100bn IPO.
The Tiruchi unit of BHEL plans to consider four-five companies as candidates for acquisition.
Power Finance Corporation plans to raise US$300mn through external commercial borrowings.
Shree Renuka Sugars in preliminary talks to acquire Balrampur Chini.
Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd inks pact with Torrent Power to develop a 1000MW coal-based power plant at Pipavav in Amreli district of Saurashtra region.
PNB plans to open 100,000 biometric ATMs by 2013.
JK Lakshmi Cement plans to set up a cement factory at Jharli in Jhajjar district of Haryana.
Vodafone Group plans to list its Indian arm and was open to acquisitions when opportunities are available in the country.
VW-Suzuki plans to carry out hybrid car R&D in India.
PTC to acquire coal assets abroad.
ONGC plans to raise US$1bn to service Imperial loan.
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer it temporarily suspended operations at its factory in the industrial estate of Dowlaiswaram in Andhra Pradesh, due to political unrest.
Merck Inc said it had no immediate plans to delist its newly-acquired subsidiary, Fulford India.
BSNL today became the first company in the country to start wireless broadband services and announced a tariff starting with Rs140 per month for rural areas.
The government plans to work out a new subsidy formula to replace the current system of compensating the oil marketing companies for selling below cost through issue of oil bonds.
India’s Industrial output expanded by 10.3% in the month of October from a year ago.
Import duty on equipments halved to 2.5% for mega power projects.
Foreign exchange reserves rose by US$651mn to US$287bn, for the week ended December 4
Centre may allow private developers to use surplus land in housing projects under the Rajiv Awas Yojana for commercial activity, according to the Union Minister of State for Urban Development.
Government says there is no proposal to tax capital inflows in to the stock markets.
PSU oil marketing companies are projected to incur under recoveries of Rs455bn on the four petroleum products in 2009-10 based on the refinery gate prices of the first fortnight of December.
Goods and services tax under the new tax regime, would have four slabs and these are likely to be unveiled within 15 days, says Chairman of empowered committee of state finance ministers.
The government may delay its plans to introduce a uniform licence fee for mobile phone operators.