The massive resistance at around 3,450 is unlikely to be overcome unless there is a volume explosion.
The market continued to surge ahead. The Nifty hit intra-days highs of 3,400-plus before settling to close at 3,342 points for a gain of 4.08 per cent. The Sensex was up 4.4 per cent at 10,803 points. The Defty gained 4.75 per cent as the rupee recovered to above the 50 level.
While FIIs were heavy buyers through the week, domestic institutions also bought, thereby contributing to the rally. Volumes rose perceptibly in both the cash and derivative segments. The advances-to-declines ratio was positive. The broader BSE 500 was up 5.2 per cent.
Outlook: Most of the signals were positive and the market tested resistance at around 3,400. However, the rally is looking overbought and a reaction is overdue. There is massive resistance at around 3,450. That is unlikely to be overcome unless there's a volume explosion. On the downside, there's support at around 3,225 and strong secondary support at 3,100.
Rationale: The market has seen gains of over 31 per cent since March 6, rallying from the 2,539 mark. It was unable to beat resistance between 3,350 and 3,400, though it tested that level in the last two sessions. Momentum signals are overbought and the RSI is also pretty high. This could mean a reaction. If this is a typical bear market rally, the downturn would be severe. The market could easily lose back the 30 per cent it has gained in the next four weeks.
Counter-view: The 200 Day Moving Average is between 3,440 and 3,470, depending on method of computation. If the Nifty closes above that level, there would be room for optimism and hopes that the long-term bear market was coming to an end. In theory, the rally could last for up to six weeks. But proximity to elections and Fibonacci time calculations suggest that it is likely to peter out within the next 5-10 sessions. Either way, expect high intra-day volatility on high volumes.
Bulls & Bears: The Nifty Junior and Midcaps 50 outperformed the Nifty/Sensex pair this week, mainly because the gainers within these indices rose far more than the losers fell. Metals, real estate and housing finance stocks were among the bullish drivers with most major banks also doing well.
IT stocks saw a small pullback as the rupee strengthened. However more than short-term currency fluctuations, Infosys' 2008-09 results and advisory are liable to prove crucial to future direction in IT industry scrips. Towards the end of the truncated week, stocks started running into resistance at higher levels, mirroring the position of the indices.
MICRO TECHNICALS
ICICI Bank
Current price: Rs 398
Target price: Rs 365
The stock is ripe for some profit-booking. It's hitting resistance above Rs 400. On the downside, there is support between Rs 360-Rs 370 and that is likely to be tested on intra-day basis at least. Keep a stop at Rs 405 and go short. Book profits below Rs 365. Be prepared for 10 per cent intra-day swings.
Punj Lloyd
Current price: Rs 114
Target price: Rs 125
The stock has made what seems like a valid breakout from a base at Rs 105. It has a potential target of Rs 125. Keep a stop at Rs 110 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 122. If the stock dips below Rs 106, the next reliable support is at Rs 97. So a short would be possible.
Suzlon Energy
Current price: Rs 57.5
Target price: Rs 63
The stock has made a breakout past resistance at Rs 54 on a volume expansion. It has a potential target of Rs 63 and perhaps Rs 65. Keep a stop at Rs 55 and go long. There is massive resistance at Rs 67- Rs 68 so the stock is very unlikely to cross the level.
LIC Housing
Current price: Rs 282
Target price: Rs 300
The stock has broken out past resistance at Rs 250 on high volumes. It could achieve a target of about 300. Keep a stop at Rs 276 and go long. Be prepared for major bursts of volatility in what is usually a very stable stock. Book some profits above the Rs 290-mark.
Unitech
Current price: Rs 42
Target price: Rs 48
The stock has moved up on strong volume expansion. It has a potential upside till the Rs 48 level and if there is a burst of profit-booking, it could collapse back till the Rs 37-Rs 38 level. Keep a stop at Rs 40.5 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 46.