F&O Expiry Hangover to end today

&O expiry for the month of September, which was dictating terms from the last 3-4 trading sessions will finally come to an end today. Allahabad High court will announce the Ayodhya verdict at 03:30 PM.

Global markets : US & Asia flat

US markets closed flat while Asia is currently is trading the same. European woes have started increasing but none of the markets reacted voilently. Buzz about European crisis might not tamper market euphoria but a new crisis can.


Mahindra Satyam : On the right track

Mahindra Satyam says it saw revenues at a higher-than-expected Rs 8,800 crore and a net loss of Rs 8,176 crore. The management says the company has not fully recovered yet and a full recovery will take up to two more years.

We believe the stock is only a long term hold and given the merger proposal in the next 6 to 8 months, we expect a raw deal for Mahindra Satyam shareholders in case the merger happens.

FIIs with single client will not be allowed to trade in India from October 01 says regulator SEBI. Lot of IPOs sucked in money from the secondary market and the big one is yet to come. Coal India is coming out with a huge IPO, halfway through this month and is expected to absorb more liquidity.

We expect a flat trading day today with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to close around 6,000 levels

All eyes on Mahindra Satyam's audited numbers today

Dalal Street

Mahindra Satyam, the cynosure of traders is all set to disclose revenue and profit figures for 2008-09 and 2009-10 later in the day today. Last week Mahindra Satyam Ltd announced that it would de-list from the New York Stock Exchange as it would not be able to meet the October 15 deadline for preparing financial statements under US accounting standards. A financial newspaper reported that Mahindra Satyam might settle with Raju's family over the latter's claim for Rs 1250 crore investment in Satyam.

Indian markets might take a few more days of breather before the upmove. Atleast from a short term we do not see major issue with the market. Retail participation is reportedly on an uptrend.

Markets likely to witness subdued opening

Airline stocks to see interest on Southwest's Airtran acquisition

Indian equity markets are likely to open flat Tuesday morning after weak global markets and inability to sustain at higher levels in Monday's trade.

US Markets closed in the red despite of M&A deals. Low-cost carrier Southwest bought AirTran for $1.4b, a premium of 60 pct. Indian airline stocks are likely to see some interest backed by this news.

Asian markets in red

Nikkei is trading nearly 68 points down while Australia is trading flat. The Bank of Japan will discuss further easing of its monetary policy at its upcoming board meeting, according to a report published Tuesday.

Dalal Street - Flows continue

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped nearly $18 billion (Rs 81,880 crore) in Indian stocks so far this year, their highest investment in dollar terms in a calendar year.

In September alone FIIs have net-bought shares worth nearly $5 billion (Rs 22,700 crore). While India continues to be a hot destination for FIIs, we expect minor hiccups in the form of swift corrections to hit the market time and again.

Dalal Street might take on new highs next month. With US economy struggling, Euro crisis end not in sight and market factoring part of these concerns, the situation is favouring the bulls in the medium term. Coal India IPO is a small trigger for bears but given the kind of inflows the issue might not have an impact on D-Street.

F&O expiry (30th September) will see markets trading in a extremely volatile fashion.

Dalal Street to see Dhamaka opening

Bull breeze is blowing in Mumbai on Monday morning with investors excited enough to see D-Street closing in on the new highs. US Markets shot up Friday on better economic indicators.

Asia jumps on US cues

Nikkei is trading up one percent, despite of Japanese trade surplus coming below expectations while Australia jumped 1.25 pct.

Big Bull - Cautious on the market

Speaking to a private business channel Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said "Investors need to be cautious as the gain in equities has been “very rapid in the last 15 to 20 days,". He also acknowledged that "the Indian economy and the Indian growth story is on a continuous uphill climb.” in the longer term.

High put-call ratio

NSE's Open Interest Volume Put Call Ratio climbed to 1.93 on Sept. 22, the highest since March 26, 2009. This shows traders are trying to hedge their positions by buying put options. While F&O expiry slated for coming Thursday will be a road block for the Indices to crack new highs soon. Volatility will only increase in the next few trading sessions.

Sector is a must and sitting in Banking and Auto will ensure investors miss the next bus. Realty as expected will be one of the sectors driving the market and Reliance is another big one which has the potential to keep the momentum running.

Given the kind of inflows India Inc is witnessing it is really tough to think of correction at this point of time. But when it comes it will be wild enough to drive investors crazy

Dalal Street likely to open in the red, only to bounce back

Dalal Street : Watch for a bounce

Stocks on dalal street will open negatively to the global cues but might see a sharp bounce today. Bank stocks are likely to be under pressure today also. We advise subscribers to slowly get out of bank and auto sectors for the next six months except one or two stocks which still look under valued. We had a coverage today on a smallcap steel stock that is ready to deliver approx 70 pct gains in the next six to eight months.

Focus on Infrastructure stocks, second rung IT & metal stocks and Realty might see a surprise upmove in the coming days

Another volatile day on cards, Asia trending lower

Indian markets will open to mildly negative cues from the global markets with US deflation worries causing nervourness among investeor community. Wall Street ended marginally in the red with Dow losing 22 points and Nasdaq down by 15 points.

Nikkei is trading down by 0.3 pct while Australia is down by 0.2 pct. Australian dollar hits new 26-month high against the US dollar on thursday while New Zealand second-quarter GDP went up by 0.2 pct, below economists expectation.

Dalal Street : Waiting for more inflows or cues ?

After a mamouth rally Dalal Street is waiting for the next step. While F&O expiry slated for next week might add more volatility to the indices, Markets still look good for another upswing with Nifty support level pegged at 5800.

Infrastructure stocks are showing some life in yesterday's trade. Watch out for offbeat sectors like Ceramics to buzz on the street. While power sector started participating, there are many sectors that missed the rally. While Banking, Auto sectors are likely to be the laggards in the next 6 months to one year time frame, we expect Realty, Infra to pick up pace in the coming months

Indian market to extend the rally, caution warranted

Dalal Street is likely to open in the positive zone on Wednesday morning with sectoral rotation pushing the markets up. IT pack lead the index gainers while Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. extended the dream run, gaining 14 pct in the last one month.

Tata Power Company Ltd. joined the winners league with an upmove of nearly 3 pct. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. is another interesting stock in this space. Infra stocks are showing signs of life with IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd. inching up thanks to the new IPO's from the same sector.

Asia trading flat, Bernanke keeps rates steady

The US Federal Reserve for the first time raised direct concern that the nation's economy may be headed into a deflation trap and expressed new readiness to take more action to avert a serious turn for the worse.

Wall Street closed flat pushing the Asian markets to trade in a narrow band.

Avoid midcaps and smallcap stocks

Midcap and Smallcap stocks are going through a silent correction as index stocks extend the rally. We advice investors to avoid the second run stocks and wait for a decent correction before accumulating quality stocks.

BHEL is likely to grab index fund interest as the stock has underperformed in the last one month. Keep an eye

Wall Street in top gear, S&P breaks out

8 IPO's hitting the market

Dalal Street is unperturbed by the new IPO's. Ideally when big ticket IPO's arrive on the street, liquidity issues will hit the secondary markets. But given the current Euphoric situation we do not see this as a worthy discussion point. The companies, which are hitting the primary market this week include, Orient Green Power (Rs 900 crore), VA Tech Wabag (Rs 500 crore), Electrosteel (Rs 285 crore), Tecpro Systems (Rs 268 crore), Ashoka Buildcon (Rs 225 crore) and Gallant Ispat (Rs 40.50 crore),Ramky Infrastructure (Rs 530 crore) and Cantabil Retail (Rs 105 crore).

All eyes are on Nifty breaking 6,000 levels today and with out much fan fare Nifty is likely to gap up above 6000 but there might be a small shakeout once the levels are taken out. Trade with caution till the 6000 levels are digested

Following stocks might see intraday movement (to the upside) today.
Zicom Electronic Security Systems Ltd.

Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd.

Triveni Engineering & Inds. Ltd.

Varun Industries Ltd

PTC India Ltd

FII flows to extend the momentum,watch out for realty midcaps

Dalal Street opens to a positive optimism on Monday with FII inflows ready to smack this market to higher levels. US Markets are exactly at the resistance level and for now, is unable to crack the resistance despite of good news.

Asia trading weak

After a great trading week,Australia opened weak on Monday morning with Japan's Nikkei closing on account of a holiday. We expect a dull day for global markets today.

Mining Policy :

Ministerial panel apporved a mining law that seeks to cut the time taken to allocate mines and simplify a process that currently requires companies to pass through a maze of approvals from federal and state governments. The new law also proposes sharing profits between miners and local residents in an effort to reduce opposition to projects.

Industry is against the profit sharing while rest of the aspects seem to be 'OK' with them.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. has reportedly signed a deal to buy aircraft parts-making machinery from Boeing Co.'s plant in Melbourne, Australia. Stock is likely to be in action in today's trade.

WSJ reports that Reliance MediaWorks Ltd. is planning to open another 60 screens in India and 20 in the U.S. this fiscal year through March 2011, quoting a senior executive.

VIX on the rise

Volatility Index (VIX) of Nifty has been rising along with Nifty. It closed at a 20-day high of 19.4. This signals caution, as fear has crept into the market.

But underlying sentiment is quite bullish and we do see any suddent surprises to the downside now. While experts are of the opinion that a 3-6 month rally is in the offing and retail investors are likely to jump in soon.

Dalal Street to see a subdued opening, Bank stocks might witness selling pressure

Banks not inclined to raise rates

Reports indicate that banks are unwilling to pass on the rate hike to the customer. RBI yesterday raised repo rates by 25 basis points. Stocks from the sector might see some pressure on this news.

It would be interesting to see what sector might take charge in case of a renewed upmove today. But Banks and Autos will lead the correction in case yesterday's slide extends.

Today's trade is very important from a short term direction perspective. For investors this market is too confusing to invest in. But there are many stocks that have not participated in the rally with better fundamentals. We see these stocks performing well in the next one month irrespective of a correction

Can Mr.Subbarao take the bull by the horns?

Global markets extended the recent rally with minor gains on Wednesday as Wall Street closed half percent. With no major news flow, equity markets across the globe are subdued with a positive bias. Japanese markets are exceptional due to Yen driven news. Indian markets are a different story alltogether.

Asia up on thursday

Asian markets are trading up thursday morning as Yen extends wednesday's slide on fears of further intervention by BOJ. Nikkei is up 0.7 pct while Australia is down 0.3 pct

RBI Policy meet

In what can be termed as the most significant event in the last 2 months, given the current euphoric situation RBI will be announcing the changes to the monetary policy (if any) in a mid-quarter review. Pranab's recent comments indicate that a rate hike is surely in the offing.

In case RBI gives the hike a miss, we are in for a bigger bubble. Bulls will go on a rampage if RBI fails to arrest the inflation. A 25 basis points hike would take its repo rate(the rate at which it lends to banks) to 6 per cent and the reverse repo rate(at which it borrows from banks) to 4.75 per cent.

Finally the D-day has arrived and it is ideal to stay mum for today instead of taking any positions with out proper interpretation. Risky traders can play the volatility. The positive buzz is getting too strong these days. We are still not clear on the direction of the market but continue to believe our old version of correction though the chances have slimmed down a lot.

Bulls hell-bent to step back, side counters to gain

Wall Street investors cheered Basel norms, resulting in a positive close for Dow Jones and Nasdaq on Monday. Basel-III, as it is popularly called will require banks to hold more capital than they did before the crisis. Banks will have time till 2019 to comply to these norms.

Bank stocks on Dalal Street had a feast yesterday partly due to Basel-III though India's banks see no significant impact at this point of time.

Asia trading mixed

After big gains yesterday, Asian markets are trading in red with Japan's Nikkei losing half percent. Meanwhile Australian shares moved up half percent.

More positive talk on the street

This is how things change overnight as far as equity markets are concerned. Analysts who are extremely bearish till yesterday started turning bullish. While Analysts at DStreet stick to the same analysis, momentum seems to be on the bullish side for the time being.

Dalal Street's valuations are getting expensive at least from FY 11 earnings perspective. The current up move will be more dangerous without meaningful correction. Having said this we are still invested 30-35 pct in our real-time portfolios.

Expect a choppy session today after a positive open. We expect the side counters to gain after missing out on yesterday's rally

Stocks look good for an intraday upmove in the descending order of priority

Tarapur Transformers
Arvind Ltd.
Balaji Telefilms Ltd.
Arvind Ltd.
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd

Positive cues every where, D-Street to gap up

Strong IIP data and higher inflation makes a strong case for rate hike

Come 16th September, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chairman Subbarao will be under severe pressure to announce a rate hike. While the feelers from the Finance ministry clearly indicates that hike is imminent, the extent of the hike is unknown.

Market sources are undecided while we expect a 25 basis rate hike and anything above that will be a big negative. We do not see a case for more than 25 basis point rate cut though.

Global positives


US Markets closed the last 2 trading sessions in green on better than expected economic data. But overall the situation is very sketchy as far as global markets are concerned. On the other hand china's economy is showing flamboyance but inflation concerns still remain.

Asian markets are trading strong on Monday morning with Japan's Nikkei inching up 1 pct and South Korea's Kospi, up half percent.

Strong IIP data

India’s industrial output surged 13.76% in July from a year ago, a good 6 percentage points above the median analyst forecast and far higher than the June figure, downwardly revised to 5.76%. Capital goods stocks might be in the limelight today.

Economists expect IIP to come down to single digits in the next two to three months, also because of a “strong base effect”.

Inflation

Inflation data is due on September 14 might set another case for RBI. Inflation numbers above 10 pct might propel the central bank to go for a rate hike. Food inflation rose to 11.47 per cent during the last week of August.

According to Mr.Montek Singh, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission the inflation numbers will come down drastically to the range of 5-6 percent. We believe this is tough to achieve given the macro economic conditions.

Markets ahead


We expect markets to trade positively today but as we approach the 16th deadline we remain extremely cautious as market might not take the news to heart. If correction gives this week a miss then we are in for a feast for the rest of the month

Nifty to have positive open

All eyes on RBI Policy

While the current momentum is driven by rush of funds from across the globe, there is an increasing voice on valuation theory.Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India dipped for the second consecutive month, by 49 per cent to $ 1.78 billion in July and FII Inflows in August too indicate a slow down.

Timing the correction is the toughest part and lets examine the probable events that might well trigger the correction. We expect RBI's policy meet on 16th September as the biggest trigger for correction in the extreme short term. The other possible event we can think of is European crisis which is showing legs in the last one week.

For today we expect markets to trade in a range with a positive bias with small stocks extending their run

Dalal Street to see a subdued start

We might not see any major reaction to global events today, just like the street responded over the last two months. But one should clearly note the current rally is purely
driven by cheap dollars. The depth of European crisis is not known while US economic data is mixed and clearly indicates a slide. Next week's RBI policy (16th Sept) meeting is the final hope for bears or this rally might have legs to run. Better safe than sorry.

Cement counters have witnessed huge momentum in yesterday's trade. Keep an eye on power and second run IT space to receive the baton from cement counters.

For today we do not see a major down move in Nifty with side counters doing well

Indian markets to consolidate

Indian markets are most likely to start the day flat after a big rally on Monday. Investors flocked to stocks and pressed the panic button but this time for buying

On Monday, 118 stocks breached their 52 week highs on Bombay Stock Exchange. Midcap and smallcap stocks are having the best of the times. With large caps leading the way with Reliance Industries Ltd. yet to participate in the rally, one can expect a big rally if Reliance participates.

Is cheap money leading India's rally?

Thanks to central banks around the world holding on the low interest regime, cheap dollars are finding their way to Indian markets. There is a gush of liquidity flowing into the markets at present. We believe this mad rush for participating in India's economic growth in the next 2 years will only spike up. But what makes us jittery is present day global economic situation coupled with the high momentum in speculative stocks. Inflation is alarming despite of RBI is taking right steps with intermittent rate hikes.

While investors tend to get carried away by moves like yesterday, we advice them to hold their nerve as the quality of stocks that are moving up was never good from the last one month. Investment positions are not to be disturbed but we would avoid long trading positions for the next 1-3 months. We stick to our short term bearish view though technicals predict a big move above 5600 (on a closing basis) for Nifty

Buying rush to continue in small and midcaps

Dalal Street is all set to open higher on positive global markets and better than expected jobs data in the US. Asian markets opened the day in green and are expected to close the day flat

Global markets are expected to trade the first half of the week in a range bound fashion. US Markets are closed for labour day week end on Monday. Global equity investors are on sticky turf whether to hang on with their investments or withdraw the same.

Indian Economy - Tough times ahead

Indian economy after witnessing best of the times courtesy government stimulus, increased consumer spending, is ready to hit a road block soon in the form of another rate hike, global market correction.

Weak economic data indicators are pointing to a slide in the US economy. DStreet US market analyst Satish Bhogadi adds "We do not expect a double dip but there will be a considerable correction in the US equity markets. There will be no betterment in the current situation for the next 4 months"

Indian equity markets have done reasonably well outperforming rest of the crowd in the last 6 months. But dissecting the FII data reveals that the inflows have started slowing and might see some outflows in the coming day too. Having said that there is no second thought about the state of Indian markets from a medium and longer term perspective.

We expect this to continue for a shorter phase (1-3 months) and this kind of short corrections will augur well for the long term health of the market.

We see another range bound session with minor volatilitly with small fish jumping in the pond

Buying frenzy to continue in smallcap stocks

Dalal Street will open to a flat to positive global cues on Friday morning with smallcap stocks likely to outperform the benchmark indices.

Smallcap Frenzy

Smallcap stocks are most likely to continue the buying frenzy for some more time. Investors are adviced to hold their nerve before getting into these companies. Many stories will be doing rounds, trying to promote a stock

Also Read : Stocks in news : Zylog, Tata Power, Petronet LNG, GVK Power

"We expect this buying frenzy to continue till mid-next week. Investors are adviced to book profits at regular intervals."

Suzlon Energy Ltd. stock is likely to be in the limelight today also after a surprising short squeeze yesterday.

A subdued trading day with action in smallcap space.

Dow scores double ton, Indian smallcaps on the run

Indian markets - The bull is back ?

Yesterday's buying frenzy is likely to continue today also especially in the midcap and smallcap space. Indices will gap up during the initial trades only to cool-off and trade in a band. The action will be shifted to the speculative counters. We do not expect any negative fireworks today also. But at the same time gains will be muted.

This upmove is an oppurtunity for investors and traders to trim their positions. Underlying stregth of the global economy is very weak except for few of the emerging economies like India, China and Brazil

Fortis Healthcare Ltd. is planning to list its shares on Singapore stock exchange and the shares of its pathology arm, Super Religare Laboratories, in India, accoerding to the chairman of the company Malvinder Singh.

Reliance Industries Ltd., through its investment arm,has picked up an additional 0.68% in EIH Ltd on August 31 through a single offmarket deal, pushing it close to the open offer threshold.

State-owned National Aluminium Company Ltd. today said it was considering selling stake in its $3.9-billion (over Rs 18,000 crore) aluminium project in Indonesia in lieu of acquiring equity in coal mines in the island country. - BS

State-owned Indian Bank plans to sell assets worth Rs 900 crore to an asset reconstruction company (ARC).

AstraZeneca Laboratories AB, the London-headquartered pharma giant, is set to ink a deal with Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. for supply of generic finasteride, which is used in the treatment of prostate issues and male pattern baldness.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. bought Diligenta, a Unisys insurance unit and along with it picked up a £250m deal


Clutch Auto : Stock in top gear

Finally, green ticks are coming

Dalal Street will open to positive global cues today and is likely to trade up for the entire session. We expect markets to shake out one more time before going down. From an investor perspective sitting near the fence and watching the game is the best strategy.

Q1 GDP numbers failed to cheer the investor crowd as they appeared to be on the expected lines. Expect midcap and smallcap stocks to outperform the indices today.

DStreet market analyst Venkata Srikanth says "We advise our clients to press the 'Cashout' button when ever they get a chance in the intermediate upmoves. We expect the market to undergo a severe correction in September

Stocks in news today : Kingfisher Air, NMDC, Natco Pharma

Kolkatta based Uttam Galva Steels Ltd. which was in limielight last year when Mittal acquired 50 pct stake in the company.

From the last one year stock was trading in a narrow band of Rs 100 - Rs 140. The stock showed great strength in yesterday's shaky market. While it is too early to come to a conclusion about a medium term bull trend, one should clearly wait and watch for Rs 140 levels to be taken off with volumes.

A two times close above Rs 140 level will place this stock in the bull zone.
One Year - Weekly chart of Uttam Galva