Another flat day expected

F&O expiry is weighing on Indian marklets with the max pain pegging Nifty at 5400. Midcaps continued to fire and yesterday's clear winner was V-Guard. Stock jumped on huge volumes.

US Markets too continued to trade flat. Economic data continued to pour in pretty weak in th US. Watch out for a melt down soon. But for now corporate profits are running the show.

Hanging on....

Rate hike has no impact on the markets and we do not see any soon. We expected bears might take a shot at the hike, given the expiry this week.US Markets closed flat while rest of asia is trading mixed.

These are undoubtedly confusing times for investors as Indian markets were already placed on a strong wicket but lacking momentm. Reliance Industries might give the much needed boost for the markets. Retail push in Indian markets too is a big miss though F&O volumes are high

European stress test fizzles outm, markets to move higher

European bank stress test fizzled out on friday and only fewer than expected banks failed in the tests. While there is a strong critisicm that the tests were not strong enough, bulls have a different idea when it comes to equity markets. After dilly dallying for 2 hours US Markets finally decided to go up as the risk reduced, propelled by strong numbers from major companies.

Indian market on the is on a song and is likely to continue the momentum. One should be wary of RBI meet and Reliance Industries number with more emphasis on the first one.

Midcaps are doing extremely well..We expect the momentum to continue. But here is the catch. As far as US Markets are concerned one should for 2 more days before jumping to a conclusion. Indian markets focus on RBI though 25 basis point cut is on expected lines it might create havoc in the market

Nifty breaks out on global positives

Nifty finally broke the resistance levels yesterday and is looking towards another landmark 5500 to be breached. After staying put for some time Indian markets started decoupling from the global markets in the last few weeks.

Realty majors, Oil & Gas along with Reliance should contribute to this rally. It is really tough given the situation for a break away rally but nothing is impossible given India's branding across the globe.

Midcaps especially stocks like Bhagawati Banquets are running way above fundamentals. Unless there is any acquisition news flow it is better to stay away from such counters. And avoid any SMS or email circulation about these small cap junk stocks

Bernanke's comments triggers a fall on W' Street

The Federal Reserve would take action if necessary to keep the economic recovery on track, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Wednesday, even as he asserted that he expects the expansion to continue.Bernanke and his Fed colleagues "recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain," he told the Senate banking committee. "We remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a context of price stability."

The reason for giving weightage for his comments being the pinion rider of the world's largest economy, it clearly shows the country is not out of woods and the outlook remains highly uncertain. Indian economy is doing good with decoupling from the western world alreay in process.

Midcaps are ruling the roast on the markets. Again we caution against all dummy stocks and operator driven counters.

Positive start on cards

Indian benchmark Indices are likely to gap up on the back of positive overseas cues. Gadget leader Apple declared street beating numbers after market closed in the US boosting Asian tech stocks.

Indian markets are on a very dangerous wicket with lack of volumes and the much needed push to crack the ranged trade in the last one week. Though midcaps are doing extremely well, it is time a sector takes leadership and we believe Oil & Gas along with Reliance might lead the rally in the next leg. We are not sure and infact certain the rally might get delayed for a month or two. Investors can start picking up stocks delivering good numbers slowly

Only Below 5320 Bears enter the market

Midcaps making merry, indices in no hurry

While midcaps stocks are enjoying their time on dalal street, Indices are in no rush to beat the previous highs. US markets on the other are looking very weak with the current quarter's numbers already discounted in the stock prices.

Indian indices outperformed the global markets and rightly so, given the strength in the macro economic environment. But investors should keep in mind that the current global correction might not give a major boost to our markets with a limtied downside.

RBI rate hike might act as another catalyst for bears. Keep an eye. We suggest not to go all out in F&O segment and to protect your positions

Nifty above 5420 is strong

Global markets see red again

Markets starting from Austrailia to Taiwan took a plunge on Monday morning thanks to a massive slide on the wall street last friday. We are right in predicting weaker economic US data and in believing the last week's rally as a mere technical pull back.

While Indian economy has legs, Indian markets might not see new highs given the double trouble in the global markets. More and more sectors are witnessing bullish run. SREI Infra and IFCI has broken out in charts from a medium term perspective. For now it is not advisable to venture into Indian markets given the global bleeding but adding on dips is defintiely not a bad idea

Nifty Gap down opens then small rise again fall and then ???

To know subcribe us

Another range trade on cards

Markets are likely to open subdued today. The volume strength in the market is missing.US Economic data continued to be mixed while quarterly numbers are stunning. One needs to see whether US Economy has legs with out sufficient job growth. After hours Goldman Sachs settled with SEC, federal claims that it misled investors in a subprime mortgage product as the housing market began to collapse.

Indian markets are going through a typical upmove but unconvincing volumes and no leadership sector makes us believe we might not be there yet for a break out. Realty is one sector that has steam. Unitech and DLF are looking positive on charts. Metals and Banking should be avoided in the short term. For an investor it appears to be a confusing period but medium term outlook remains bright for Indian economy

Skepticism about global recovery keeps bulls away from the market

Below 5350 Nifty weak

Indian shares are expected to trade lower today after a tepid performance from Wall Street on Wednesday, and signs of a slow down in Chinese economy.Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to trade in a band of 50 to 100 points with a downward bias.

The Chinese first-half GDP growth came in at 11.1%, slower than the 11.9% growth recorded in the first quarter. The CPI and PPI indices came in below expectations reaffirming the notion that things might slow down.

IT was the worst performing sector yesterday, while Consumer Goods stocks fared well. Metal stocks might be under pressure, thanks to the bad news from China.There were some fire works on Wednesday in the Midcap space even on a lacklustre day of trade. Gitanjali Gems, Agro Dutch Ind and Universal Cables are some of the stocks that look explosive for short term investors

No resistance zone !!

Nifty finally breaks out !!! The index is likely to go scott free till 5500 levels. One interesting point to note US majors Alcoa and Intel came out with excellent numbers while Indian biggies seems to have lost though it is too early to comment keeping in mind Infosys numbers.

In the next 3 weeks one can witness flurry of earnings activity. Realty is the latest entrant to the bull run. We want to bet on Mumbai realty companies especially Ackruti city and Orbit Corp as the stocks never got excited even when the Mumbai real estate market hit the top.

How long we continue to the upside ?

Last 10 days have been a feast to the bulls with low volume support. US earnings appears to beat the market. Chinese and Indian growth started slowing down. While chinese markets reacted to the same, Indian markets haven't despite of low IIP numbers. It is really tough to predict the market at this point of time but given the upbeat sentiment Nifty's move towards 5500 might be a cake walk

SGX Futures pointing taking over 5400 levels today

The much awaited 5400 levels for Nifty is under big threat from Bulls today. Alcoa, the global aluminium giant kicked off the earnings season in the US with better than expected numbers today. All eye are on Infy but the company might not surprise on both sides. We expect the results of Infosys to be a non-event.

The only drawbacks of the current rally are the volumes be it US or India. The upmoves or pull backs in case of US markets are backed with very low volumes, while the slides are accompanied with huge volumes. Though Dow Futures are pointing an upmove tomorrow we believe tomorrow's US market might set the near term trend. Coming to India it is quite heartening to see the markets trying to de-couple from the US markets. But IIP numbers were poor and tough to ignore. We strongly believe we might be in for a surprise despite of the positive talk about new highs.

One should stick to quality stocks and avoid speculation in case of any surprise

Is a break out imminent ??

Nifty is all set to move up but one more confirmation is required today. Volumes doesn't confirm a move but the levels might confirm the same. US markets pulled back from the lows last week to close up sharply.

We are still skeptical about global equities in the extreme short term. One should wait and watch before proceeding. We expect US markets to resume sliding again this week. Indian markets on the other hand will be keenly watching the quarterly numbers.

We spotted a pick where heavy insider buying coupled with excellent fundamentals. The stock is undoubtedly a doubler from the current levels

Nifty to attempt the sky again but all odds

favour the bears. US Markets moved up again to clock back to back gains but on poor volumes. This is a classic text book pattern where in the pull backs are happening during low volume days or viceversa.

Nifty might gear up to attack the much awaited 5350 band but we believe Nifty is against all odds. And remember in the next leg of down cycle we will outperform the global markets. Every other analyst on TV is bullish with midcap fever spreading across the board.

Negatives far outweigh positives in the short term and markets will look for a small reason to melt down. We are extremely bullish on Indian economy over the medium term but short term hurdles remain.

One should atleast build a portfolio keeping 3-4 years in mind in stocks which will return you 300-500 pct gains. For now midcaps rule but be aware of major speed breaker ahead

US Stocks jump, D-Street to follow

US Stocks as expected moved up, courtesy good earnings from Financial giant State Street. But underlying factor is Wall Street is highly oversold and looking for a reason to go up. D-Street is most likely to follow the Big brother but do not expect a big ticket rally.

Midcaps are having a ball on the street. Better economic situation, good quarterly numbers and risk apetite along with operator activity is driving the space. Avoid Realty, Banking and Auto atleast in the next 2-3 months.

We expect two big negatives to hit the street soon. One is the another round of correction on the wall street (expecting it next week) will trigger a massive sell off in Indian markets. And the second one will be from Indian Federal Reserve in the fourth week of this month in the form of a rate hike.

Though market anticipates that there will be a rate hike we expect a sharp sell off. Also we see a huge distribution happening on the street. But Nifty might try to attempt another shot at 5320-5350 levels. Global metals prices are extremely weak given the slow down in chinese demand.

We once again advice stick to quality midcap names and stay away from junkies

Major correction to unfold soon

US Markets managed to see green in the closing minutes of the trading session on wall street yesterday. Dow Jones after gaining as much as 140 points at
one point of time lost all the gains only to regain part of it in the last 10 mins of the session. We still stick to our 2-3 pct gain due for the US market after a severe beating. The economic readings continued to come in a weak fashion.

D-Street lagged its asian peers in terms of percentage gains yesterday and we see more under performance furing the next few days while rest of the
global markets recover. Remember Indian markets resisted the recent global equity fall. And in the next leg of global correction which we are expecting to happen some time next week Indian markets are likley to outperform the fall too.

Our periodic checks with brokerage houses reveal very limited retail participation in the cash segment. We see many junk stocks moving up in the last few days upmove. Markets though wary of the next round of RBI's rate hike might not take it easy this time. So all in all the next move seems to be inclined down. Like many other analysts we too respect the 5400 levels for Nifty above which we would be long on Indian equities. But the levels appear to be too tough for Nifty to cross over.

Indices likely to break the trading zone to the downside

US Markets took a break from the slide, courtesy holiday on account of Independance day. Global equities traded in a band given no economic cues across the world. Indian markets are likely to end the trading band soon.

Heading down before we inch up ??

Our answer is yes for many reasons. Despite of positive talk in media and global press we are afraid we might not be in a position to sustain the current braveheart like situation. We are still not a mature market to de-couple from the global slide. While we are not sure about the next 3-4 trading sessions where in the US might see a recovery of atleast 2-3 pct. But in the next leg of downside D-Street might outperform W-Street. So traders watch out for unexpected bump to the downside. For investors we believe this would give an enormous and infact a final oppurtunity to enter Indian equity markets for a long time to come.

RNRL - Investors burnt their fingers

Banking on the brand name RNRL shares, despite of being a shell company enjoyed market interest. The current deal between R-Power and RNRL is in the best interest of the ADAG group and least concern about the shareholders. This incident once again proves that investors should be extra catious in dealing with these shell companies no matter who the management is. Once bitten, twice shy. Among ADAG group companies we like R-Power and Reliance Media World (longer term).

Its one of those uninteresting times on D-Street but we expect bears to dance soon

Indices to move sideways as pessimism reigns

Stocks on Dalal Street are likely to open the week sideways with a negative bias, as uncertainties regarding the health of global economy continue to effect the investor sentiment.We expect the market to be lacklustre this week in line with the mood across the globe.

Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to trade in a band of 100 points for the day. Indian markets performed relatively better than their global peers in the past week. The Sensex has given up 1.76 percent for the week, while the Dow Jones index on Wall Street shed 4.5 percent for the week.It is worth noting that the Sensex was the best performer among the world’s 20 largest equity markets last quarter.

Banking stocks outperformed the rest of the pack on Friday with the sectoral index gaining 0.2 percent, while the Metals and Consumer Goods were among the worst performing sectors. losing more than 0.5 percent of their value. WIPRO and TCS were among the top gainers among the index stocks, while Sterlite Ind and Mahindra made to the top of the losers list.

A report this morning from Prudential Financial sees Indian stocks gaining 10 percent by the end of this year, extending the longest rally since 1979, as an unscheduled rate increase by the central bank won’t derail economic growth. The firm expects the rate hike to have a negative impact on the markets in the immediate short term,but demand from foreign investors might help the benchmark rebound in the second half of this year.

Among the Midcap stocks, the stock Monnet Ispat gained more than 16 percent after the sponge -iron maker agreed to sell 12.5 percent stake to Blackstone Group LP. The scrip closed at Rs 468. Nucleus Software, AMD Medplast and Persistent systems are other stocks that were among the high fliers on Friday.

W-Street pares loses, D-Street to trade in a range

Wall Street pared huge loss on thursday after a slew of wek economic reports hit the wire. We were expecting this from quite some time. US Markets are due for a 3-4 pct upmove only to go down later. We are expecting S&P to hit 950 levels which is a 6 pct down move from here.

Indian markets are hit by global economic jitters minus which we might have taken off. But given the high voltage drama on global bourses we might need to forget the word "break out" for this month. But the base is building up for a multi year bull run.

As mentioned in our earlier coloumns Power sector is showing immense strength and this is just the start. Airlines is one another dark horse sector and so is EPC space. We like few infrastructure companies too. But we would like to avoid Realty, Banking, IT, Auto, Metals atleast for some more time.

Oil & Gas, Retail textiles, Alternative Energy are likely to continue the bull run along with midcaps. Better to stay from buying Index options as Nifty is trading in a tight band in the last one week and looks to continue the same for some more time

Tricky global market conditions to weigh on D-Street

There is not much to rejoice from yesterday's rally on D-Street while the upmove definitely made a point that every downs(l)ide in the market is bought into. It is an extremely tricky global market situation where in the major indices are ready for a rocky ride after cracking through the support levels on the down side. We expect another 10 pct downside in the US Market atleast.

Given the condition it is advisable for a retail investor to only think about the longer term picture while investing in Indian equities. Short term the enviornment is not condusive for investing. Lot of midcap stories are generating interest in the investing community. Our checks with major brokerage houses revealed that despite the markets are buoyant, the retail participation in the cash segment is a reason to worry about while F&O segment is witnessing heavy volumes. While the midcap momentum suggests hectic operator activity there is no rush from the domestic retail inestor. This can be interpreted both ways

1. Domestic retail investors generally tend to catch the bus before the last one or two stops (+ve for the market)

2. Some times a domestic investor is smart enough and he sits out when in doubt and this can be considered one such situation.

We expect a massive rally to kick in August and it is time for one to focus on growth stories.

Entertainment stocks jumped on the reports that FDI in DTH space will be hiked to 74%. We feel this month should be the last oppurtunity for investors to accumulate Indian equities and it might be too early for the same. Watch out for some more downside in the first fortnight and pick your stocks.