Bears back on the battlefield

US Markets opened flat on friday only to end the day with extremely volatile moves. News of Spain's rating downgrade gave a thumbs down to the market. US Markets are closed today on account of Memorial day. Asian markets started the day in red though losses are limited to 0.5 pct

Indian markets are on a roll in the last 3 trading sessions with Nifty gaining as much as 260 points of 5 pct to trade at 5066. We believe Nifty will bump higher above 5100 levels. Metals pack lead the last two days rally with many domestic analysts feeling that the metal stocks are available for a bargain. One should remember that metal stocks reflect the global mood and the major part of the downfall is yet to come.

Euro woes will continue to haunt the markets in the next 2 months. Traders should time their trades to perfection, given extreme volatility and uncertain global economy. Realty participated in the last two days. But the picture for the sector is far from being rosy.

One should be extremely catious before jumping in the market. Wait for 5100-5150 level for Nifty to be breached before jumping in. Till then it is better to watch the show from a distance

Bears paused, D-Street to get the kicker from Wall Street

Wall Street spiked yesterday on china's comments about Euro. It is indeed a dead cat bounce from highly over sold terrirtories. Asian peers are doing well today morning. Indian markets yesterday closed up with Nifty closing near the "Max Pain" 5000. We were mentioning about Nifty 5000 closing from the last 3 days but thought it would be impossible to reach there.

One should be catious before buying on D-Street today as Indian markets has outperformed the rest of the globe in the last 2 days courtesy F&O expiry. Europe troubles ease at least for the time being but we are in for a correction which might unfold early next week.

Small investors are literally pani stuck given the market conditions. We are still not out the woods and as expected US data is looking weak. US revised GDP downwards which was a negative and ignored by markets yesterday. We expect the forth coming data to turn weaker further.

Avoid expensive and fancy sectors for now. We believe this time Nifty might not be able to hold 4800 if it attempts the level.

Triple witching day : A flat trade expected

Wall Street lost all the gains in the final hour of trade to end with losses, asian markets today are trading flat. Watching the tape of US Equities is giving a scary picture of things waiting to unfold in the next 1-2 months.

Yesterday's rebound in Nifty is very much in the expected lines. Today's F&O expiry is likely to close in a smoother fashion and we expect a less volatile flattish day. Options max pain is set at 5000 but it is highly unlikely that Nifty might close around that levels.

Nifty hitting lower highs and lower lows is a clear indication of the downward journey. We see an extremely bleak picture for the next 2 months. We are extremely bearish on the markets. Any rebound should be seen as a god's gift to exit the equity markets. This is not your regular correction phase. This is a crisis which will unfold in the next 2 months.

Bears will have the upper hand. Take a look at the support levels below

S&P bounces off support 2nd time in 2 weeks, D-Street looking for a positive open

US Markets bounced back off the support levels, especially S&P pulled back with high volumes to close the day in green. It started to be another nightmarish session on Wall Street only to end the day in peace. It is time for another pull back rally and here we go.

D-Street was crushed yesterday as if no tomorrow. Midcap unwinding is underway and we will see more and more midcaps join the slide. But for the time being it is time for a quick bounce back. With F&O expiry slated for tomorrrow we expect volatility to spike up but Nifty is likely to gain traction from these levels. 4800 appears to be a temporary support level.

Spain is added to the Euro woes kitty...We mentioned long back about PIIGS and things started coming true spooking investors. It is time to stay away and wait for markets consolidate. For a small investor these markets will be night marish.

F&O Expiry to dictate terms, global markets resume downward journey

Global equity markets plunged again on Tuesday with the fall starting from Wall Street on Monday. Indian markets with F&O expiry closing on Thursday will be interesting to watch for the next 2 days. While the option "Max Pain" is predicting Nifty close to 5000 levels by thursday, global cues are not saying so.

We are not comfortable with equity markets for the next 2-3 months. Though intermediate upswings are possible in this 2-3 month period, it is better to stay away from the markets and enter at lower levels. We do not buy Analyst comments that Indian markets are ready for an upmove.

Mr. Singh's comments that he is expecting inflation to come down to 5% might not have any impact on the markets. Ambani's truce failed to give a boost to the markets. One should understand the power of global crisis instead of slow.

Patience will definitely pay but by not holding to your stocks...Do not jump and invest that markets have already tanked. More pain in the coming days....Midcaps will shed more weight due to unwinding.

June should month to do some bottom fishing

Nifty Kisses the support only to bounce with vengeance

Nifty kissed the support level of 4850 on friday only to bounce back with a rigourous pull back. Early indicators point to a gap up open today. Big brothers reached a truce over the week end over the gas deal. This will definitely add as a catalyst for the bulls.

Asian markets are trading in the green early Monday morning on positive cues from Wall Street on friday. Remember this is another relief rally and this will might go on for the next 3 days. Also F&O expiry is slated for thursday. Markets will be highly volatile.

Maxpain for options decides the closing price of Nifty. We can stay away, avoid, sell on rallies this week. The crisis is bigger than the market expected. Expect Nifty to either go range bound or slide to 4400 in the next 2-3 months...

Midcaps will see night mares soon....Get out of the midcap space...Huge unwinding is yet to happen here.

Laila hits Andhra, Bears ready t o do Bhangra

The global bear story is exactly panning out as we have been writing in this column from the last 1 month. The only thing we were still waiting to see is the midcap story getting hit and we are still confident that the sell-off will spread to midcaps and then there goes a period of consolidation.

Wall Street was massacred yesterday with the mainline indices losing in th range of 3-4 pct each. Asian markets are trading inline with the US markets on Friday morning. sliding by 2-4 pct.

Our major support level for Nifty is very likely to be tested today and we expect a strong rebound today. Given the vigorous attack one needs to see whether 4800 level holds. Below 4800 we are afraid to write that it will be massive panic and no bounce in sight.

We were wrong as we were bearish from 3 to 4 months but one needs to have patience in these markets. We have always written markets are stretchy and sketchy. Also Indian markets including every TV channel or any website failed to talk about Soverign debt issues. We raised the same in April and mentioned we will be taking a bigger hit in May.

This is just a temporary but much needed setback (healthy correction) for Indian equities. Do not rush to buy if equities appear cheap as you will get a better price soon

Nifty breaks the support, eyeing 4800 levels

Global equity markets continued to tumble with yesterday's show extremely volatile on the wall street with Bears hitting the winning runs. Indian markets tanked big time yesterday and infact D-Street lost more than any other Asian market yesterday. At the time of writing asian markets are trading mixed.

We expect minor recovery in Indian markets today. With Nifty breaking the 200 DMA traders jumped to the other side of the boat going short on Nifty. Open Interest increased massively. Any small positive trigger during this period might trigger a mamouth rally but all odds favour bears for the time being. We expect 4800 to hold on at any cost. But given the vigourous bear attack one should even wait whether the support holds before jumping in.

Stay away from equities at least for the next fortnight. Midcap bloodbath is yet to begin. Visitors of this column might have witnessed our bearish take from the last one month. We have confidently written this time "Sell in May" will work. High beta stocks like Aban got a stick though the Oil spil is used as an excuse.

It is time to pool Mr.Cash and wait for the right oppurtunity

After a pause, the slide continues

US Markets lost all the opening gains only to close down with Dow losing 114 points. Asian markets started deep in the red today. While SGX Nifty Futures are no exception. At the time of writing SGX Nifty is down 80 points indicating another scary day in the Indian markets.

Euro is getting killed in the trading zone. And this is impacting the global economy with many fleeing to US Dollar as a safer instrument to park funds. Prices of commodities like Crude Oil and rest of the metal pack are falling like nine pins with the exception of Gold and Silver.

Indian economy we re-itereate has only one way to go and it is to the upside. But this temporary setback to the markets is just another huge buying oppurtunity.

How low we can go ??

Nifty moving down to 4850 looks inveitable in the next 30-45 days. Though 4950 acted as a big support level the last two times, the amount of short positions and global jitters might be enough to thrash the level of 4950.

If Nifty breaks 4800 then we are in for a bigger trouble we are expecting a huge sell off below 4800 which is tough to expect given the strength in the economy. One can start parking money in the market around 4800 levels.

But for now avoid Realty, Metals and especially junkie midcaps

Markets still jittery, Wall Street recovers from 180 point slide

Global Equitry Markets continued to stay on a jittery ground though majority of the markts recouped their losses on Monday. Wall Street closed flat recovering from a 180 point slide early in the morning. Dalal Street too closed above the much talked about 200-DMA. Interestingly the support around 4970-4980 which was tested twice this month continued to hold.

Euro continued to slide against global currencies, pulling global equities and commodities down. We expect Euro to stay low for the next 2-3 months. Huge short positions were built in Euro.

Coming to Indian economy there is no way except for Mr. Subba Rao to raise rates again as a measure to cool off the economy. Domestic spending is giving a major boost to Indian economy, helping to de-couple or minimize the global impact. We always said the new mantra for D-Street is domestic spending.

While major sectors like Infrastructure, Realty are still struggling, PSUs, Banks and IT sector took the cream of the rally in the last 13 months or so. Small Investors are in no two minds whether to invest or not in this tough market. But it is time to sit and corner some cash for investment in Indian Equities which offer unimaginable oppurtunity of growth in the coming 4-5 years. It is going to be a crazy and wild upmove once Europe dust settles and we are super bullish on Indian Equities. But we believe there is still time to accumulate

Midcaps ready to crash ????

Global equties are gearing up for another dreadful crash. While Asian markets are trading deep in the red, US & Europen futures continue to tumble. Singapore Nifty Futures are trading down 50 points.

We expect the markets to tumble this week too. While midcap story, which continued to be strong in the last 1 month despite of global meltdown will be hit the most in the next 1 week to 10 days. Mark these words.

Greece crisis is neglected by world markets till players switched positions. We mentioned many times to be extra catious and May will be the sell off month and here we go with a panic sell off.

It would be better for Individual investors to stay away from the markets. Bottompicking and cherrypicking are still not the right words to use in this market. Hang on and wait for the oppurtunity

Bears to call the shots. Nifty falters again at 5200 levels

Bears are back. But panic selling seen earlier might be missing this time. Nifty faltered again at 5200 levels. Support of 5136 is holding from a big fall.

US Markets sold of in the last 2 hours after managing to stay flat for majority part of the session. Retail numbers were blamed for the fall. It is indeed interesting to note from the last 5 months upmoves in the US Markets are followed by low volumes where as the downdrives are accomopanied with massive volumes.

Indian midcaps are staying afloat, courtesy liquidity flows. We clearly mentioned many times in this column that most of the feelers indicate major FIIs were short in Nifty this month but midcaps continue to survive. We expect gush of selling in midcaps soon.

Euro is looking weak every passing day and is likely to continue the same for few more months. Gold is making new highs while Crude Oil continues to drop. We believe worst is yet to come for equities and this time there will not be a storm but a smooth fall

Strong open on cards, Nifty to again meet Mr. Resistance (5200)

Indian markets are trading with extreme volatility. Yesterday is one such any trader wants to avoid unless he is on the right side. The trade was nothing short of a roller coaster. Stocks are likely to gap open to the upside on D-Street but one should clearly watch out for a Nifty level of 5200 for a break out to the upside on a closing basis.

It appears major FIIs went short in Nifty taking the feelers into consideration. The Euro aid is considered negative for Emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. As per their arguments stocks are expensive in the emerging markets.

Yesterday's IIP numbers were indeed disappointing. But one section of the analyst community argues that this will keep Mr. Subba Rao away from raising interest rates.

One should remember we are not out of woods and a trend reversal (if any) is expected today or tomorrow

Gold rises to record levels, D-Street to trade flat

Nifty above 5180 will fly others bear will rule

Yellow metal ruled the roast today closing record above $1,220 an ounce on the NYMEX. US Stocks traded flat despite of a global rout in equities. Euro uncertainity is propping up Gold to newer highs and we expect more and much more. We have a target of $2,000 in one year from now. Sounds over optimistic but it seems certain though.

RBI's move recently to purchase Gold was criticized by many but the country will be laughing to the bank in no time..

Concerns of Chinese tightening and Euro issues are still driving the markets crazy. British Hung parliament might even make UK debt situation even worse.

Equity market rally was lost in transit as global markets resumed the fall. We expect a mildly positive day today with Infrastructure Finance companies as well as fertilizer stocks are likely to do extremely well. Monsoon season is expected to be normal, much to the relief of the Fertilizer stocks which fo had a rough last year.

Markets are likely to be volatile...Speculators might be attempting to attract attention and dump stocks, One should be careful picking midcaps. Nifty 5200 appears tough nut to crack for the bulls

Consolidation, the name of the game

After clocking hefty gains across the board indices will try to consolidate the gains today but not with out a visit by Mr.Volatility. US Markets jumped, inline with global equity markets on the Euro deal. US Fed opened gates in a abnormal move, giving access to European banks the much needed liquidity.

Auto numbers yesterday continued to rule the roast a with highly impressive 39.7 pct growth, the best in the decade. One should focus on the low priced stocks in the domain like TVS Motors and Ashok Leyland. Both the stocks have already started attracting big money.

Fortis Healthcare, Asia’s biggest hospital chain, raised Rs 380 crore by selling shares to Singapore state-run investment company GIC Special Investments as part of its plans to raise Rs 3,000 crore for expansion. We are buyont on the healtcare space and recommended this stock to our subscribers as a multibagger at Rs 100 levels.

In another move which shows the power of Indian industry Sterlite Industries parent Vedanta Resources today announced it would buy UK-based Anglo American Plc’s zinc business for $1.34 billion (Rs 6,011 crore) in an all-cash deal. The acquisition substantially increases the Anil Agarwal-promoted company’s zinc and lead production capacity to 1,462 ktpa (kilo tonnes per annum) — boosting its production of lead and zinc by 37 per cent.

We expect major M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) deals in the next one year involving Indian buyers.

Real estate, Cement counters are still looking pale while Banking undoubtedly shares the honours along with the Auto and IT pack.

How do we rate yesterday's rally ?

Yesterday's rally is like stocks retreating from the abyss but we do not believe in this rally. Stocks are likely to gain for couple more days before taking a back step. Indian midcap space is moving dangerously with vested interests playing a major role. We find lot of junk companies moving around and what is more alarming is there are takers for these companies. Stay from midcap space till more correction hits D-Street.

Big day for bulls ahead, Dow Futures up 200 points

After a disastrous week equity markets are on a recovery mode today. Asian markets are trading up while US Stock futures sky rocketed, currently trading up 200 points. The major reason behind the upmove is the following news snippet:

"The European Central Bank confirmed late Sunday that it will buy government bonds in the secondary market to ensure debt and liquidity to those market segments which are dysfunctional"

We expect the markets to pull back in the next two days while down trend will resume in the later part of the week. Here is the catch.....Do not get into midcap counters and try to ride the frontline counters.

We expect Nifty to take a shot at 5200 levels only to fail later. One should keep in mind that the pull back is just a bounce after a dreadful week. Patni computers is showing immense strength in a other wise weak market. ET reports that

"The three Patni brothers, who co-founded and promoted the country’s sixth-largest software exporter, Patni Computer Systems, may get a premium for selling their stake to Japanese strategic investor NTT Data Corp, as compared to private equity firm General Atlantic"

Wall Street - Correction to crash

The Unprecedented happenned on wall street yesterday. Dow Jones plunged 1000 points (700 points to be specific in a matter of 15 mins) sending panic signals to investors. While the unusual activity is being reviewed by SEC and other regulatory agencies, one of our sources say the trade happenned in Procter & Gamble counter between 02:40 and 03: 00 PM EST. Nasdaq announced it will cancel all the trades on behalf of participants.

"Massacre" is the right word to use. The Tape was shaken with ferocity of the fall. Investors are dumbstuck. If the close on the wall street had been miserable we might have seen a Black Friday across the world today. Dow Jones ended the day with a loss of nearly 350 points pushing Austrialian stocks down. Australia lost 4 pct in the last 2 days.

Indian Markets - Resilient

Indian market performance is far better than the rest of the markets on the globe. But one should understand we might not be able to hold on for longer period. Indian markets are likely to tank today and any pull backs should be used to get out of equities. We were suggesting the same in this column from the past one month. We were bearish and continued to be bearish courtesy the soverign debt concerns. We failed to time the correction till last month but we figure the correction is round the corner and were right on spot this time

Sovereign Debt" , the new bear mantra

From Athens to Americas global equities continued to tumble, courtesy Sovereign debt troubles in the European region sending Euro to a 13 month low agains the US Dollar. Subject matter experts say this is just the begining of a massive debt crisis in europe and might be as dangerous as a Lehman crisis fall out.

Sovereign debt is the new buzzword doing round in the financial circles. We at Indiabears predicted too early that this crisis cannot be neglected and markets will only take notice after an event.

Thursday morning Asian markets continued to get smashed with Australian and Japanese Nikkei sinking deep in the red.

While D-Street took a beating too over the last 10 days, one should notice that the markets have not shed much blood yet. The front liners are causing the indices to lose weight while midcaps are sitting pretty. One reason for the same can be attributed to the stellar results . But not all midcaps fall in this category. We again advice the real blood shed in midcap space is yet to come. For time being stay away from the space if you are a trader.

We believe UK and US will also be pulled into this bear attack as both the countries soverign debt levels are alarming. Spain and Portugal are nearing a bigger crisis. India on the other hand might witness a fund slow down.

Any hike on the interest rate front in the US might spell death bell to global markets at this point of time. As we mentioned many times earlier "May is coming ,better be ready" is a clear indication of a classic correction. It is too early to figure out whether this leads to the continuation of the bear market which started in October 2007 from US market perepective. Indian markets are out of the bear phase but will likely react to the sentiment.

Sky is falling !! Euro debt fears hit global markets

The much ignored Euro debt crisis took its toll on the global asset classes. Stocks from Athens to Zimbabwe fell on massive debt concerns prevailing in Europe. We have been writing in this column about the same that markets cannot ignore debt concers for longer period and also mentioned May will be a dreadful month.

Wall Street was hit with a massive bear attack yesterday and the fear index popularly known as the VIX spiked up 26 pct . Volatility is here to stay and this time the trend clearly favours the bears.

Indian markets are no exception. When the funds sell (especially FII's ), they sell it hard. Fortunately though index is on the down trend we have not seen a bloodbath till date and one is round the corner. Investors should take this as an oppurtunity to get out of equities atleast trading positions. Operators are seen trying to get rid of the junk stocks.

Stay away from the markets and as mentioned yesterday to our subscribers below 5200 for Nifty the only support lies at 5050 on its journey to 4800, which can be considered rock solid suppport level.

Sell in May ??? Not right away !!!! D-Street to open positively

US Markets recouped most of their losses encountered on friday. Greece Aid and consumer spending pushed Indices to a big gain, taking the Monday's tally to 10 positive closings of the last 11 sessions on Monday .

Metals - Austrailian Impact : Sesa Goa was crushed yesterday, thanks to a 40 pct tax tax proposal by Australia. Global commodity prices tumbled on the news. We expect the weak sentiment to continue for some more time.

Chine Bubble : Investment Guru Marc Faber is predicting a chinese property bubble to burst in the next 6-9 months.

India PMI : HSBC Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell for the second consecutive month in April, as operating conditions improved at a weaker rate during the period. We term this as saturation period instead of a slow down. Economy is ready to take off but wait for a cool off...

Stay away from metals pack while midcaps still look hot. Let us see whether "Sell in May and go away" works this year !!!!

Greece bailed out, Bears to go all out !!!!

Trouble european county Greece got a soothing relief over the week end when IMF sanctioned a 145 billion dollar bail out along with the Euro Zone partners. Global markets are not interested in the news as the bail out number has increased the expectations and the soverign debt crisis spreading to Spain and Portugal. Watch out for negative news flow in the other two countries.

We were alerting the visitors of the website about Soverign Debt crisis in the European zone and Indian markets have not seen much of a impact till date. As situation gets worse D-Street will feel the pinch.

US Markets showed their back on Friday after Senate ordered for a criminal case against Goldie. US Economic data too is not strong enough to propel the bulls. One should agree that the economy has come up a long way, but there is still a longer leg to cover to finish off the race. Confining to local factors is not warranted in the current global situation.

Indian economy is running smooth and we do not see any internal impact on the economy. As the soverign crisis deepens, the story repeats itself - Slow down in fund inflows, increase in outflows etc etc. At the same time we do not expect Sensex to go down rapidly too.

Going long in equities at this point of time is not at all advisable, given the market conditions as the situation is tilted heavily towards bears...Midcap melt down is coming sooner than later. While long term investors should stick to their holdings, short term traders or swing traders should insure themselves from any downsides buying Nifty puts