Nifty levels

Intraday views for 18/06/10
NIFTY INTRADAY RES....5290....5320....5355....5​380.....5410

SUPPORTS....5265....5250...5230.​..5200...5170...5140

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BUY JET AIRWAYS IN CASH AROUND 515 SL 505 TGT 524-532

Markets likely to cool off

After a rapid climb over the last 10 days, equity markets across the globe are likely to cool off. Despite of negative home sales numbers the impact was minimal on Wall Street.

Rate hike checked the market rally in Indian markets yesterday. Nifty is trying to consolidate before the next move. While many predict an upmove we still believe the current rally as a head fake rally extended from oversold levels. The current pull back rally has very limited chances of getting converted into a full blown rally.

RBI might surprise the market with a rate hike this week end or some time in the next week. Inflation will keep the government on the edge.

Junk stocks are moving up again. Do not fall prey to operator games

Bullish Momentum to continue...

Weak US Inflation data stoked a rally in the US Markets yesterday and is likely to propel a rally in Asian marktes today including India.D-Street is likely to open up continuing the last 5 day winning streak today. Midcaps continued to spring in major surprise with ADAG stocks jumping all over the place with RNRL leading from the front, taking over the baton from Reliance Communications.Our bearish view on Nifty has taken a beating but we are still not comfortable given the current economic situation. Inflation is a major concern while Euro crisis is not over yet according to us.

We would wait for 5250 for Nifty on a closing basis before taking a bullish stance. Things are definitely uncertain still though many brokerage houses changed their stance suddenly. Keep a catious view on the market but as we always said a long term investor can continue to hold and add on any declines.

Nifty 5300 is what most of the analysts are pegging the resistance. Better safe than sorry.

Bulls look tired after a decent start to the week

Stocks on Dalal Street might look to consolidate after a good start to the week on Monday. We expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to give up 50 to 100 points today. The immediate support for Nifty is at 5180 and a breach would revive the downward trend in the near term.

U.S. stocks ended lower Monday, with the Dow industrials giving up a more than 120-point advance, after another downgrade of Greece's sovereign ratings offset hopes of recovery in Europe. The Dowjones Industrial average ended down by 0.2 percent after nearly gaining one percent during the day.

IT and metal sectors were in the limelight yesterday gaining nearly 2 percent for the day. Infosys was surprise gainer yesterday as the scrip gained more than 4 percent on FII buying in the counter. WIPRO, HCL Tech and Reliance Communications were other notable gainers in the Nifty Fifty stocks.

Meanwhile the Core Inflation numbers came in above analyst estimates came in above at 10.16% above the analyst expectations. The markets kind of ignored the bad news yesteday, but we believe that this would increase the pressure on RBI, which eventually could lead to rate hike by the RBI in late July. This might not bode well for the markets in the short run.

Balaji Telefilms and RNRL were among the top gainers in the midcap stocks space yesterday, with later witnessing huge volumes as was the case with most of the stocks with exposure to ADAG. Overall, a flat day with a downward bias is in the offing.

Head fake rally on cards

Suddenly things turned in favour of bulls. Atleast the press and US markets are trying to portray a brighter picture. Over the week end couple of regulators tried to pump bullish strength. Here are a few

1. Euro crisis may trigger more capital flows into India: RBI

Our Take : While there is absolutely no doubt that Indian market will lead the rally from the front, when the world is burning it is pre-mature to talk about inflows and that too when last month's data clearly show outflows from FIIs due to a strong dollar. Dollar strength is a major concern for emerging economies atleast in the short term when it comes to inflows.

2. Markets exaggerating euro zone risks: ECB policymakers

Our Take : That is a funny statement indeed. We believe markets are correct given the underlying macro and micro economic issues in many small European nations. Euro is likely to get even with US Dollar if the crisis continues. Watch out for unwinding of major economic issues in the EU soon.

Bottomline is when the world is burning no one will dare invest in equities. Coming to Indian economic picture Industrial numbers were stunning but bears have a cause here. RBI might raise rates before the july meet itself.

Infact RBI is in a catch-22 situation whether to raise rates or hold on and watch how the Euro crisis plays. While the first action will slow down growth, the second one will trigger massive inflation. Let us see how Mr.Subba Rao handles the situation,

We still believe 4750 will be tested on Nifty before any upmove. On the flip side we will go long with Nifty above 5250 levels

China & Euro boosts global equties

It is one of those massive squeeze rallies happening around the global equity markets. It started with Chinese exports jumping big time sidelining European woes and positive comments by Trichet (ECB cheif) on Euro boosted sentiments giving a thumbs up to bulls.

Nifty too is looking solid at current levels and is expected to see another 1 pct easily from the current levels. While many of our subscribers and visitors to this site are eager to find out whether this is the end of the correction which started in the first week of May. We stick to our earlier view and it is pre-mature to be upbeat on the current upmove.

Traders who buy on dips and short on the upmoves might have done well in the last fortnight. But we are in for a one side move soon and we still vote for a big down side else where. Indian economy will get a shot in the arm this year from most likely normal monsoon. Fertilizer related stocks continued to move up with United Phosphorous and Insecticides India moving up handsomely.

Midcaps are back and so are speculators. Watch out for stocks like Gitanjali Gems, IFCI, BRFL, Nagarjuna Constructions which are looking excellent on charts. Things are suddenly looking upbeat. Don't get pulled into the rally. Patience pays big time and take a break from markets if you are a small investor

Asian markets decoupling ???

While US markets tanked from highs of the day to the lows of the day in a matter of 30 mins, Asian markets appear to be not too much concerned about Euro crisis for now. FTSE future are down 1.5 pct while Wall Street closed down with Dow losing 40 points after moving up 125 points at one time.

US Market appears to be on the verge of a major break down. S&P below 1045 which is a 10 point downside move from current levels will move to 980 and then 950 levels. Bernanke in his testimony did sound upbeat but the confidence is lacking and market figured it out.

Volatility is at its best during the later part of the day. Nifty got into the habit getting smacked from the highs of the day. It is better to go on a vacation from the markets instead of jumping the gun.

Midcaps showed good interest yesterday with MNC stocks like KPIT Cummins, Abbot India spiking up. Aviation stocks are doing rounds among broking circles especially after Goldie converted warrants in Spice Jet, taking its stake to 6 pct in the company. We believe the stock is a multibagger in the making in the next 3-4 years