Nifty tanked yesterday courtesy a freak trade in Reliance and thanks to the ongoing credit crisis happening in the Europe. US Markets after trading in a extremely volatile fashion ended the day in the red with a sharp sell off in the last half hour.
Asian markets have started looking like as if they have decoupled from the advanced markets, but one should remember liquidity concerns are not country specific. And thanks to the summer period, which traditionally is known for tight liquidity we might see Nifty tank to 4650. We were extremely bearish from the last 2 months and here we go with what we mean.
We advised our subscribers to buy Nifty last wednesday and thursday and again mentioned this week we will see a smashing run from the bear cartel. Coming to economy, GDP, Monsoons one will be wondering why the markets fall despite of excellent conditions prevailing. We cannot defy Mr.Market and markets try to get an insight into few issues far before any retail investor gets a clue about it. This happenned during sub-prime and likely to repeat now. But as many expect we do not see this crisis to impact India in a major way. Panic is yet to be seen in Indian equities..
We are waiting for panic to set in midcaps to add few multibaggers.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Monday, May 31, 2010
Bears back on the battlefield
US Markets opened flat on friday only to end the day with extremely volatile moves. News of Spain's rating downgrade gave a thumbs down to the market. US Markets are closed today on account of Memorial day. Asian markets started the day in red though losses are limited to 0.5 pct
Indian markets are on a roll in the last 3 trading sessions with Nifty gaining as much as 260 points of 5 pct to trade at 5066. We believe Nifty will bump higher above 5100 levels. Metals pack lead the last two days rally with many domestic analysts feeling that the metal stocks are available for a bargain. One should remember that metal stocks reflect the global mood and the major part of the downfall is yet to come.
Euro woes will continue to haunt the markets in the next 2 months. Traders should time their trades to perfection, given extreme volatility and uncertain global economy. Realty participated in the last two days. But the picture for the sector is far from being rosy.
One should be extremely catious before jumping in the market. Wait for 5100-5150 level for Nifty to be breached before jumping in. Till then it is better to watch the show from a distance
Indian markets are on a roll in the last 3 trading sessions with Nifty gaining as much as 260 points of 5 pct to trade at 5066. We believe Nifty will bump higher above 5100 levels. Metals pack lead the last two days rally with many domestic analysts feeling that the metal stocks are available for a bargain. One should remember that metal stocks reflect the global mood and the major part of the downfall is yet to come.
Euro woes will continue to haunt the markets in the next 2 months. Traders should time their trades to perfection, given extreme volatility and uncertain global economy. Realty participated in the last two days. But the picture for the sector is far from being rosy.
One should be extremely catious before jumping in the market. Wait for 5100-5150 level for Nifty to be breached before jumping in. Till then it is better to watch the show from a distance
Friday, May 28, 2010
Bears paused, D-Street to get the kicker from Wall Street
Wall Street spiked yesterday on china's comments about Euro. It is indeed a dead cat bounce from highly over sold terrirtories. Asian peers are doing well today morning. Indian markets yesterday closed up with Nifty closing near the "Max Pain" 5000. We were mentioning about Nifty 5000 closing from the last 3 days but thought it would be impossible to reach there.
One should be catious before buying on D-Street today as Indian markets has outperformed the rest of the globe in the last 2 days courtesy F&O expiry. Europe troubles ease at least for the time being but we are in for a correction which might unfold early next week.
Small investors are literally pani stuck given the market conditions. We are still not out the woods and as expected US data is looking weak. US revised GDP downwards which was a negative and ignored by markets yesterday. We expect the forth coming data to turn weaker further.
Avoid expensive and fancy sectors for now. We believe this time Nifty might not be able to hold 4800 if it attempts the level.
One should be catious before buying on D-Street today as Indian markets has outperformed the rest of the globe in the last 2 days courtesy F&O expiry. Europe troubles ease at least for the time being but we are in for a correction which might unfold early next week.
Small investors are literally pani stuck given the market conditions. We are still not out the woods and as expected US data is looking weak. US revised GDP downwards which was a negative and ignored by markets yesterday. We expect the forth coming data to turn weaker further.
Avoid expensive and fancy sectors for now. We believe this time Nifty might not be able to hold 4800 if it attempts the level.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Triple witching day : A flat trade expected
Wall Street lost all the gains in the final hour of trade to end with losses, asian markets today are trading flat. Watching the tape of US Equities is giving a scary picture of things waiting to unfold in the next 1-2 months.
Yesterday's rebound in Nifty is very much in the expected lines. Today's F&O expiry is likely to close in a smoother fashion and we expect a less volatile flattish day. Options max pain is set at 5000 but it is highly unlikely that Nifty might close around that levels.
Nifty hitting lower highs and lower lows is a clear indication of the downward journey. We see an extremely bleak picture for the next 2 months. We are extremely bearish on the markets. Any rebound should be seen as a god's gift to exit the equity markets. This is not your regular correction phase. This is a crisis which will unfold in the next 2 months.
Bears will have the upper hand. Take a look at the support levels below
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
S&P bounces off support 2nd time in 2 weeks, D-Street looking for a positive open
US Markets bounced back off the support levels, especially S&P pulled back with high volumes to close the day in green. It started to be another nightmarish session on Wall Street only to end the day in peace. It is time for another pull back rally and here we go.
D-Street was crushed yesterday as if no tomorrow. Midcap unwinding is underway and we will see more and more midcaps join the slide. But for the time being it is time for a quick bounce back. With F&O expiry slated for tomorrrow we expect volatility to spike up but Nifty is likely to gain traction from these levels. 4800 appears to be a temporary support level.
Spain is added to the Euro woes kitty...We mentioned long back about PIIGS and things started coming true spooking investors. It is time to stay away and wait for markets consolidate. For a small investor these markets will be night marish.
D-Street was crushed yesterday as if no tomorrow. Midcap unwinding is underway and we will see more and more midcaps join the slide. But for the time being it is time for a quick bounce back. With F&O expiry slated for tomorrrow we expect volatility to spike up but Nifty is likely to gain traction from these levels. 4800 appears to be a temporary support level.
Spain is added to the Euro woes kitty...We mentioned long back about PIIGS and things started coming true spooking investors. It is time to stay away and wait for markets consolidate. For a small investor these markets will be night marish.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
F&O Expiry to dictate terms, global markets resume downward journey
Global equity markets plunged again on Tuesday with the fall starting from Wall Street on Monday. Indian markets with F&O expiry closing on Thursday will be interesting to watch for the next 2 days. While the option "Max Pain" is predicting Nifty close to 5000 levels by thursday, global cues are not saying so.
We are not comfortable with equity markets for the next 2-3 months. Though intermediate upswings are possible in this 2-3 month period, it is better to stay away from the markets and enter at lower levels. We do not buy Analyst comments that Indian markets are ready for an upmove.
Mr. Singh's comments that he is expecting inflation to come down to 5% might not have any impact on the markets. Ambani's truce failed to give a boost to the markets. One should understand the power of global crisis instead of slow.
Patience will definitely pay but by not holding to your stocks...Do not jump and invest that markets have already tanked. More pain in the coming days....Midcaps will shed more weight due to unwinding.
June should month to do some bottom fishing
We are not comfortable with equity markets for the next 2-3 months. Though intermediate upswings are possible in this 2-3 month period, it is better to stay away from the markets and enter at lower levels. We do not buy Analyst comments that Indian markets are ready for an upmove.
Mr. Singh's comments that he is expecting inflation to come down to 5% might not have any impact on the markets. Ambani's truce failed to give a boost to the markets. One should understand the power of global crisis instead of slow.
Patience will definitely pay but by not holding to your stocks...Do not jump and invest that markets have already tanked. More pain in the coming days....Midcaps will shed more weight due to unwinding.
June should month to do some bottom fishing
Monday, May 24, 2010
Nifty Kisses the support only to bounce with vengeance
Nifty kissed the support level of 4850 on friday only to bounce back with a rigourous pull back. Early indicators point to a gap up open today. Big brothers reached a truce over the week end over the gas deal. This will definitely add as a catalyst for the bulls.
Asian markets are trading in the green early Monday morning on positive cues from Wall Street on friday. Remember this is another relief rally and this will might go on for the next 3 days. Also F&O expiry is slated for thursday. Markets will be highly volatile.
Maxpain for options decides the closing price of Nifty. We can stay away, avoid, sell on rallies this week. The crisis is bigger than the market expected. Expect Nifty to either go range bound or slide to 4400 in the next 2-3 months...
Midcaps will see night mares soon....Get out of the midcap space...Huge unwinding is yet to happen here.
Asian markets are trading in the green early Monday morning on positive cues from Wall Street on friday. Remember this is another relief rally and this will might go on for the next 3 days. Also F&O expiry is slated for thursday. Markets will be highly volatile.
Maxpain for options decides the closing price of Nifty. We can stay away, avoid, sell on rallies this week. The crisis is bigger than the market expected. Expect Nifty to either go range bound or slide to 4400 in the next 2-3 months...
Midcaps will see night mares soon....Get out of the midcap space...Huge unwinding is yet to happen here.
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