Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Sky is falling !! Euro debt fears hit global markets

The much ignored Euro debt crisis took its toll on the global asset classes. Stocks from Athens to Zimbabwe fell on massive debt concerns prevailing in Europe. We have been writing in this column about the same that markets cannot ignore debt concers for longer period and also mentioned May will be a dreadful month.

Wall Street was hit with a massive bear attack yesterday and the fear index popularly known as the VIX spiked up 26 pct . Volatility is here to stay and this time the trend clearly favours the bears.

Indian markets are no exception. When the funds sell (especially FII's ), they sell it hard. Fortunately though index is on the down trend we have not seen a bloodbath till date and one is round the corner. Investors should take this as an oppurtunity to get out of equities atleast trading positions. Operators are seen trying to get rid of the junk stocks.

Stay away from the markets and as mentioned yesterday to our subscribers below 5200 for Nifty the only support lies at 5050 on its journey to 4800, which can be considered rock solid suppport level.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Sell in May ??? Not right away !!!! D-Street to open positively

US Markets recouped most of their losses encountered on friday. Greece Aid and consumer spending pushed Indices to a big gain, taking the Monday's tally to 10 positive closings of the last 11 sessions on Monday .

Metals - Austrailian Impact : Sesa Goa was crushed yesterday, thanks to a 40 pct tax tax proposal by Australia. Global commodity prices tumbled on the news. We expect the weak sentiment to continue for some more time.

Chine Bubble : Investment Guru Marc Faber is predicting a chinese property bubble to burst in the next 6-9 months.

India PMI : HSBC Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell for the second consecutive month in April, as operating conditions improved at a weaker rate during the period. We term this as saturation period instead of a slow down. Economy is ready to take off but wait for a cool off...

Stay away from metals pack while midcaps still look hot. Let us see whether "Sell in May and go away" works this year !!!!

Monday, May 3, 2010

Greece bailed out, Bears to go all out !!!!

Trouble european county Greece got a soothing relief over the week end when IMF sanctioned a 145 billion dollar bail out along with the Euro Zone partners. Global markets are not interested in the news as the bail out number has increased the expectations and the soverign debt crisis spreading to Spain and Portugal. Watch out for negative news flow in the other two countries.

We were alerting the visitors of the website about Soverign Debt crisis in the European zone and Indian markets have not seen much of a impact till date. As situation gets worse D-Street will feel the pinch.

US Markets showed their back on Friday after Senate ordered for a criminal case against Goldie. US Economic data too is not strong enough to propel the bulls. One should agree that the economy has come up a long way, but there is still a longer leg to cover to finish off the race. Confining to local factors is not warranted in the current global situation.

Indian economy is running smooth and we do not see any internal impact on the economy. As the soverign crisis deepens, the story repeats itself - Slow down in fund inflows, increase in outflows etc etc. At the same time we do not expect Sensex to go down rapidly too.

Going long in equities at this point of time is not at all advisable, given the market conditions as the situation is tilted heavily towards bears...Midcap melt down is coming sooner than later. While long term investors should stick to their holdings, short term traders or swing traders should insure themselves from any downsides buying Nifty puts

Friday, April 30, 2010

Markets to take off in the green zone

Markets will be opening in the positive zone today but watch out for the later session. Markets are trying to shrugg off the bad news and take off on the good news. It is clearly evident from the last 4 months market movement.

May is here and traditional data shows there will huge sell-offs this month. Last year there was a massive rally contradicting the data. Few midcap results have been stunning in India.

Patni reported a 100% rise in net profit to Rs 157 crore for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010, on improved demand for outsourcing services as well as foreign currency gains. IT is definitely a sector to watch especially the second rung pack but one should keep an eye on the forex markets.

Among other sectors Autos are ruling the roast along with Auto ancillaries, Real estate is yet to pick except for bits and pieces of the country. Commodities are seen stretching from last year's pull back. We expect a bigger set back here.

Today's rally might lure many into the bull side brushing off the wednesday's slide, but this might be one trap you would want to miss out on. After all May is coming and that too after a massive pull back

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Volatility to rule, a flat close expected with positive bias

After the massacre on D-Street, bulls might try to recover some of the losses. US Markets closed in the green on Fed comments. In an interesting M&A across the Atlantic IT giant Hewlett Packard acquired smart phone manufacturer Palm Inc.

While European crisis is a reason for the market to correct, one should closely watch the developments in the continent. Spain's rating was cut by S&P yesterday and Soverign debts might just be another leg of crisis.

While US is relatively unimpacted till date, there might be surprises on the road as we move ahead. One should keep in mind the alarming debt levels of US & UK too.

Indian economy is on a revival path that too at a faster pace thanks to domestic spending. The economy is unlikely to take a severe blow irrespective of the crisis. But the impact of global equity meltdown might hit our markets sharply, providing us with an enormous oppurtunity for the medium term.

For not it is worth to the watch the game from the Balcony instead of getting into the ring

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Highly Volatile Session

Trade between levels Nifty below 5200 weakness start , NIfty opens near 5250 levels one can see small rebound , 5327 levels above strong only

15:23:26) STBT: BANKNIFTY Sell@ 9770 Target:9700 sl:9810

15:23:00) STBT: RIL Sell @ 1063 Target:1048 sl:1074

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

"The Stretch" continues, another boring day on cards

Majority Indian retail investors, like any other global equity investors were caught by surprise looking at the ferocity of the current rally. Many are waiting are the sidelines while few jumped in. A correction at this juncture will not only be considered as a life time oppurtunity but also it surely checks the health of the D-Street.

Punters and speculators are all over the street and SMS continue to flood in with messages like "No Questions. No Answers. Just buy this stock". Lot of
pump and dump schemes are running successfully. Don't get caught in the traps. While trading definitely might result in quick bucks. Getting in a illiquid stock might land one in trouble of getting stuck for years.

Indian economy is undoubtedly recovered extremely quick and fast enough but sustaining the growth for a longer period is what should be the major task of the
government. We witnessed a gust of foreign funds which created excess liquidity in the system and still not sucked in by RBI measures. Food inflation is still
at alarming levels.

Stocks to watch today : Rain Commodities, Mic Electronics, NIIT Technologies for 3-5 pct gains