Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dow scores double ton, Indian smallcaps on the run

Indian markets - The bull is back ?

Yesterday's buying frenzy is likely to continue today also especially in the midcap and smallcap space. Indices will gap up during the initial trades only to cool-off and trade in a band. The action will be shifted to the speculative counters. We do not expect any negative fireworks today also. But at the same time gains will be muted.

This upmove is an oppurtunity for investors and traders to trim their positions. Underlying stregth of the global economy is very weak except for few of the emerging economies like India, China and Brazil

Fortis Healthcare Ltd. is planning to list its shares on Singapore stock exchange and the shares of its pathology arm, Super Religare Laboratories, in India, accoerding to the chairman of the company Malvinder Singh.

Reliance Industries Ltd., through its investment arm,has picked up an additional 0.68% in EIH Ltd on August 31 through a single offmarket deal, pushing it close to the open offer threshold.

State-owned National Aluminium Company Ltd. today said it was considering selling stake in its $3.9-billion (over Rs 18,000 crore) aluminium project in Indonesia in lieu of acquiring equity in coal mines in the island country. - BS

State-owned Indian Bank plans to sell assets worth Rs 900 crore to an asset reconstruction company (ARC).

AstraZeneca Laboratories AB, the London-headquartered pharma giant, is set to ink a deal with Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. for supply of generic finasteride, which is used in the treatment of prostate issues and male pattern baldness.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. bought Diligenta, a Unisys insurance unit and along with it picked up a £250m deal


Clutch Auto : Stock in top gear

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Finally, green ticks are coming

Dalal Street will open to positive global cues today and is likely to trade up for the entire session. We expect markets to shake out one more time before going down. From an investor perspective sitting near the fence and watching the game is the best strategy.

Q1 GDP numbers failed to cheer the investor crowd as they appeared to be on the expected lines. Expect midcap and smallcap stocks to outperform the indices today.

DStreet market analyst Venkata Srikanth says "We advise our clients to press the 'Cashout' button when ever they get a chance in the intermediate upmoves. We expect the market to undergo a severe correction in September

Stocks in news today : Kingfisher Air, NMDC, Natco Pharma

Kolkatta based Uttam Galva Steels Ltd. which was in limielight last year when Mittal acquired 50 pct stake in the company.

From the last one year stock was trading in a narrow band of Rs 100 - Rs 140. The stock showed great strength in yesterday's shaky market. While it is too early to come to a conclusion about a medium term bull trend, one should clearly wait and watch for Rs 140 levels to be taken off with volumes.

A two times close above Rs 140 level will place this stock in the bull zone.
One Year - Weekly chart of Uttam Galva

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Bearish clouds cover Dalal Street

US Markets resumed the slide yesterday after one day of pull back rally on Friday despite economic data falling in line with expectations. Indian market strength is weak, presumed from the last 2 sessions.

Reliance grabs EIH stake

Reliance Industries Ltd. paid Rs 1,021 crore, which is a 22 per cent premium on the company’s current market price of Rs 151 a share, valuing EIH at Rs 7,200 crore. RIL bought 14.2% stake from EIH Ltd. promoter P R S Oberoi and two other promoter entities, Oberoi Hotels Pvt Ltd and Aravali Polymers LLP. Reliance will not participate in the management activities and is treating this investment as a diversifying act.

Hotel & Entertainment stocks are likely to witness strong action in today's trade following this news.

Q1 GDP

The official GDP, a measure of a country's overall official economic output, figures for first fiscal quarter ended June will be released on today. While economists expect 8.6% to 9.2 % growth rate for the Q1 ending June, we at DStreet believe consolidation in economic growth will be witnessed in the coming quarters.

Market momentum will be impacted by Q1 GDP numbers.

Lackluster trading

Markets lack conviction and rightly so the retail investor participation is at a low. We believe this time the retail investor is correct in his own terms and any decent correction will see him taking a plunge into the market.

Lot of cash on sidelines will provide a cushion to the slide in the market. We are in for a long term bull market but yes not with out a meaningful correction

Monday, August 30, 2010

Asia Bulls on a honeymoon,Indian stocks to gap up

Japanese benchmark index Nikkei spiked up considerably today on the back of short covering and BOJ meet. Japanese currency Yen is on a song in the last few weeks, hitting the country's exporters hard. BOJ(Bank of Japan) is most likely to take measures to curb the currency's dream run.

Dalal Street to gap up

D-Street is set to open higher today on the back of positive global cues. US Markets closed with a good gain on Friday and today Asian opens strong enough for Dalal Street bulls to prepare for a decent open.

Here is the catch while many of the global markets are in the midst of a correction, India just started the same. While for today's trade we are cautiously optimistic and bearish for the coming weeks. September might turn out deadly for Indian markets for various reasons.

Analysts expect India's GDP to top out for Apr-June quarter, we at DStreet agree on the same. Indian economy will go soft for next couple of quarters. But softening economy is definitely a good sign after a year and half period's dramatic rise. The softening economy will not deter foreign investments and in fact we believe every major sector in India will get re-rated in the next one year as we gear up for a multi-year bull run but not with out another correction creating confusion among investors

Stocks that are likely to witness action on Monday morning

DNA reports that DB Realty Ltd. is in talks with private equity firms for selling 20% stake in its Bandra Government Colony project

Sesa Goa Ltd. is planning to diversify into steelmaking with an investment of Rs 6,000-9,000 crore, in Orissa and Jharkand - BS

Public sector mining firms NMDC Ltd and Coal India are forming a joint venture with West Bengal Mineral Development and Trading Company to acquire one of the largest coal blocks in the country having reserves of around 19 billion tonnes - ET

Tech Mahindra Ltd. CEO Sanjay Kalra has resigned from the firm after spending around six years in its management.

Jay Shree Tea & Inds. Ltd. (JTIL), a BK Birla Group company, is eyeing tea estates in Rwanda.

PSU Oil India Ltd (OIL) is likely to form a joint venture (JV) with a US-based shale gas company to acquire shale gas assets globally, a top official said


Many stock specific stories are planted in the media and investors are advised to check the depth of fundamentals before taking a stab. We expect markets to gap up and lose some of its gains but close in the green today.

Read : 5 Notable stocks that resisted Friday's carnage

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Kamat Hotels (India) Ltd.
DB Realty Ltd.
Spice Mobility Ltd.
Aarti Industries Ltd.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Stocks on Wall Street tumble again, Dow loses 658 points in 11 sessions

Dalal Street open might open marginally in the red on negative cues from the overseas markets.

Global Market - Snapshot

US stocks tumbled Thursday, with the Dow index closing below the sensitive 10,000 level for the first time in nearly two months, as traders braced for a sharp revision of US economic growth. Medium term outlook remains bearish according to our US based analyst Satish Bhogadi.

Nikkei, the Japanese benchmark index is trading down 1 pct today at 8823 levels, while Australian Index shaved off 0.29 pct.

New F&O series - New hopes

September's series will kick in with out much fan fare. We do expect fireworks to the downside in the markets next month. For now we believe Indian markets are decently valued and only fresh inflows can change the valuations. Indian markets trade near to 18X forward earnings and we will see a multiple of 23-25 in the coming years. Domestic consumption matra is getting stronger and longer and that should be considered as of the major de-coupling theory for Indian market from rest of the globe.

For today expect few midcaps and smallcaps to make some noise while largecaps extend their vacation

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Nifty eyes 5500 levels, global metal stocks weak

Indian markets will go through a volatile session today as F&O expiry is likely to weigh on traders.

Global Markets

US Market fared better on wednesday despite of weak durable goods orders. Asian markets started flat today with Japenese market slipping into red after Yen made another move towards the highs. Austrailia stocks are trading flat with mining stocks trading weak.

Indian Markets - Expiry hangover

F&O expiry is always tricky and with Nifty hovering between 5400 and 5500 levels it is a tough day ahead. Ideally Nifty is expected to close near to the strike price on the last day causing max pain to traders. Metals, realty and auto pushed the markets lower yesterday. We expect realty sector to show some resilience today after back to back loses.

Speculative stocks - Hop on

Investors should be careful with stocks like Prakash Steelage, Usha Martin Education. While many of us have seen the new listing movies lot of times, it is ideal to sit back and watch the show instead of participating.

DStreet market analyst Venkata Srikanth says "We still believe markets have some more steam left before the carnage. We expect underperforming sectors like Hotels, Power to participate in the midcap rally. From an investor perspective we are advicing our clients to wait till September for a better entry point

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

US Markets slide, D-Street gear up for selling tide

US Markets extended their nightmarish run after pending Home sales dropped a record 27.2% in July.

Global news

Japanese currency Yen hit a 15-month high against the Greenback (USD) on investors shunning equities and commodities. Japanese central bank might intervene soon. In another interesting development which might ignite memories of recent Euro crisis, S&P downgraded Ireland's rating to 'AA-'. Global economy along with the equity markets face tough times ahead

How long will India be resilient ?

Indian economy fortunately was driven by local factors along with FII inflows. While India has been the hottest destination for FIIs in the last 18 months, domestic consumption story might keep Indian market alive. But there are many ifs and buts attached to the market upmove. If global markets continue to slide and India stays on the sidelines there is a fear that citing cheaper valuations else where FIIs might exit Indian markets in favour of better returns.

With F&O expiry slated for tomorrow we do not expect a massive downside to the market. Having said that we are confident of a quick but major correction unwinding sometime next month.