Nifty finally breaks out !!! The index is likely to go scott free till 5500 levels. One interesting point to note US majors Alcoa and Intel came out with excellent numbers while Indian biggies seems to have lost though it is too early to comment keeping in mind Infosys numbers.
In the next 3 weeks one can witness flurry of earnings activity. Realty is the latest entrant to the bull run. We want to bet on Mumbai realty companies especially Ackruti city and Orbit Corp as the stocks never got excited even when the Mumbai real estate market hit the top.
How long we continue to the upside ?
Last 10 days have been a feast to the bulls with low volume support. US earnings appears to beat the market. Chinese and Indian growth started slowing down. While chinese markets reacted to the same, Indian markets haven't despite of low IIP numbers. It is really tough to predict the market at this point of time but given the upbeat sentiment Nifty's move towards 5500 might be a cake walk
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
SGX Futures pointing taking over 5400 levels today
The much awaited 5400 levels for Nifty is under big threat from Bulls today. Alcoa, the global aluminium giant kicked off the earnings season in the US with better than expected numbers today. All eye are on Infy but the company might not surprise on both sides. We expect the results of Infosys to be a non-event.
The only drawbacks of the current rally are the volumes be it US or India. The upmoves or pull backs in case of US markets are backed with very low volumes, while the slides are accompanied with huge volumes. Though Dow Futures are pointing an upmove tomorrow we believe tomorrow's US market might set the near term trend. Coming to India it is quite heartening to see the markets trying to de-couple from the US markets. But IIP numbers were poor and tough to ignore. We strongly believe we might be in for a surprise despite of the positive talk about new highs.
One should stick to quality stocks and avoid speculation in case of any surprise
The only drawbacks of the current rally are the volumes be it US or India. The upmoves or pull backs in case of US markets are backed with very low volumes, while the slides are accompanied with huge volumes. Though Dow Futures are pointing an upmove tomorrow we believe tomorrow's US market might set the near term trend. Coming to India it is quite heartening to see the markets trying to de-couple from the US markets. But IIP numbers were poor and tough to ignore. We strongly believe we might be in for a surprise despite of the positive talk about new highs.
One should stick to quality stocks and avoid speculation in case of any surprise
Monday, July 12, 2010
Is a break out imminent ??
Nifty is all set to move up but one more confirmation is required today. Volumes doesn't confirm a move but the levels might confirm the same. US markets pulled back from the lows last week to close up sharply.
We are still skeptical about global equities in the extreme short term. One should wait and watch before proceeding. We expect US markets to resume sliding again this week. Indian markets on the other hand will be keenly watching the quarterly numbers.
We spotted a pick where heavy insider buying coupled with excellent fundamentals. The stock is undoubtedly a doubler from the current levels
We are still skeptical about global equities in the extreme short term. One should wait and watch before proceeding. We expect US markets to resume sliding again this week. Indian markets on the other hand will be keenly watching the quarterly numbers.
We spotted a pick where heavy insider buying coupled with excellent fundamentals. The stock is undoubtedly a doubler from the current levels
Friday, July 9, 2010
Nifty to attempt the sky again but all odds
favour the bears. US Markets moved up again to clock back to back gains but on poor volumes. This is a classic text book pattern where in the pull backs are happening during low volume days or viceversa.
Nifty might gear up to attack the much awaited 5350 band but we believe Nifty is against all odds. And remember in the next leg of down cycle we will outperform the global markets. Every other analyst on TV is bullish with midcap fever spreading across the board.
Negatives far outweigh positives in the short term and markets will look for a small reason to melt down. We are extremely bullish on Indian economy over the medium term but short term hurdles remain.
One should atleast build a portfolio keeping 3-4 years in mind in stocks which will return you 300-500 pct gains. For now midcaps rule but be aware of major speed breaker ahead
Nifty might gear up to attack the much awaited 5350 band but we believe Nifty is against all odds. And remember in the next leg of down cycle we will outperform the global markets. Every other analyst on TV is bullish with midcap fever spreading across the board.
Negatives far outweigh positives in the short term and markets will look for a small reason to melt down. We are extremely bullish on Indian economy over the medium term but short term hurdles remain.
One should atleast build a portfolio keeping 3-4 years in mind in stocks which will return you 300-500 pct gains. For now midcaps rule but be aware of major speed breaker ahead
Thursday, July 8, 2010
US Stocks jump, D-Street to follow
US Stocks as expected moved up, courtesy good earnings from Financial giant State Street. But underlying factor is Wall Street is highly oversold and looking for a reason to go up. D-Street is most likely to follow the Big brother but do not expect a big ticket rally.
Midcaps are having a ball on the street. Better economic situation, good quarterly numbers and risk apetite along with operator activity is driving the space. Avoid Realty, Banking and Auto atleast in the next 2-3 months.
We expect two big negatives to hit the street soon. One is the another round of correction on the wall street (expecting it next week) will trigger a massive sell off in Indian markets. And the second one will be from Indian Federal Reserve in the fourth week of this month in the form of a rate hike.
Though market anticipates that there will be a rate hike we expect a sharp sell off. Also we see a huge distribution happening on the street. But Nifty might try to attempt another shot at 5320-5350 levels. Global metals prices are extremely weak given the slow down in chinese demand.
We once again advice stick to quality midcap names and stay away from junkies
Midcaps are having a ball on the street. Better economic situation, good quarterly numbers and risk apetite along with operator activity is driving the space. Avoid Realty, Banking and Auto atleast in the next 2-3 months.
We expect two big negatives to hit the street soon. One is the another round of correction on the wall street (expecting it next week) will trigger a massive sell off in Indian markets. And the second one will be from Indian Federal Reserve in the fourth week of this month in the form of a rate hike.
Though market anticipates that there will be a rate hike we expect a sharp sell off. Also we see a huge distribution happening on the street. But Nifty might try to attempt another shot at 5320-5350 levels. Global metals prices are extremely weak given the slow down in chinese demand.
We once again advice stick to quality midcap names and stay away from junkies
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Major correction to unfold soon
US Markets managed to see green in the closing minutes of the trading session on wall street yesterday. Dow Jones after gaining as much as 140 points at
one point of time lost all the gains only to regain part of it in the last 10 mins of the session. We still stick to our 2-3 pct gain due for the US market after a severe beating. The economic readings continued to come in a weak fashion.
D-Street lagged its asian peers in terms of percentage gains yesterday and we see more under performance furing the next few days while rest of the
global markets recover. Remember Indian markets resisted the recent global equity fall. And in the next leg of global correction which we are expecting to happen some time next week Indian markets are likley to outperform the fall too.
Our periodic checks with brokerage houses reveal very limited retail participation in the cash segment. We see many junk stocks moving up in the last few days upmove. Markets though wary of the next round of RBI's rate hike might not take it easy this time. So all in all the next move seems to be inclined down. Like many other analysts we too respect the 5400 levels for Nifty above which we would be long on Indian equities. But the levels appear to be too tough for Nifty to cross over.
one point of time lost all the gains only to regain part of it in the last 10 mins of the session. We still stick to our 2-3 pct gain due for the US market after a severe beating. The economic readings continued to come in a weak fashion.
D-Street lagged its asian peers in terms of percentage gains yesterday and we see more under performance furing the next few days while rest of the
global markets recover. Remember Indian markets resisted the recent global equity fall. And in the next leg of global correction which we are expecting to happen some time next week Indian markets are likley to outperform the fall too.
Our periodic checks with brokerage houses reveal very limited retail participation in the cash segment. We see many junk stocks moving up in the last few days upmove. Markets though wary of the next round of RBI's rate hike might not take it easy this time. So all in all the next move seems to be inclined down. Like many other analysts we too respect the 5400 levels for Nifty above which we would be long on Indian equities. But the levels appear to be too tough for Nifty to cross over.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Indices likely to break the trading zone to the downside
US Markets took a break from the slide, courtesy holiday on account of Independance day. Global equities traded in a band given no economic cues across the world. Indian markets are likely to end the trading band soon.
Heading down before we inch up ??
Our answer is yes for many reasons. Despite of positive talk in media and global press we are afraid we might not be in a position to sustain the current braveheart like situation. We are still not a mature market to de-couple from the global slide. While we are not sure about the next 3-4 trading sessions where in the US might see a recovery of atleast 2-3 pct. But in the next leg of downside D-Street might outperform W-Street. So traders watch out for unexpected bump to the downside. For investors we believe this would give an enormous and infact a final oppurtunity to enter Indian equity markets for a long time to come.
RNRL - Investors burnt their fingers
Banking on the brand name RNRL shares, despite of being a shell company enjoyed market interest. The current deal between R-Power and RNRL is in the best interest of the ADAG group and least concern about the shareholders. This incident once again proves that investors should be extra catious in dealing with these shell companies no matter who the management is. Once bitten, twice shy. Among ADAG group companies we like R-Power and Reliance Media World (longer term).
Its one of those uninteresting times on D-Street but we expect bears to dance soon
Heading down before we inch up ??
Our answer is yes for many reasons. Despite of positive talk in media and global press we are afraid we might not be in a position to sustain the current braveheart like situation. We are still not a mature market to de-couple from the global slide. While we are not sure about the next 3-4 trading sessions where in the US might see a recovery of atleast 2-3 pct. But in the next leg of downside D-Street might outperform W-Street. So traders watch out for unexpected bump to the downside. For investors we believe this would give an enormous and infact a final oppurtunity to enter Indian equity markets for a long time to come.
RNRL - Investors burnt their fingers
Banking on the brand name RNRL shares, despite of being a shell company enjoyed market interest. The current deal between R-Power and RNRL is in the best interest of the ADAG group and least concern about the shareholders. This incident once again proves that investors should be extra catious in dealing with these shell companies no matter who the management is. Once bitten, twice shy. Among ADAG group companies we like R-Power and Reliance Media World (longer term).
Its one of those uninteresting times on D-Street but we expect bears to dance soon
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