The much awaited 5400 levels for Nifty is under big threat from Bulls today. Alcoa, the global aluminium giant kicked off the earnings season in the US with better than expected numbers today. All eye are on Infy but the company might not surprise on both sides. We expect the results of Infosys to be a non-event.
The only drawbacks of the current rally are the volumes be it US or India. The upmoves or pull backs in case of US markets are backed with very low volumes, while the slides are accompanied with huge volumes. Though Dow Futures are pointing an upmove tomorrow we believe tomorrow's US market might set the near term trend. Coming to India it is quite heartening to see the markets trying to de-couple from the US markets. But IIP numbers were poor and tough to ignore. We strongly believe we might be in for a surprise despite of the positive talk about new highs.
One should stick to quality stocks and avoid speculation in case of any surprise
JGS Investments is a home of expert stockmarket analysts, and premier source for technical analysts research and information on Indian Stock Markets.Just join us at Yahoo Messenger sheth_jg@yahoo.com OR Email at sheth_jg@yahoo.com
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Monday, July 12, 2010
Is a break out imminent ??
Nifty is all set to move up but one more confirmation is required today. Volumes doesn't confirm a move but the levels might confirm the same. US markets pulled back from the lows last week to close up sharply.
We are still skeptical about global equities in the extreme short term. One should wait and watch before proceeding. We expect US markets to resume sliding again this week. Indian markets on the other hand will be keenly watching the quarterly numbers.
We spotted a pick where heavy insider buying coupled with excellent fundamentals. The stock is undoubtedly a doubler from the current levels
We are still skeptical about global equities in the extreme short term. One should wait and watch before proceeding. We expect US markets to resume sliding again this week. Indian markets on the other hand will be keenly watching the quarterly numbers.
We spotted a pick where heavy insider buying coupled with excellent fundamentals. The stock is undoubtedly a doubler from the current levels
Friday, July 9, 2010
Nifty to attempt the sky again but all odds
favour the bears. US Markets moved up again to clock back to back gains but on poor volumes. This is a classic text book pattern where in the pull backs are happening during low volume days or viceversa.
Nifty might gear up to attack the much awaited 5350 band but we believe Nifty is against all odds. And remember in the next leg of down cycle we will outperform the global markets. Every other analyst on TV is bullish with midcap fever spreading across the board.
Negatives far outweigh positives in the short term and markets will look for a small reason to melt down. We are extremely bullish on Indian economy over the medium term but short term hurdles remain.
One should atleast build a portfolio keeping 3-4 years in mind in stocks which will return you 300-500 pct gains. For now midcaps rule but be aware of major speed breaker ahead
Nifty might gear up to attack the much awaited 5350 band but we believe Nifty is against all odds. And remember in the next leg of down cycle we will outperform the global markets. Every other analyst on TV is bullish with midcap fever spreading across the board.
Negatives far outweigh positives in the short term and markets will look for a small reason to melt down. We are extremely bullish on Indian economy over the medium term but short term hurdles remain.
One should atleast build a portfolio keeping 3-4 years in mind in stocks which will return you 300-500 pct gains. For now midcaps rule but be aware of major speed breaker ahead
Thursday, July 8, 2010
US Stocks jump, D-Street to follow
US Stocks as expected moved up, courtesy good earnings from Financial giant State Street. But underlying factor is Wall Street is highly oversold and looking for a reason to go up. D-Street is most likely to follow the Big brother but do not expect a big ticket rally.
Midcaps are having a ball on the street. Better economic situation, good quarterly numbers and risk apetite along with operator activity is driving the space. Avoid Realty, Banking and Auto atleast in the next 2-3 months.
We expect two big negatives to hit the street soon. One is the another round of correction on the wall street (expecting it next week) will trigger a massive sell off in Indian markets. And the second one will be from Indian Federal Reserve in the fourth week of this month in the form of a rate hike.
Though market anticipates that there will be a rate hike we expect a sharp sell off. Also we see a huge distribution happening on the street. But Nifty might try to attempt another shot at 5320-5350 levels. Global metals prices are extremely weak given the slow down in chinese demand.
We once again advice stick to quality midcap names and stay away from junkies
Midcaps are having a ball on the street. Better economic situation, good quarterly numbers and risk apetite along with operator activity is driving the space. Avoid Realty, Banking and Auto atleast in the next 2-3 months.
We expect two big negatives to hit the street soon. One is the another round of correction on the wall street (expecting it next week) will trigger a massive sell off in Indian markets. And the second one will be from Indian Federal Reserve in the fourth week of this month in the form of a rate hike.
Though market anticipates that there will be a rate hike we expect a sharp sell off. Also we see a huge distribution happening on the street. But Nifty might try to attempt another shot at 5320-5350 levels. Global metals prices are extremely weak given the slow down in chinese demand.
We once again advice stick to quality midcap names and stay away from junkies
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Major correction to unfold soon
US Markets managed to see green in the closing minutes of the trading session on wall street yesterday. Dow Jones after gaining as much as 140 points at
one point of time lost all the gains only to regain part of it in the last 10 mins of the session. We still stick to our 2-3 pct gain due for the US market after a severe beating. The economic readings continued to come in a weak fashion.
D-Street lagged its asian peers in terms of percentage gains yesterday and we see more under performance furing the next few days while rest of the
global markets recover. Remember Indian markets resisted the recent global equity fall. And in the next leg of global correction which we are expecting to happen some time next week Indian markets are likley to outperform the fall too.
Our periodic checks with brokerage houses reveal very limited retail participation in the cash segment. We see many junk stocks moving up in the last few days upmove. Markets though wary of the next round of RBI's rate hike might not take it easy this time. So all in all the next move seems to be inclined down. Like many other analysts we too respect the 5400 levels for Nifty above which we would be long on Indian equities. But the levels appear to be too tough for Nifty to cross over.
one point of time lost all the gains only to regain part of it in the last 10 mins of the session. We still stick to our 2-3 pct gain due for the US market after a severe beating. The economic readings continued to come in a weak fashion.
D-Street lagged its asian peers in terms of percentage gains yesterday and we see more under performance furing the next few days while rest of the
global markets recover. Remember Indian markets resisted the recent global equity fall. And in the next leg of global correction which we are expecting to happen some time next week Indian markets are likley to outperform the fall too.
Our periodic checks with brokerage houses reveal very limited retail participation in the cash segment. We see many junk stocks moving up in the last few days upmove. Markets though wary of the next round of RBI's rate hike might not take it easy this time. So all in all the next move seems to be inclined down. Like many other analysts we too respect the 5400 levels for Nifty above which we would be long on Indian equities. But the levels appear to be too tough for Nifty to cross over.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Indices likely to break the trading zone to the downside
US Markets took a break from the slide, courtesy holiday on account of Independance day. Global equities traded in a band given no economic cues across the world. Indian markets are likely to end the trading band soon.
Heading down before we inch up ??
Our answer is yes for many reasons. Despite of positive talk in media and global press we are afraid we might not be in a position to sustain the current braveheart like situation. We are still not a mature market to de-couple from the global slide. While we are not sure about the next 3-4 trading sessions where in the US might see a recovery of atleast 2-3 pct. But in the next leg of downside D-Street might outperform W-Street. So traders watch out for unexpected bump to the downside. For investors we believe this would give an enormous and infact a final oppurtunity to enter Indian equity markets for a long time to come.
RNRL - Investors burnt their fingers
Banking on the brand name RNRL shares, despite of being a shell company enjoyed market interest. The current deal between R-Power and RNRL is in the best interest of the ADAG group and least concern about the shareholders. This incident once again proves that investors should be extra catious in dealing with these shell companies no matter who the management is. Once bitten, twice shy. Among ADAG group companies we like R-Power and Reliance Media World (longer term).
Its one of those uninteresting times on D-Street but we expect bears to dance soon
Heading down before we inch up ??
Our answer is yes for many reasons. Despite of positive talk in media and global press we are afraid we might not be in a position to sustain the current braveheart like situation. We are still not a mature market to de-couple from the global slide. While we are not sure about the next 3-4 trading sessions where in the US might see a recovery of atleast 2-3 pct. But in the next leg of downside D-Street might outperform W-Street. So traders watch out for unexpected bump to the downside. For investors we believe this would give an enormous and infact a final oppurtunity to enter Indian equity markets for a long time to come.
RNRL - Investors burnt their fingers
Banking on the brand name RNRL shares, despite of being a shell company enjoyed market interest. The current deal between R-Power and RNRL is in the best interest of the ADAG group and least concern about the shareholders. This incident once again proves that investors should be extra catious in dealing with these shell companies no matter who the management is. Once bitten, twice shy. Among ADAG group companies we like R-Power and Reliance Media World (longer term).
Its one of those uninteresting times on D-Street but we expect bears to dance soon
Monday, July 5, 2010
Indices to move sideways as pessimism reigns
Stocks on Dalal Street are likely to open the week sideways with a negative bias, as uncertainties regarding the health of global economy continue to effect the investor sentiment.We expect the market to be lacklustre this week in line with the mood across the globe.
Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to trade in a band of 100 points for the day. Indian markets performed relatively better than their global peers in the past week. The Sensex has given up 1.76 percent for the week, while the Dow Jones index on Wall Street shed 4.5 percent for the week.It is worth noting that the Sensex was the best performer among the world’s 20 largest equity markets last quarter.
Banking stocks outperformed the rest of the pack on Friday with the sectoral index gaining 0.2 percent, while the Metals and Consumer Goods were among the worst performing sectors. losing more than 0.5 percent of their value. WIPRO and TCS were among the top gainers among the index stocks, while Sterlite Ind and Mahindra made to the top of the losers list.
A report this morning from Prudential Financial sees Indian stocks gaining 10 percent by the end of this year, extending the longest rally since 1979, as an unscheduled rate increase by the central bank won’t derail economic growth. The firm expects the rate hike to have a negative impact on the markets in the immediate short term,but demand from foreign investors might help the benchmark rebound in the second half of this year.
Among the Midcap stocks, the stock Monnet Ispat gained more than 16 percent after the sponge -iron maker agreed to sell 12.5 percent stake to Blackstone Group LP. The scrip closed at Rs 468. Nucleus Software, AMD Medplast and Persistent systems are other stocks that were among the high fliers on Friday.
Expect the benchmark index or the Sensex to trade in a band of 100 points for the day. Indian markets performed relatively better than their global peers in the past week. The Sensex has given up 1.76 percent for the week, while the Dow Jones index on Wall Street shed 4.5 percent for the week.It is worth noting that the Sensex was the best performer among the world’s 20 largest equity markets last quarter.
Banking stocks outperformed the rest of the pack on Friday with the sectoral index gaining 0.2 percent, while the Metals and Consumer Goods were among the worst performing sectors. losing more than 0.5 percent of their value. WIPRO and TCS were among the top gainers among the index stocks, while Sterlite Ind and Mahindra made to the top of the losers list.
A report this morning from Prudential Financial sees Indian stocks gaining 10 percent by the end of this year, extending the longest rally since 1979, as an unscheduled rate increase by the central bank won’t derail economic growth. The firm expects the rate hike to have a negative impact on the markets in the immediate short term,but demand from foreign investors might help the benchmark rebound in the second half of this year.
Among the Midcap stocks, the stock Monnet Ispat gained more than 16 percent after the sponge -iron maker agreed to sell 12.5 percent stake to Blackstone Group LP. The scrip closed at Rs 468. Nucleus Software, AMD Medplast and Persistent systems are other stocks that were among the high fliers on Friday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)