Keep your eye on the Big picture, but watch your step

RNRL asks Supreme Court to dismiss government’s petition on Reliance Industries gas.

Caution is going to be the mantra for the next few days as the market digests the recent spurt and awaits fresh good news. Global cues are mixed. Today, we expect a cautious start after an extended weekend. Things will be volatile given that we have the F&O expiry on Thursday

Though the overall mood is positive, the road ahead will be bumpy. The fact that we have already traveled so much since early March could bring in some apprehensions. The results are just round the corner and expectations are on the positive side. Among the big risks will be inflation and its fallout on monetary policy. FIIs will continue to play a key role.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs14.86bn in the cash segment on Friday on a provisional basis. The local funds pulled out Rs5.05bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs2.97bn. On Thursday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs26.63bn in the cash segment. The net FII investments in Indian stocks this year have crossed $9.8bn. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs1.01bn on Thursday

The deal street is buzzing with lots of M&M action happening over the past few days

Stbt Nifty Book on time

Today, we see another day of stock taking and consolidation. Global cues too are indecisive. Our advice is don’t get too euphoric. Avoid undue risks and enjoy the long weekend. The upcoming earnings season should provide an opportunity to assess and evaluate

Nifty weak Below 4945 and strong above 4980

As always there will be surprises, both negative and positive. So, brace yourself for some volatility in the near term at least


Mahindra Satyam is close to getting back multi-million multi-year contracts from Telstra and Merrill

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Autos were in limelight following a ruling by the Supreme Court on Wednesday to allow TVS Motor Co. Ltd to sell its “Flame” brand of motor bikes that compete with vehicles manufactured by its arch-rival Bajaj Auto. The stock gained more than 10 percent on this news. We like Hindustan Motors RS 24 as a speculative bet.

The stock of Orchid Chemicals suregd by more than 24 percent after receiving approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for its anti-infection drug Piperacillin-Tazobactam, in injectible form. We recommend investors to sell this stock at Rs 170 levels, as we do not see this as a major contributor to the bottom line in the long term. Hospitality sector was on fire yesterday with Kamat Hotels, Royal Orchid and Asian Hotels registering double digit gains. As mentioned in yesterday's column Rajesh Exports vaulted by 10 percent. We see RS 80 as the possible target.

We like Gati Ltd from short term perspective at RS 57, we see a short term target of Rs 70 within a week.Midcaps are likely to be on fire and the euphoria might spread to third rung stocks soon. Overall, a great day for speculative stocks and a good one for day traders in particular.

Nifty levels

Today's Above 4911.50 Mark.....Nifty Future Looks Superb....Above that Mark....Nifty Future May Flare Like Anything and May Try to Hit.............4928.50 and then.................4945.00 too in Today's Trade

Nifty Will be Bloody Only......But Only and Only Below............4866.50 Mark.....Below that Mark.....Nifty Future Will Fall Like Anything and may Try to hit...............4852.00 nd then..........4832

From Sources

Advance tax payment

Sensex scales 15-1/2 month high on surge in Q2 advance tax payment


Higher advance tax payment by some of the top firms in the second installment of 15 September 2009 means their profits may rise in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. As per reports, State Bank of India, India's biggest commercial bank by branch network, has paid 71.5% higher advance tax at Rs 1,832 crore in the second quarter of 2009-10 over the corresponding period last year.

Software major TCS has reportedly paid 315% higher advance tax at Rs 220 crore in the second installment. Tractor major Mahindra & Mahindra has reportedly paid 540% higher advance tax at Rs 112 crore in the second installment.

Tata Motors paid advance tax of Rs 100 crore in the second installment, much higher than Rs 19 crore last year. But Larsen & Toubro paid Nil advance tax agains Rs 150 crore paid in the corresponding period last year.

Among public sector banks like Bank of India paid Rs 470 crore as against Rs 230 crore and Bank of Baroda paid Rs 412 crore compared to Rs 255 crore. Private sector lender Yes Bank paid Rs 58 crore as against Rs 33 crore in the corresponding period last year.

During the second quarter BPCL and Lupin paid Rs 312 crore and Rs 49.7 crore respectively as against Rs 40 crore, and 11.4 crore in the same period a year ago.Ambuja Cements paid an advance tax of Rs 150 crore for the July-September quarter vs Rs 70 crore in the previous quarter.

Also boosting the sentiment was a surge in the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) business confidence index to 118.6 points in the June 2009 quarter, up 37 points from previous quarter, when it was at its the lowest level since February 1998. The business sentiments have improved reflecting signs of economic recovery, NCAER said.

The think-tank said economic conditions are further expected to improve in the coming months as the impact of the Union budget 2009-2010 (FY 2010) begins to be realised. The increased government spending may provide some impetus to the domestic investment and consumption.

Comments by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D Subbarao after trading hours that the central bank will not unwind its accommodative monetary policy before ensuring recovery may further boost bourses tomorrow, 16 September 2009. Subbarao also said the RBI has to take a call on supporting recovery and stemming inflationary pressures.

A trigger for the stock market's rally in the past few days has been expectations that the government will release pay arrears to government employees in the second and final installment ahead of big festivals in October 2009. The payout would boost demand for consumer goods, appliances, cars and motorcycles. Consumer demand is a key driver of the Indian economy.

Remaining 60% of the arrears have to be paid as the government implemented the new pay scales with effect from 1 January 2006 after the 6th Pay Commission report was approved by the Cabinet with modifications. The government in August last year had decided to pay the arrears in two instalments of 40% and 60%. According to government calculations, the total arrears are estimated to cost Rs 29,373 crore.

Midcaps in spotlight

FIIs make purchases in equities for the fifth day in a row

Inflow of Rs 3377.50 crore in five trading sessions

Stocks on Dalal Street are likely to trade up on opening bell after closing in red on Monday. We expect the Sensex to gain nearly 100 points or nearly 0.7 percent for the day. Midcap and Smallcap stocks were in demand yesterday and this trend is likely to extend

Auto and PSU stocks were the leaders in Monday's trade led by Tata Motors, PNB and SBI. We see Power and IT sector in Tuesday's trade.As mentioned in yesterday's column, Textile firm Himatsinka Seide firmed up on the bourses and registered a 20 percent gain on huge volumes. We recommend investors to book partial profits around Rs 49 to RS 50 area. Other firms in the textile business, like Provogue also palyed catch up yesterday. But the volume is something that is looking unusual and one can expect a speculative move in this stock. So traders could book profits in Himatsinka and swtich to Provogue for some quick gains.

PNB Gilts is my favorite for the day today as we hear rumors of PNB looking to sell its stake in the company.The stocks is at a key technical level and if it manages to break Rs 32 we might see a target of Rs 42 in thsisstock. Hindustan Motors is another speculative play as we believe that this might catch traders fancy as this is the Auto sector, which is hot now and also has a realestate story attached to it. A good bet for traders with risk appetite

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