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HOT Picks - RAJESH EXPORT : Our Target Intact : 1250

On the down side I see a good support at 4860 and 4741. Market not expected to go below this. If it all happened that market happens to break 4741 by any reason then panic selling is expected to emerge which will straight away drag down the market to 4485

On the upper side I see a minor resistance at 5056 then 5125, then 5256 and then a good resistance at 5355. If we happen to break this resistance then we will straight up movement to 5550 and then 5650

Today market looks in uptrend but every rise will be accompanied by selling. I will have a strong watch on Nifty future, it is showing some signal of improvement. Total strategy only for clients

Indian markets are likely to pull back strongly with momentum stocks taking the front seat.

Pick No 1- Sell Akruti Nirman (bse code 532799) - Currently trading at 1165.7 in BSE. We would give a sell signal at this level taking stop loss 1200. Below 1153 it is expected to show down momentum. Final target and final stop loss only for clients. Clients will exit only after our SMS. You people see the market and trade accordingly. Advise you to buy or sell this position seeing the market conditions

Pick No 2 - Buy Lic Housing (bse code 500253) - Looks good at this level. Currently trading at 298 in BSE Ideal stop loss would be below 292... Final target and stop loss would only for clients. Clients will exit only after our SMS. You people see the market and trade accordingly. Advise you to buy or sell this position seeing the market conditions

Pick No 3 - Buy Remsons India (bse code 530919) - Looks good at this level. Currently trading at 35 in BSE, Ideal stop loss would be below 33.5... Final target and stop loss would only for clients. Clients will exit only after our SMS. You people see the market and trade accordingly. Advise you to buy or sell this position seeing the market conditions

PNB, Patni computers and Vishal Retail are the stocks in the news today


Punjab National Bank is planning an IPO of the wholly owned subsidiary PNB Housing Finance Ltd in the coming months to help fund its business growth.The decision is expected to be taken within the next 6 months.PNB Housing needs more capital to scale up its operations and that the bank does not want to infuse more capital in the subsidiary.So they have decided to go through the equity route

Patni Computer Systems Ltd said on Thursday its board will consider a share buyback at a meeting on Feb. 5 and Feb. 6. The stock closed at 232 on Thursday.

Vishal Retail Ltd which became public in June 2007, reported a third quarter net profit of Rs15 crore on better margins and increased sales.The company, which opened 27 new stores in the October-December quarte. The company has 82 supermarkets and specialty stores in more than 50 cities

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On upper side immediate resistance is faced at 5280 and 5330 break of which can take us to 5413.

On downside good support is seen at 5115 and then 4963. The Nifty should save this level.

Our view Nifty should play between 5115 - 5280,and will also look at 5115 and 5280 level. Any reversal or break out from these should be considered an opportunity.

Keep eyes on - RNRL, Union Bank, Reliance energy

Deccan Aviation and Kingfisher Airlines together plan to mop up RS 250 million from the equity markets to fund expansion. The UB Group owns 50 per cent stake in Deccan Aviation wants to raise the funds as soon as possible. One might expect the stock to fly today. the stock closed at rs 184 on Wednesday.

IndoAsian Fusegear Ltd is looking out for foreign acquistions to expand in the switch gear market. The company is in advanced talks with two German firms for a consideration of Rs 100 crores. The firm plans to raise capital via FCCB route and preferential issue to promoters.

Varun Shipping is betting big on the shipping Industry by mulling an expansion plan. It plans to spend close to half a billion dollars on acquiring new fleet for Offshore operations. It is worth noting that the company is planning its foray in to rig operations, which is a high margin business. the stock closed up 15% at Rs 76.50 yesterday

Pick No 1- Buy emami ltd (bse code 531162) - Currently trading at 265.5 in BSE. We would give a buy signal at this level anywhere between 264 - 267. Ideal stop loss should be taken 261.. risky trader can take stop loss at 258. Final target and final stop loss only for clients. Clients will exit only after our SMS. You people see the market and trade accordingly

Pick No 2 - Buy Godrej Consumer (bse code 532424) - Looks good at this level. Currently trading at 113.90. Ideal stop loss would be below 107. Final target and stop loss would only for clients. Clients will exit only after our SMS. You people see the market and trade accordingly

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There is no effect in US markets in spite of cut in interest rate by .75% by Federal Reserve to improve the US economy and DOW , NASDAQ closed down by -128.11,-47.75 respectively. However the position of the Asian market and Aus market seem to be good as they have recovered and running in positively. Due to these reason Indian markets are looking to give recovery today but that shall be an instant recovery only. The reason behind this is that this recovery shall be an artificial recovery. Today there may be opening of Bombay sensitive index by +400 pts and may recover to the extent of 750 pts to 1000 pts. Technically the first resistance for sensitive index shall be 17,420.00

These stocks might look for a rebound

Oswal chemicals, Wire & Wireless, Chambal Fert Nagarjuna Fert, Bongaigaon Ref, RNRL and Ispat Industries are the stocks looking desparately for a rebound after having their head cut off in the past three sessions.

When RBI meets next tuesday to discuss the monetary policy Mr.Y V Reddy, RBI governor will be under tremendous pressure to cut rates given the worst conditions prevailing. Also there is a urgent need to fill the gap in interest rates between US and India, created by Mr.Bernake's 75 basis point cut yesterday.

The bigger the gap, the quicker will be the inflows resulting in more liquidity and a stronger rupee which in turn puts the Indian Central bank in a fix. Canada Reserve Bank take a cue from their neighbours announced a 25 basis point cut.

Investment Picks GMR Infrastructure,RPL,Sterlite Industries,Axis Bank,L&T


News Snippets:

SBI group's consolidation is likely to be delayed.

L&T may form a JV with US arms major Lockheed Martin to develop Mark 41 Vertical Launching Systems in India.

NTPC and Gail might have to pump in more money into the Dabhol power project.

Tata Motors has signed a development contract with Chrysler’s electric vehicle unit to develop and market an electric version of the Ace in the US.

Tata Power, GMR Energy and GVK Power are eyeing New Delhi's ’s Rs1.75bn first waste-to-energy project.

An Empowered Committee of Secretaries has allowed ONGC Videsh to acquire stake in Venezuela’s San Cristobal oilfield.

NTPC is looking to invest Rs17bn in a Jharkhand coal mine.

GAIL and Engineers India have jointly submitted an EoI to Oman Gas Company for setting up a gas processing plant in Oman.

United Spirits has launched Dalmore and Jura from its Whyte & Mackay portfolio along with W&M blended scotches.

Piaggio is planning to increase production and launch new scooters in India.

Sobha Developers is planning to develop a 156-unit luxury residential project in North Bangalore.

Infosys and Wipro may bid for specific verticals of Capgemini.

Supreme Court has rejected a petition seeking stay on construction of DLF Cyber city in Gurgaon.

Arvind Mills is planning to invest Rs4bn to expand its retail business in four years.

GHCL is planning to demerge its business into three listed entities.

Jet Airways is to set up a Maintenance Repair and Overhaul facility and a flight catering facility.

Aegis Logistics intends to set up 70 outlets of Auto Gas LPG in Andhra Pradesh.

Delay on the part of Essar Oilfield Services in deploying a semi-submersible rig has affected GSPC’s exploration plan in its deepwater K-G Basin block.

IOC is setting up an LPG import facility at the land allotted to it by Cochin Port Trust at an investment of Rs1.7bn.
SIDBI has reduced its prime lending rate by 0.5% and its deposit rates by 0.25%.

Tanishq, the jewellery division of Titan Industries is embarking on a retail expansion with an aim to increase sales by 50% to Rs30bn in FY09.

A consortium comprising Reliance Energy and Spanish firm CAF has bagged the project to operate and manage a 22.7 km metro rail link between New Delhi city centre and international airport for 30 years.

Huawei Tech, Telefon AB LM Ericsson and Nokia Siemens Networks are pursuing a supply contract worth ~US$4.8bn with Tata Tele.

Apollo Tyres expects revenues of US$350mn from Hungarian unit in the second year of operations.

HDFC Bank is looking to foray into investment banking in the next 3-4 months.

PNB may quit JVs with Principal Financial Group in the asset management and insurance broking businesses.

India added 8.17mn new telecom subscribers in December, taking overall telecom density to 23.89%.

The RBI has temporarily allowed banks to increase their ceilings on capital market exposures.

The Government is planning a Rs70bn package to revive the irrigation sector.

The Government is planning to relax few ECB norms for Ultra Mega Power projects.

Freight rates for bulk commodities like coal and iron ore could go down by 3-5% in the forthcoming railway budget.

Indian Railways has managed to negotiate a discount of Rs150 per kilolitre of HSD from oil marketing firms for 2008.

The EGoM on SEZs will discuss a finance ministry proposal on February 4, to impose export obligation in excess of 50% on such zones.

Patiance needed in the market

Today's Strategy


If you go to study the reason behind Monday market fall, you will find several. But if you had follow technical you would have never get caught or you would have exited with minor loss.


Lets come to a point. How does market look tomorrow ?


If you survey it closely you would see that market had recovered at the last half an hour trade, this is one of the positive sign.


But seeing the European markets I don't expect a positive opening, unless Asian markets comes out with miracle.


Let us assume that the market goes down. In this keep a watch on 5085 a first technical support, if we happen to break this level and trade below this level for a couple of minutes we might see 4980. These two are most important level to watch, if market is expected to bounce back then bounce back should come from any one of these levels. If these two levels fails to give any reaction then we might see 4600 - 4650.


If at all we happen to move towards positive direction, then the first resistance we find it at 5375 not a very hard resistance then 5412, 5495 but we find a solid resistance at 5612 which seems hard to be broken in tomorrow trade if at all market move up with force which is not expected.

NorTechnicals nor Fundamentals work in a panic market hence lets wait and see what happens on Tuesday. Its the best chance a Investor with time horizon of 6 – 12 months should utilise to add stocks

Pick No 1 - Buy Dabur (BSE Code 532683) - Currently trading at 101. Let market settle then buy this stock around 98 keeping a stop at 94. No doubt this stock looks good but market doesn't look good so play cautiously any buy position. The final target and final stop loss will be given only to clients.

Pick No 2 - Buy Cinemax (BSE Code 532807) - Currently trading at 112.70, let market settle buy this stock 102 keep a stop at 92 this stock looks good to buy at this level. Market doesn't look good so play cautiously any buy position. The final target and final stop loss will be given only to clients.

Live calls during market hour are only given to client. Some time we give free calls in week and market updates for free. For this add sheth_jg@yahoo.com

TODAY IS BANKING DAY

NIFTY JAN 5900 PUT is flat, OI of NIFTY JAN 5800,5700,5600,5500 PUTS rises indicating more downside still remain. I expect on Monday if mkt trades negative till 12 noon then margin calls of retail investors will be triggered. I expect NIFTY SPOT will come down to below 5600 levels in intraday. I prefer to watch OI of NIFTY FUT and OI of NIFTY JAN 5900 PUT at these levels then decide whether to go long or to wait. I also expect bounce back of NIFTY SPOT from 5550-5600 levels.I m expecting expiry of JAN SERIES above 5900 levels in current situation but more clear picture of expiry will emerge next week
Click http://niftyintraday.googlepages.com/nifty50 to View Live Nifty Intraday Chart

The stocks that hit the headlines today are ICICI Bank, Idea Cellular, Gujarat Alkalies, Parsvnath Developers, Wockhardt and many more including AP Petrochemicals etc..

ICICI Bank Ltd to dilute 15% holding in its subsidiary ICICI Securities Ltd through an IPO and private placement soon.
Wockhardt today announced the demerger of R&D division which will be effective from Jan 01, 2009 following the foot steps of its peers like Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma & Nicholas Piramal
Essar Steel is in the race for Canadian based magnetite iron ore company Millennium Iron Ore Range.
Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company's (SPARC) new molecule (NCE- SUN 1334H - anti allergy) has advanced in to phase III of clinical trials
Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL), will invest Rs 2,000 crore on developing Cybercity near Kochi.

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GAP DOWN OPEN

The market may edge lower tracking weak global markets. US stocks fell sharply on Thursday, 17 January 2008, as news of a plunge in regional factory activity and a hefty loss at Merrill Lynch further clouded an increasingly dire view of the US economy. In one of the strongest signals yet that the economy is at high risk of contracting, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said mid-Atlantic factory activity has slowed much more than expected to levels that typically signal recession.

The Q3 December 2007 results announced by India Inc. so far have been more or less in line with market expectations. Stock-specific activity may rule the roost in the near term based on expectations of results of individual firms. Some of the top brokerages expect a slowdown in earnings growth of 30-Sensex firms in Q3 December 2007.

Just a while ago, Wipro reported 11% growth in net profit as per US accounting standards to Rs 826 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. The other key results scheduled today are ITC and HDFC.

The government will release the inflation figure for the year through 5 January 2008 today. Annual inflation, based on the wholesale price index (WPI), stood at 3.5% in the year through 29 December 2007, same as the year through 22 December 2007.

Meanwhile, no decision was taken yesterday, 17 January 2008, at a meeting of the group of ministers (GoM) on fuel prices. GoM meet again later. A hike retail fuel prices will result in increase in inflation.

In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were down by between 0.1% to 2.32%.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 306.95 points, or 2.46%, to close at 12,159.21, on Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 39.95 points, or 2.91%, at 1,333.25. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 47.69 points, or 1.99%, at 2,346.90.

FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 2267.40 crore on Thursday, the day when Sensex lost 167 points. Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 734.75 crore on that day.

FIIs were net buyers of index futures to the tune of Rs 611.60 crore on Thursday. They net bought index options worth Rs 279.71 crore. FIIs sold individual stock futures to the tune of Rs 1220.25 crore on that day.

TCS beats the street, bulls retreat

Today, Nifty has support at 5,842 and resistance at 6,027 and BSE Sensex has support at 19,521 and resistance at 20,189
On Wednesday, the FIIs stood as net buyer both in equity and debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs5,209.90 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs249.10 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,984.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs45.10 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs225.80 Crore and net debt was Rs204 Crore.

TCS beats the street with exemplory results with a 19% jump in the net profit. The company is more focussed on emerging economies and reducing the exposure to US. Growth in operating margins of IT biggies is definitely worth noting with TCS contuining the trend intiated by Infosys, offsetting the strong Rupee.
US Markets could not sustain at higher levels and continued to drift down.

Indian Markets are likely to consolidate today and Midcaps are showing signs of resistance. Reliance Power and Future Capital IPO continued to take the sheen away from the secondary markets with huge interest from retail investors oversubscribing the issues 13 and 132 times respectively

We are not cautious on Indian Markets at these levels except for volatility. We believe markets are likely to move up after a decent consolidation. But major up moves cannot be expected with global turmoil buzz doing rounds. Patience pays

ICICI Bank is expected to double on value unlocking in the next one year

Megasoft is doing exceedingly well but can be picked only from a one year
perspective

Wockhard is expected to jump soon on the demerger news.

News Snippets:

Vedanta Resources is panning to invest over US$12.5bn in metals, mining and power generation by 2012.

REL gets nod from ministry of environment and forest for a 4,000MW power project in Maharashtra.

Infosys BPO expects to close three integrated IT-BPO deals in the range of US$50-150mn each in the next 3-6 months.

Wipro denies negotiations to takeover or merge with French IT company, Cap Gemini.

Maruti to roll out its Rs10-lakh luxury passenger car, Kizashi, in 2010.

NTPC to foray into power equipment manufacturing after getting a clearance from the board for a JV with Bharat Forge.

PTC raises Rs12bn through QIP.

JSW Steel gets 8 mining concessions in north of Chile.

Apollo Tyres is planning to set-up a greenfield passenger car radial tyre facility in Hungary.

Tata Steel enters in JV with Oman-based Al Bahja group for development of Uyum limestone deposits at Salalah.

Infosys BPO to set-up a new unit for its foray in the domestic business.

M&M will invest Rs1bn to make diesel engine for Scorpio, to comply with the US emission norms.

National Fertilizers, RCF and KRIBHCO to form JV to explore the possibility of investments in nitrogenous, phosphatic and potassic sector.

Sterlite Energy is planning a pre-IPO placement of US$1bn in next couple of months.

MTNL to invest Rs15bn to expand GSM and broadband operations.

NMDC likely to get Navratna status.

Simplex Infrastructure to foray into thermal power generation through a JV.

LIC Housing Finance plans to raise Rs3-4bn by issuing fresh shares to select investors in next 3-4 months.

GHCL to expand soda ash capacity in India by 2,50,00 tpa by 2010.

Deccan plans to launch international flights from August.

Gitanjali Gems forms five wholly-owned subsidiaries for developing SEZs.

Royal Orchid Hotels to open its first Ramada brand hotel in India by April.

The Government is likely to confer Navratna Status to CONCOR soon.

Hindustan Sanitaryware to foray into home interior solutions retail business.

Mahindra Holiday & Resorts to offer 1% stake to Jacob Ballas India fund through a private placement for around US$10mn.

The annual export target of US$160bn is likely to be reduced to US$150bn on account of the sharp appreciation in the rupee.

Apparel exports register a decline of 14% in 2007.

Finance Ministry is considering cutting import duties on ferro nickel from present 5% to 2%.

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