Thursday, January 17, 2008

TCS beats the street, bulls retreat

Today, Nifty has support at 5,842 and resistance at 6,027 and BSE Sensex has support at 19,521 and resistance at 20,189
On Wednesday, the FIIs stood as net buyer both in equity and debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs5,209.90 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs249.10 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,984.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs45.10 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs225.80 Crore and net debt was Rs204 Crore.

TCS beats the street with exemplory results with a 19% jump in the net profit. The company is more focussed on emerging economies and reducing the exposure to US. Growth in operating margins of IT biggies is definitely worth noting with TCS contuining the trend intiated by Infosys, offsetting the strong Rupee.
US Markets could not sustain at higher levels and continued to drift down.

Indian Markets are likely to consolidate today and Midcaps are showing signs of resistance. Reliance Power and Future Capital IPO continued to take the sheen away from the secondary markets with huge interest from retail investors oversubscribing the issues 13 and 132 times respectively

We are not cautious on Indian Markets at these levels except for volatility. We believe markets are likely to move up after a decent consolidation. But major up moves cannot be expected with global turmoil buzz doing rounds. Patience pays

ICICI Bank is expected to double on value unlocking in the next one year

Megasoft is doing exceedingly well but can be picked only from a one year
perspective

Wockhard is expected to jump soon on the demerger news.

News Snippets:

Vedanta Resources is panning to invest over US$12.5bn in metals, mining and power generation by 2012.

REL gets nod from ministry of environment and forest for a 4,000MW power project in Maharashtra.

Infosys BPO expects to close three integrated IT-BPO deals in the range of US$50-150mn each in the next 3-6 months.

Wipro denies negotiations to takeover or merge with French IT company, Cap Gemini.

Maruti to roll out its Rs10-lakh luxury passenger car, Kizashi, in 2010.

NTPC to foray into power equipment manufacturing after getting a clearance from the board for a JV with Bharat Forge.

PTC raises Rs12bn through QIP.

JSW Steel gets 8 mining concessions in north of Chile.

Apollo Tyres is planning to set-up a greenfield passenger car radial tyre facility in Hungary.

Tata Steel enters in JV with Oman-based Al Bahja group for development of Uyum limestone deposits at Salalah.

Infosys BPO to set-up a new unit for its foray in the domestic business.

M&M will invest Rs1bn to make diesel engine for Scorpio, to comply with the US emission norms.

National Fertilizers, RCF and KRIBHCO to form JV to explore the possibility of investments in nitrogenous, phosphatic and potassic sector.

Sterlite Energy is planning a pre-IPO placement of US$1bn in next couple of months.

MTNL to invest Rs15bn to expand GSM and broadband operations.

NMDC likely to get Navratna status.

Simplex Infrastructure to foray into thermal power generation through a JV.

LIC Housing Finance plans to raise Rs3-4bn by issuing fresh shares to select investors in next 3-4 months.

GHCL to expand soda ash capacity in India by 2,50,00 tpa by 2010.

Deccan plans to launch international flights from August.

Gitanjali Gems forms five wholly-owned subsidiaries for developing SEZs.

Royal Orchid Hotels to open its first Ramada brand hotel in India by April.

The Government is likely to confer Navratna Status to CONCOR soon.

Hindustan Sanitaryware to foray into home interior solutions retail business.

Mahindra Holiday & Resorts to offer 1% stake to Jacob Ballas India fund through a private placement for around US$10mn.

The annual export target of US$160bn is likely to be reduced to US$150bn on account of the sharp appreciation in the rupee.

Apparel exports register a decline of 14% in 2007.

Finance Ministry is considering cutting import duties on ferro nickel from present 5% to 2%.

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Friday, January 11, 2008

INFOYSYS >>>>>>>>>>

Infosys Q3 net up at Rs 1231 cr Infosys Technologies has announced its third quarter numbers. It has posted consolidated net profit of Rs 1231 crore for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 1100 crore in previous quarter. Net sales went up to Rs 4,271 crore from Rs 4,106 crore QoQ. Infosys numbers are higher than guidance

Hindustan Motors (Rs.72.75) is likely to gain over the medium term on speculative news flow.

What the FIIs are doing

FIIs were net sellers of Rs2.5bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday while the local institutions were net buyers of just Rs3.89bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs6.64bn.

On Wednesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs2.75bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs2.01bn on the same day.

News Snippets:

Tata Motors launches its small car ‘Nano’ priced at Rs1 lac ex-showroom.

L&T has bagged Rs35.6bn order to construct residential and commercial buildings across the country.

Wipro Infotech wins a nine-year business transformation contract worth Rs24bn from Aircel.

Unitech gets regulatory approval to raise US$700mn through a public offer in the Singapore Stock Exchange.

SBI and ICICI Bank apply to the monetary authority of Singapore for a qualified full banking (QFB) license.

SBI Life Insurance plans to hit capital market by March 2009.

RIL reveals an extensive rig hiring plan to exploit the potential of its exploratory blocks.

GAIL signs a pact with Coal India to set-up a coal gasification project for production of a gas used to make fertilizers.

Wockhardt to mull de-merging its new drug R&D unit.

BPCL plans to raise Rs30bn through an IPO of Bharat Oman Refineries in next 3-4 months.

L&T gets Tamil Nadu Government nod to set-up an integrated shipyard.

Amtek Auto is closing to acquiring companies in US and Europe.

Bajaj Auto to invest Rs3bn to raise its holdings in KTM Power Sports to 25% from 14.5% currently.

Bharati Shipyard plans to set-up a greenfield shipyard at Usgaon near the Dabhol port.

Strides Arcolab has stopped operations of its loss-making US plant where it manufactured soft gelatin capsules.

Gati ties up with Air India to lease five cargo planes.

IRB Infrastructure Developers wins the contract to develop the fifth phase of NHDP at an estimated cost of Rs125bn.

Rolta plans to acquire a US firm offering business software services.

Granules India expects to get approval from European regulatory authorities for its new tablet facility.

Sterlite Technologies, a company promoted by Vedanta Group, may soon foray in the niche market of semiconductor manufacturing.

The DoT has issued LoIs to Unitech, Datacom, S Tel, Swan Connect Communications, Shipping Stop Dot Com, Idea, Tata Tele and Shyam Telelink.

DoT has cleared applications from Idea, Vodafone Essar and Aircel for granting 2G spectrum.

CBDT introduces new schemes to extend 100% deduction on profits derived by the activity of developing or operating an industrial park.

Indian Railways loadings register an 8% yoy growth for April-December 2007.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

STILL THINKING TO SUBSCRIBE

Today, Nifty has support at 6,182 and resistance at 6,357 and BSE Sensex has support at 20,548 and resistance at 21,149.

Taking a leaf from the US markets Indian markets are likely to move up further and 21k is definitely possible. Tech stocks are looking solid and the Q3 numbers from IT companies IGATE and Mastek came out strong. We expect the IT pack to outperform the market with the second rung taking the lead. Midcaps will continue to reel underpressure for some more time thanks to the earlier Euphoria many stocks are trading way above the fundamentals. Large caps will tested for performance though intial results from companies like Axis bank looks good. We believe Large cap valuations are at par and major moves are only in case of positive surprises but liquidity is likely to drive markets crazy soon. Watch for another round of feast from midcaps in the next 10 days. Have a great trading day

Technology stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq registering its first positive day in nine, as bargain hunters returned to a market reeling under the weight of worries with regard to a possible recession. The Dow has seen more than 500 points taken away so far this year

OUR PICKS- NTPC , IT STOCKS, NICOLASPIRMAL, HDFC, HDFCBANK, CESCMPHASIS, 3IINFO, POLARIS,RELCAPITAL AND HDIL - NIFTY TOWARDS NEW HIGH SO HOLD LONG WITH STRICT SL

What the FIIs are doing

FIIs were net sellers of Rs3.92bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Wednesday while the local institutions were net buyers of just Rs855.1mn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs8.9bn.

On Tuesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs10.53bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs125mn on the same day.

News Snippets:

Bajaj Auto is looking at acquiring a car company to break into the higher segments of the market and plans an electric car for Europe.

Goldman Sachs is in advanced talks to invest in the Mahindra group.

ICICI bank to unlock value in four of its subsidiaries and the process could begin in the next six months.

Aditya Birla Nuvo will raise Rs42bn through preferential allotment of warrants to the Kumar Mangalam family in the next 18 months.

ITC plans to launch new energy bars and breakfast cereals to extend its product profile.

UTI Mutual Fund to offer ESOPs to all its employees.

Unitech to go for US$1.5bn QIP in the next couple of months.

Tata Power and Reliance Energy are among the six short- listed companies by the Maharashtra Government for the proposed Dhopave project.

RIL and RNRL have moved the Mumbai High Court over the gas supply dispute between the two companies.

PE players JPMorgan and IDFC are eyeing a minority stake in Hyderabad-based logistics player, Seaways.

Kingfisher Airlines would be permitted to fly abroad this year.

European aerospace giant EADS is acquiring 24% stake in India Aero Ventures, promoted by ex-BPL mobile chief Rajeev Chandrashekar for Rs1.3bn.

The DoT is reconsidering the applications of six companies for telecom licenses, which it had rejected on Tuesday.

The Government assures TDSAT that enough spectrum would be available for existing as well as new players after allotting radio frequencies to RCOM.

Private cement producers in Tamil Nadu agree to set aside two million bags per month for economically weaker section and lower middle class people at a price of Rs200 per bag.

Pharma companies unlikely to get sops for R&D outfits.

Stainless steel companies have asked the Government to increase customs duty on value added stainless steel cold rolled coils to prevent China from dumping into India.

The Government may bring procurement contracts of defence ministry under tax collected at source (TCS) in this budget.

Indian Bank Association members to meet on interest rate cut.

Commerce Minister Kamal Nath says that the Government might consider importing more cement to meet the demand – supply mismatch situation

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Tech Mahindra(Rs.1,103.35) Q3 is expected to beat market expectations.

BUY INFOYSY TILL RESULT target 1800+

IT stocks were in the limelight ahead of Infosys result on January 11

Today, Nifty has support at 6,162 and resistance at 6,348 and BSE Sensex has support at 20,523 and resistance at 21,091.

What the FIIs are doing

FIIs were net buyers of Rs5.71bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday while the local institutions were net buyers of just Rs920.8mn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs1.48bn.

On Monday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs809mn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs300mn on the same day.

Metal stocks could be under some pressure amid reports that the Government is considering sifting to an Ad Valorem rates of royalty on all sorts of ores. Unitech, HFCL, BPL, RCOM, Idea and Shyam Tele could gain as a financial daily says that these companies will get LoIs from the DoT soon. What they will do with it remains to be seen. 3i Infotech, Aztecsoft and MindTree will attract attention amid reports of some M&A action. TVS Motor might gain as the Supreme Court has refused to stay the sales of its 125 cc bike, the Flame

News Snippets:

Bajaj Auto unveils the prototype of its small car; company to roll out its LCV by 2009.

Power Grid Corp plans to enter entertainment and telecom business.

Maruti Suzuki India has ruled out any possibilities of price cut for Maruti 800.

DoT is set to issue Letter of Intent to new players; Unitech, HFCL, Sterlite amongst those likely to get LoIs. (FE)

ABG Shipyard is raising Rs8bn through QIP to double capacity at its Surat facility.

Reliance Industries is to invest Rs200bn to develop KG basin.

ONGC looking for an alliance with overseas players to bid for blocks offered under NELP VII round.

BHEL in tie up talks with overseas shipyards for building offshore rigs.

Aditya Birla Nuvo will consider raising fund through preferential allotment to promoters and promoters group.

Vedanta Resources plans to invest Rs500bn over next few years in metals, mining and power generation.

NDTV may sell 25-30% in its UK based to NBC Universal; deal valued at Rs6.5-8bn.

ICICI Bank and SBI have together acquired 3% in Jaiprakash Power Venture, subsidiary of Jaiprakash Associates.

Adani Enterprises plans to raise Rs30bn through the QIP route in first quarter of current year.

Ford India is expanding its manufacturing capabilities to make a small car for India.

Bartronics India raises US$50mn via FCCB issue.

Omaxe is in talks with Starwood Hotels & Resorts of US; to invest Rs20bn in hotel projects.

L&T may stop production of 3-4 products due to cheaper imports from China.

SBI picks up 2% stake in Mahindra Holidays and Resorts for Rs800mn in an pre-IPO placement.

Planning Commission recommends state government should grant more licenses for distilleries, imported and country liquor and breweries.

The government is considering to raise price of petrol and diesel by Rs2 and Rs1 per liter respectively.

Passenger vehicle sales grew 8% in December as compared to last year.

Farm sector NPAs could get budget relief.

The Slum Rehabilitation Authority to call for financial bids for the Rs93.5bn Dharavi Redevelopment Project.

Government has issued notification that effectively allows only sugar mills to produce ethanol from sugarcane.

PM acknowledges rising interest rates and appreciating rupee have caused economic slowdown and job losses; constitutes group to suggest revival.

Sluggish performance by crude oil sector leads to decline in core sector growth to 5.3% in November.

Sugar production for 2007-08 seen below projected levels due to delays in crushing and lower yields.

The Board of Approvals of the union commerce department ha cancelled the ‘in-principal SEZ’ status granted to the New Kolkata International Development, the SPV formed by Indonesia’s Salim group.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

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OUT BTST - RCOM ,ICICI ,SIEMENS ,STERLITE ,GITANJALI

TODAY PICKS - KEI INDUSTRIES,KS OIL,JAYANT AGRO ,IT STOCKs

Today, Nifty has support at 6,213 and resistance at 6,374 and BSE Sensex has support at 20,634 and resistance at 21,102

On Monday the FIIs stood as net buyer both in equity and debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs4,549.40 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs730.80 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,040.60 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs209.80Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs508.80 Crore and net debt was Rs521Crore

Results Today: Kopran, Patel Engineering, Prism Cement, Shree Cement, Supreme Industries and TVS Electronics. Shares of Refex Refrigerants might gain as the company has reported a 53% growth in topline and 47% in the bottomline for the quarter ended December.

News Snippets:

ICICI Bank and ADAG Group are planning to set up syndicates in London’s Lloyd’s Market, one of the larges reinsurance markets in the world.

The Power Ministry has asked Reliance Power to advance commissioning of units at Sasan UMPP.

Pantaloon Retail is planning to increase Future Money outlets from 95 to 400 by 2010

ICICI Bank is planning to list its investment banking and broking subsidiary, ICICI Securities.

The Government’s move to allow GAIL to market entire PMT gas has impacted gas supplies to GSPC and Gujarat Gas.

Reliance Energy and GMR are the only Indian companies short listed for buying US$2bn Tuas Power owned by Temasek.

ADAG is to tie up with US lignite miner, North American Coal Corporation to ensure fuel supply to its 28,200 MW projects.

Gitanjali Gems has purchased ‘Nakshatra’ brand from Diamond Trading Company for Rs1bn.

Nitco Tiles is planning to set up a new tile manufacturing unit in Gujarat.

The proposal of merger of State Bank of Saurashtra with the State Bank of India will be taken up by the Cabinet on January 10.

Fortis Financial Services is planning to make an application to RBI to surrender its NBFC licence.

Sical Logistics has received Madras High Court approval to demerge its non-logistics business into a separate subsidiary.

GNFC plans to invest Rs780mn for setting up six eco-friendly wind power generators.

RNRL may buy out some mines in Indonesia and Australia for dedicated fuel supplies to support the Krishnapatnam UMPP.

Cranes Software has announced the acquisition of US based specialized auto consulting and product development firm, Engineering Technology Associates.

States have arrived at a consensus to bring about uniform duty structure for liquor across the country.

The Finance Ministry is understood to have allocated Rs310bn for fertilizer subsidies and concessions during FY09.

Cement manufacturers in Tamil Nadu have agreed to take a decision on reducing prices before February 10.

FDI inflows into the country surged to US$15.7bn in FY07 and the target for FY08 is US$30bn.

The Empowered Group of Ministers will meet on January 17, to discuss fuel price hike.

ULCRA would be completely scrapped in the country as AP, West Bengal and Jharkhand agree to repeal the act.

The Government has denied plans to privatize Dabhol project.

The Government would consider tax sops to promote low cost housing in the country.

The Maharashtra Government has agreed to withdraw export duty on ethanol.

Newsprint prices may increase by ~20% yoy in FY08.

The Government is set to import 1.2mn tons of vegetable oils in the first quarter of 2008.

Monday, January 7, 2008

BUY IT SECTOR IN DIPS

NIFTY - Moving Averages — The 50 dma = 5870, 20 dma = 6021 and 10 dma = 6089. The index is trading above its averages; declines during the week should find support around the averages
Resistance — The index faces resistance around 6300 levels.

Conclusion — Intra-week declines should find support around 6185-6089 band

Business Standard reports that 4 big banks State Bank of India (SBI), ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda (BoB) and Bank of India (BoI) are set to book mark-to-market losses on the exposures to CDO's with ICICI being the major loser with $1.5 billion exposure to subprime. We have to wait for confirmation as ICICI Bank denied the same last time on simillar reports. Tata Motors will be rolling out the much hyped one lakh car and the stock is likely to show action. Traders stay away from this market as volatility will squeeze your pockets

Gammon India(Rs.777.05) is looking great for 4 figures

HOT PICKS - ELDECO HOUSING,SATHAVAHANA ISPAT,HINDMOTORS
What the FIIs are doing

FIIs were net buyers of Rs160.1mn (provisional) in the cash segment on Friday while the local institutions pumped in Rs5.07bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs9.08bn.

On Thursday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs7.25bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were also net buyers of Rs4.9bn on the same day.

News Snippets:

Jet Airways to go for a private placement or QIP to dilute promoters stake by 5%.

M&M may pull out of the Rs40bn three way Chennai joint venture with Renault and Nissan.
Chrysler has initiated negotiations with M&M for a partnership in India.

ONGC seeks Rs160bn worth of incentives for its proposed 15mn ton pa refinery at Kakinada.

London based Caparo group to invest Rs35bn to set up an automotive and aerospace components park in Andhra Pradesh.

SBI, ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda and Bank of India to book mark-to-market losses on the exposures of their foreign offices to credit derivatives.

Reliance Industries seeks a minimum supply of 3.6mn scmd of gas for its petrochemical plants from Panna-Mukta and Tapti fields.

BSNL to form a separate tower company early this year; may lease out 40,000 towers to private companies.

ADAG plans to bring all its proposed overseas power generation projects under Reliance Power; group evaluates options to make power equipment.

SAIL scouting for new iron ore mines; applies for prospecting and mining leases.

BHEL plans to boost exports six-fold by 2012.

Gitanjali Gems on look out for more buy outs in US, the largest jewellery market in the world.

Reliance Power may invest in Ratnagiri Gas and Power if private companies allowed in the erstwhile Dabhol project.

Indian Oil’s 330km Paradip-Haldia crude oil pipeline to go on stream in six weeks.

Reliance Industries may offer rigs to ONGC in two or three locations in 2008-09 on a sharing basis.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals will sell half the poly tetra fluoro ethane (PTFE) output of its Dahej plant to an European collaborator.

HPCL has raised Rs2.9bn from sale of oil bonds.

PE firm General Atlantic may buy 10% stake in Essar Power.

PE firm would pick up 15% equity stake in Mahindra Forgings.

PFC plans SPV to offer consultancy services across various sectors.

Canara Bank may acquire a bank this year.

DoT doubts Spice Telecom’s eligibility for licenses in 20 circles on lack of the required net worth.

Indian Railways hikes iron ore freight, less than two months prior to railway budget.

Inflation rises to 3.5% for week ended December 22nd, as vegetables become costlier.

Ethanol may get ‘declared goods’ status in Budget.

Fuel prices may rise after January 17th when PM’s ministerial panel on commodity prices meets to approve the hikes.

Government expects investments worth Rs2tn in the aviation sector in the next 10 years.

Government plans to set up a national electricity fund with a corpus of Rs1tn for investment in the transmission and distribution sector.

Government to earn Rs70bn from spectrum fee in 2008-09, without impacting tariffs.

Himachal Pradesh Government invites bids from domestic and global companies for 1,481MW hydel units.

Finance Minister asks public sector banks to cut deposit & lending rates by 50bps.

Friday, January 4, 2008

OUR PICKS

GMR Infra
GMR Infra consolidated in a range of 235-
252 levels last week.The 14-day RSI
indicates the stock might witness an
upside breakout of the range in the
coming sessions which will attract fresh
buyers. The stock is likely to face immediate
resistance at around 270 levels. If it is able
to sustain above that levels, we might see
it testing higher levels of 298-300 in a medium-term
scenario. The 50-day EMA level is placed at around 225
levels which is unlikely to be pierced in the coming sessions.
The 21-day EMA level is placed at around 240 levels while
the 8-day EMA level is placed at around 243 levels.
Investors are advised to accumulate the stock in the range
of 245-250 levels for a short term target of 298-300. All
long positions in the stock should be protected with a
stop loss placed below 225 levels on a closing basis.

Tata Steel
Tata Steel has been trading firm for the last few trading sessions, and
closed at all time high levels of 932 levels. Futures have seen rollover
of long positions close to 95 percent. Call options of 940, 960 strikes
have seen addition of open interest, indicates expectations of further
upward movement and in put options 920 and 900 strikes added open
interest indicating the expectations of a limited downside in the stock
price. The following strategy is recommended on Tata Steel